2040 electoral map

[Psychic Octopus]

What's with red Louisiana?

I have a feeling Alaska and Louisiana are red states going  blue. ( Blue states going red on Atlas)

Ah ok, thats just a little... unusual.

[12th Doctor]

Here's a likely possibility :

In 2013 Illegal aliens are deported, Arizona, Texas and other border states  stop trending to the left.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2040 Map

Green are toss ups

And the country undergoes massive economic collapse, as the boomers age with an ever decreasing working population to pay for them.  The elections of the 2020's will likely be absolutely dominated by this issue.

But in 2017 with Republicans in complete control of everything after Obama's dismal second term, Paul Ryan's road map for America's Future is adopted with slight modifications, making Social Security and Medicaid permently solvent as well as simply the tax code. The elections of 2020's serve as a refrendum on the huge success of this program. Large waves of legal highly skilled immigrants come to the country and propell America into an economic boom. Republicans win landslides in 2020 and 2024. The Dems seize the White House due to voter fatique in 2028 but lose after one term in 2032. The Republican gets reelected in 2036. Mild recessions occur in 2023 and and 2031-2032. A stock market crash occurs in 2027 but its similar to 1987 in that it has little impact on the booming economy.  The 2040 election is close but the winner however gets to deal with a severe Recession approaching levels similar to the current one.

Here, allow me to redirect you:

http://www.scififorum.org/dreamer/index.php

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here's a likely possibility :

In 2013 Illegal aliens are deported, Arizona, Texas and other border states  stop trending to the left.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2040 Map

Green are toss ups

And the country undergoes massive economic collapse, as the boomers age with an ever decreasing working population to pay for them.  The elections of the 2020's will likely be absolutely dominated by this issue.

But in 2017 with Republicans in complete control of everything after Obama's dismal second term, Paul Ryan's road map for America's Future is adopted with slight modifications, making Social Security and Medicaid permently solvent as well as simply the tax code. The elections of 2020's serve as a refrendum on the huge success of this program. Large waves of legal highly skilled immigrants come to the country and propell America into an economic boom. Republicans win landslides in 2020 and 2024. The Dems seize the White House due to voter fatique in 2028 but lose after one term in 2032. The Republican gets reelected in 2036. Mild recessions occur in 2023 and and 2031-2032. A stock market crash occurs in 2027 but its similar to 1987 in that it has little impact on the booming economy.  The 2040 election is close but the winner however gets to deal with a severe Recession approaching levels similar to the current one.

Here, allow me to redirect you:

http://www.scififorum.org/dreamer/index.php

My point is we have no idea what is going to happen 5 years let alones decades from now. He didn't say that all immigrants would be kicked out, he said illegal ones. Which actually have no benefit to social entitlements cause they recieve more in benefits then pay in taxes, cause they are poor. Whereas wealthier, highly educated immigrants contribute more in taxes then they recieved in benefits from social programs. So I think you are going a little overboard, in fact damn near insulting when suggesting that I am naive enough to believe that what I say will definately come true. This whole thread has descended to joke levels and so there all kinds of the wall responses. I felt I would give the extreme response in the opposite direction of what you suggested(which clearly disconnects with facts regarding Immigration).  Deportation of illegal Aliens will have no effect on Social Security, this is a lie being peddled by the open borders lobby. Now if you deport all immigrants that of course is a problem, but I don't remember anyone suggesting that. Granted there is a problem with Social Security but the causation you have between that and deportation of illegals is illogical. You might want to try out that forum yourself, cause you are just as off base as I am. Or maybe I am naive cause I beleive there is a policy solution to the problems you mentioned short of the massive pain in exchange for little or no improvement which everyone seems to prefer.

Please don't insult me Soulty, If there is one thing I can't stand about my fellow Pennsylvanians its there sheer arrogance.

[King]

If the Republican Party stays the way it is as the baby-boomers and Gen Xers die social trends continue., then they will be a third party by 2040.

[Lunar]

I didn't realize how many illegal immigrants were voting.

[Devilman88]

This is how I see things happening:

2012: In a 50/50 election...

2016: In a 50/50 election..

2020: In a 50/50 electon...

2024: in a 50/50 election:

2028: In a 50/50 election..

[Mechaman]

2040:

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party wins it's third consecutive election and epic landslide with the ticket of Scott A. Medley (JT-OK) and David H. Stern (JT-MN). Despite his massive electoral landslide, Scott Medley loses his home state of Oklahoma.

US Senator Chelsea Clinton (NY)/US Governor Justin Rockefeller (PA)
Former US Governor Josh Romney (CA)/US Senator Larissa Thune (SD)
Secretary of State Scott Medley (OK)/Speaker of the House David H. Stern (MN)

[Person Man]

Will we even have a United States in 2040? Will I even be alive to care?

[feeblepizza]

The first time I run for POTUS will be 2032, but I'll loose badly, so by 2040 I will be Governor of Indiana. I won an incredibly close election as an independent in 2036 and will be hanging by a thread. My state will vote Democrat, as I endorse a center-right third-partier and a plurality occurs.

