NH-R2000/DailyKos: Hodes trails Ayotte but leads Bass

[Tender Branson]

Kelly Ayotte (R): 39%
Paul Hodes (D): 38%

Paul Hodes (D): 42%
Charlie Bass (R): 37%

The Research 2000 New Hampshire Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland from July 13 through July 15, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/7/15/NH/319

[Badger]

What the heck is up with Hodes? He represents half of a heavily blue-trending state where he comfortably won reelection last year, but can't seem to climb out of the high 30's or low 40's against retread candidates or a little-known state appointee. I know it's over a year before the election, but he really should be doing better than this.

What gives? Has he done something lately to tee off his constituents? Is there some reason we should expect "undecided" NH voters to heavily lean Democratic on election day (kinda like Jersey)?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What the heck is up with Hodes? He represents half of a heavily blue-trending state where he comfortably won reelection last year, but can't seem to climb out of the high 30's or low 40's against retread candidates or a little-known state appointee. I know it's over a year before the election, but he really should be doing better than this.

What gives? Has he done something lately to tee off his constituents? Is there some reason we should expect "undecided" NH voters to heavily lean Democratic on election day (kinda like Jersey)?

I think you are right about there being an undecided factor here. However unlike New Jersey were they are prone to vote Dem 99% of the time in close races, there votes are more up for grabs in NH because they are for the most part Independents. So it will be up to how well Ayotte is at electoral politics.

[Lief 🗽]

Has Ayotte ever been elected to or ran for election to anything?

[Lunar]

no, but she's received some high-profile news stories in the past and the title of "Attorney General" is probably worth a view votes by itself.

What the heck is up with Hodes? He represents half of a heavily blue-trending state where he comfortably won reelection last year, but can't seem to climb out of the high 30's or low 40's against retread candidates or a little-known state appointee. I know it's over a year before the election, but he really should be doing better than this.

What gives? Has he done something lately to tee off his constituents? Is there some reason we should expect "undecided" NH voters to heavily lean Democratic on election day (kinda like Jersey)?

A 2-term Congressman that represents only half of the state is not going to get high name recognition.

and he seems kind of boring.

[Badger]

What the heck is up with Hodes? He represents half of a heavily blue-trending state where he comfortably won reelection last year, but can't seem to climb out of the high 30's or low 40's against retread candidates or a little-known state appointee. I know it's over a year before the election, but he really should be doing better than this.

What gives? Has he done something lately to tee off his constituents? Is there some reason we should expect "undecided" NH voters to heavily lean Democratic on election day (kinda like Jersey)?

I think you are right about there being an undecided factor here. However unlike New Jersey were they are prone to vote Dem 99% of the time in close races, there votes are more up for grabs in NH because they are for the most part Independents. So it will be up to how well Ayotte is at electoral politics.

Well, yeah, I didn't mean to imply NH undecided voters could be anywherenear as Dem-leaning as Jersy's, but I wondered if experts on NH politics might know if there was a less extensive trend like that in NH to explain Hodes crappy polling numbers.

[Badger]

no, but she's received some high-profile news stories in the past and the title of "Attorney General" is probably worth a view votes by itself.

What the heck is up with Hodes? He represents half of a heavily blue-trending state where he comfortably won reelection last year, but can't seem to climb out of the high 30's or low 40's against retread candidates or a little-known state appointee. I know it's over a year before the election, but he really should be doing better than this.

What gives? Has he done something lately to tee off his constituents? Is there some reason we should expect "undecided" NH voters to heavily lean Democratic on election day (kinda like Jersey)?

A 2-term Congressman that represents only half of the state is not going to get high name recognition.

and he seems kind of boring.

It shouldn't be bad, though. To half the state he's "Our Congressman", and he can't be that unknown to the other half of a geographically small state like NH sharing much of the same media markets I'd guess.

At any rate, he should have better recognition numbers than an appointed state officer, even and AG.

