Does Obama stand a chance in Michigan?

[ej2mm15]

Seriously. The state has the highest un-employment in the country and it is growing and I doubt that they still are so pro Obama now that it is still getting worse. If The economy stays the way it is or even gets slightly better Obama will lose. Tops if Romney becomes the nominee I am fully prepared to stick on a label saying

"Safe Republican"

[DariusNJ]

No, Michigan will still lean Democrat by a couple of percentage points.

The 2008 result was an anomaly, but there's no way it'll be safe Republican in the near future. There's Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, Lansing, etc that provides a strong base of support for any Democrat. Plus, the suburbs of Detroit are a lot bluer now than they were 15-20 years ago.

That's not to say a Republican can't win obviously, but there's no evidence that suggests that Michigan will be a strong Republican state in 2012.

[pogo stick]

It'll be a close, but clear Obama victory.

[tmthforu94]

If the economy is still as bad as it is now, Obama will lose Michigan, unless Republicans nominate someone really bad. If it get's a little better, it will be close. If Michigan actually get's better, and maybe go below double-digit unemployment, it will be safe for Obama.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I can see it happen if...
 
...Obama is murdered right before the election, nobody cares cause he has approval ratings in 11%, an amendment that allows foreginers to be president is passed during his term, Granholm runs as the Dem nominee now that Barack is dead against Romney or Pawlenty, the economy is even worse.



Joke aside, Michigan is kind of like the Democrats' Texas. It might switch, but Obama would need to fail big time for it to happen and the Republicans would need a a strong candidate, and even then it would be close. 

We Dems like to think that Texas will be won by us, and the GOP that Michigan will come to them, but it's not likely to happen for a while. Although I wouldn't mind to see a Republican win Michigan in 2012 as long as we get Texas instead >


 

[Nym90]

This is kinda like asking if the GOP nominee in 2012 stands a chance in Kentucky (a state that was closer in 2008 than Michigan was).

[tmthforu94]

This is kinda like asking if the GOP nominee in 2012 stands a chance in Kentucky (a state that was closer in 2008 than Michigan was).

The economy tanking before the election is what caused it. Minus all the economic problems our country faced in the final 2 months before the election, Michigan would have been closer. A lot of MI voters were just voting for something different, and they could very well do that again in 2012.

[Lief 🗽]

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

[ej2mm15]

Do pple forget that McCain was ahead in  the state as recently as Spring 08?

[Farage]

I think that Grandholm in michigan is like kathleen blanco in louisiana. Because of her, the dems may lose ground in the future in michigan. BTW lots of rednecks and reagan democrats live in macomb county and all accross the state. Maybe with a gop victory in the governor elections, Michigan may become republican's virginia or indiana ...

[Keystone Phil]

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

The thread is about 2012.

[Padfoot]

Do pple forget that McCain was ahead in  the state as recently as Spring 08?

Do people forget that in Spring 08 the Democratic primary battle was still going strong and many Clinton voters were still claiming they'd jump ship if she wasn't the nominee?  Perhaps they also forgot Obama did virtually no campaigning there until after the primary was completely over since he wasn't on the Michigan primary ballot.

Seriously though, I don't see how the Michigan voters are going to turn against the Democrats when the Democrats are still so pro-union and they just bailed out the state's biggest industry.  Unless Obama makes driving a car illegal he's going to win Michigan.

[Rob]

A lot of Republicans were shocked when Granholm won by double-digits in 2006, although voters "blamed her for the bad economy." Fact is, a lot of unemployment means a lot of people receiving benefits provided by Democratic legislation. We will carry Michigan again by blaming those responsible for the economic collapse- the very conservative corporate bosses.

[Lief 🗽]

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

The thread is about 2012.

Yes. If a candidate wins a state by 17 points in one election, then he surely at least has "a chance" at winning that state again in the next election and will likely win it again. There's no reason why there would be a 30 point swing in the state.

[Holmes]

Is Michigan a Republican's wet dream or something?

[Keystone Phil]

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

The thread is about 2012.

Yes. If a candidate wins a state by 17 points in one election, then he surely at least has "a chance" at winning that state again in the next election and will likely win it again. There's no reason why there would be a 30 point swing in the state.

You were addressing it as if it was about 2008 by using the past tense.

Sure he has a chance but you then go on to say he'd win it comfortably.

How the hell can you say he's likely to win it again so soon? Sure there's a reason why there would be a swing - if the economy is still in the toilet or if it gets even worse. People around here need to stop thinking that politics is governed by trend rules.

[Rob]

Is Michigan a Republican's wet dream or something?

Yep, along with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire...l

[Lief 🗽]

Is Michigan a Republican's wet dream or something?

Yep, along with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire...l

Suffice it to say, they go through a lot of sheets.

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

The thread is about 2012.

Yes. If a candidate wins a state by 17 points in one election, then he surely at least has "a chance" at winning that state again in the next election and will likely win it again. There's no reason why there would be a 30 point swing in the state.

You were addressing it as if it was about 2008 by using the past tense.

Sure he has a chance but you then go on to say he'd win it comfortably.

How the hell can you say he's likely to win it again so soon? Sure there's a reason why there would be a swing - if the economy is still in the toilet or if it gets even worse. People around here need to stop thinking that politics is governed by trend rules.

Not saying it's likely he'll win it again (though I think the odds are better that he'll win it than he'll lose it in 2012), but to say that there's no chance he'll win a state he won by 17 points in the last election, or that a state that has voted D for 16 years now and was D+10 in 2008 is suddenly SAFE REPUBLICAN is just ridiculous.

[Vepres]

2008 was an unusual year. Under other circumstances it would've been about the same as Minnesota and Pennsylvania in terms of voting.

[Keystone Phil]

Not saying it's likely he'll win it again

...but...you did.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Totally agree

I hate the arrogance on both sides when it comes to the future political landscape.

[War on Want]

Obama will most likely win Michigan, I don't think there is much doubt about this. I don't see people in the state that voted for Kerry, going over and voting for the party that said no to the GM bailouts. So far the GM bailouts aren't really popular in Michigan but they are much more popular than in the rest of the country. Most likely the company will begin to rebound in some way, along with the state's economy during the next four years. Most likely the GOP candidate will have said something about the bailout that would look poor in a Democratic attack ad.

I am not saying that the Democrats have a lock here but they have a good chance of holding the state.

[Lunar]

Something in me thinks that Obama might "stand a chance" in Michigan.  I don't know what it is.  I guess I'm just a reckless prognosticator.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Of course he does.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Of course he will win, unless his approval is below 35%.

[pbrower2a]

Romney makes it closer; Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Barbour will be disasters in Michigan -- but such will be the least of their concerns.