[HAnnA MArin County]

He's still within the margin of error and that's a large number of undecideds but you have to remember that New Hampshire is a very independent-minded state. I think oh what's his face said it best during the New Hampshire Democratic Primary when he said that people in New Hampshire hand over their vote like a gift they have to wait and really get to know the candidates before they make up their mind. I'd still give the edge to Hodes but it's really interesting to see an appointed GOP official by a Democratic Governor doing so well against a Democratic incumbent congressman in a state that's trending blue in a still relatively anti-Republican national atmosphere.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He's still within the margin of error and that's a large number of undecideds but you have to remember that New Hampshire is a very independent-minded state. I think oh what's his face said it best during the New Hampshire Democratic Primary when he said that people in New Hampshire hand over their vote like a gift they have to wait and really get to know the candidates before they make up their mind. I'd still give the edge to Hodes but it's really interesting to see an appointed GOP official by a Democratic Governor doing so well against a Democratic incumbent congressman in a state that's trending blue in a still relatively anti-Republican national atmosphere.

It will be close thats all I will say, much closer than it would be without her, thats for sure. There are still a lot of unkowns about her, such as fundraising and compaigning skills. Hodes still has a slight advantage based on that. I think in the end though we will come out ahead unless she really sucks at electoral politics, then all bets are off.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hodes' biggest ace in the hole is John Lynch. He'll likely win re-election again with 65-70% of the vote, which will be a boon to the rest of the Democratic ticket.

[Dan the Roman]

2 things

1. Hodes is not a strong candidate. He won only around 38% of the vote in 2004 against Bass, and his victory in 2006 was on Lynch's coatails. He is a good political operator, and he works very hard, but he lacks any real charisma and is the sort of person who runs for office perenially in hopeless districts. A person who might be a good congressman if elected, but who usually is not. Hodes has the advantage of a D after his name, which is a major advantage in New Hampshire these days, a New Hampshire that has changed politically to such an extent that generalities like "independent" or "libertarian" make no sense. It is not moving in a Democratic direction for either of those reasons, but because there is a rapidly growing segment of the electorate that votes straight D in everything regardless of candidates or other factors. This exists in all the New England states, perhaps most weakly in Maine, but the voters who have been moving the state to the left are definitly not "libertarian" nor particularly "independent".

2. Ayotte is a rookie. She can be all things to all people right now, but this in itself is a danger. Ideologically she seems to be doing this well, hiring Bill Cohen's former COS, which is a real good move. More dangerously however is the potential for a Maccaca style-error. Not because she is racist or believes stupid things, but because her very inexperience make her prone to gaffes, and is likely to make the media watch her like a hawk for such actions. I fully expect Daily Kos and the like to attempt to push 3 or 4 "attempted scandals" before they get one that works, but there is a high likelihood they eventually will.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Didn't expect to see it that close. Guess Hodes really did make it in because of the straight-ticket option.

[Lunar]

I don't actually consider 40-40 to be inherently neck-n-neck or anything, depending on the makeup of the undecided voters.   Both are in a strong posish, natch.  But either could be more authentically ahead... if that makes sense, like if that 20% were mostly Obama or McCain voters.

[pogo stick]

I think the GOP might actually have a shot in holding this race

[cinyc]

It shouldn't be bad, though. To half the state he's "Our Congressman", and he can't be that unknown to the other half of a geographically small state like NH sharing much of the same media markets I'd guess.

At any rate, he should have better recognition numbers than an appointed state officer, even and AG.

Not necessarily - if the AG is of the grandstanding type (like Spitzer or Blumenthal and countless others nationwide), the AG likely gets more TV play than a mere Congressman - and probably more than every elected official other than the state's governor or a very prominent US Senator.  Especially in a small state where there's not a ton of other news.  (That most of New Hampshire's residents are in the Boston TV market with only 2 local stations complicates that calculus a bit, though.)

[Badger]

Here's Hodes' big problem: While beating Ayotte 48-31 in his own (2nd) district (and he arguably should be doing better, he's losing 47-28 in the 1st district! This is a district that went 53-46 for Obama.

This same poll give Obama a 62-30 Favorable/Unfavorable rating statewide, so it's apparantly not a GOP-friendly sampling error. Hodes numbers in each district are similar (though slightly better) in this poll in a match up with Charlie Bass. This goes beyond merely being boring or unknown: it appears eastern NH (the 1st) actively dislikes Hodes. Any New Hampshire experts out there able to explain why?