[Oakvale]

The first time I run for POTUS will be 2032, but I'll loose badly, so by 2040 I will be Governor of Indiana. I won an incredibly close election as an independent in 2036 and will be hanging by a thread. My state will vote Democrat, as I endorse a center-right third-partier and a plurality occurs.

lololololol

[justW353]

The first time I run for POTUS will be 2032, but I'll loose badly, so by 2040 I will be Governor of Indiana. I won an incredibly close election as an independent in 2036 and will be hanging by a thread. My state will vote Democrat, as I endorse a center-right third-partier and a plurality occurs.

lololololol

[Derek]

http://

[memphis]

I'd be interested to see how many EVs people think each state will have by then. Will Michigan be down in single digits? Will any of our current at large seats ever get a second representative?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Not finished...

[frihetsivrare]

Key:
Tossups are no change states
Red 50% is +1
Red 70% is +2
Red 90% is +3
Blue 50% is -1
Blue70% is -2
Blue 90% is -3

[Antonio the Sixth]

I did this map sometimes ago, representing the Electoral College structure in the 2030-2040 years. The shades doesn't indicate percentages, but the closeness of the state ( light=leaning, average=solid, dark=safe ). This map is in a situation of toss-up election, so you should correct it if you plan to make it a democratic or republican victory.

Why is california not more competetive?

Republican's right-wing shift has made it trend continuously toward democrats since 1984. Unless this changes, I see no reason for California getting closer, especially with the whole western States shift toward democrats.

[tpfkaw]

If the country shifts towards the left, the Republicans/right-wing party will shift towards the center, while the Democrats will shift to the left, and vice versa. It's absurd to project permanent majorities for a party.

[RJEvans]

Okay, this is what I've calculated based on this population projection. NOTE, it is NOT 2040, but 2050. I looked for state projections to 2040, but could not find any. The Census Bureau projects the US population in 2050 will be about 439 million. I used the closest number in this report http://www.fairus.org/site/DocServer/pop_projections.pdf?docID=901, which projects 444 million people with a low-trend immigration curve. As you can see there are large population growth in the South West due to immigration.

Keep in mind, this electoral map has assumes a House size of 437, not 435.



I'll say Texas and Virginia are swing states, while the Great Lakes area more Republican (with the exception of Ohio).

Slightly larger map: http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a214/MasterRegal/2050ElectoralMap.png

[ej2mm15]

Based off trends from 2008-1972.

[opebo]

Based off trends from 2008-1972.

Good map.  I'm only confident about those I've coloured here:

The Gray ones could go either way.

[tpfkaw]

[5280]

Okay, this is what I've calculated based on this population projection. NOTE, it is NOT 2040, but 2050. I looked for state projections to 2040, but could not find any. The Census Bureau projects the US population in 2050 will be about 439 million. I used the closest number in this report http://www.fairus.org/site/DocServer/pop_projections.pdf?docID=901, which projects 444 million people with a low-trend immigration curve. As you can see there are large population growth in the South West due to immigration.

Keep in mind, this electoral map has assumes a House size of 437, not 435.



I'll say Texas and Virginia are swing states, while the Great Lakes area more Republican (with the exception of Ohio).

Slightly larger map: http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a214/MasterRegal/2050ElectoralMap.png

Honestly, you think Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Nebraska don't gain another 2 more electoral votes or so? The Dakotas would benefit a couple more also, Colorado needs at least 2 more added to the ten. New Mexico might get 1 electoral vote.

The only states that lose electoral votes would be CA, NY, MI, IL, OH and some other ones in the northeast.

[TeePee4Prez]

So there was a mention of a strong 3rd party for that year.

The idea behind this map is that the Democrats solidify their support with minority groups (African Americans, Latinos, ect) as well as most left leaning folks. The republican party gets pulled further right and in the end, moderate republicans split off to form a sort of moderate conservative/libertarian leaning party shown here in grey that's more competitive outside the ideologically pure and shrinking base of the old republican party. The new moderate party is helped by the leftward march of the democrats over the years and ends up picking up most moderate and conservatives outside the south. Third partys have never done well in the south unless they were based there, but still, the combination of this new party and demographics shifts, pushes the region to be more competitive overall between the dems and repubs.

A couple things that people might try to call me out for:
Mississippi-3rd party influence and the fact that the youth vote here is very democratic leaning today could easily put it in the dem column by 2040.
Texas-Growing latino population but maturation of the cities could do this.
Connecticut/Rhode Island-The new moderate party ends up filling the void that moderate republicans once filled, and opts to take a big anti-corruption stand (and has credibility on the issues) to help grab these two.
New Hampshire-So the moderates get CT and RI, why not NH? Easy, by 2040, NH will be about where Rhode Island is today in being effectively a bedroom state for Boston. Add in the seepage of liberalism from Vermont and you got a solid dem state.
Utah-I gave it to the new party mostly because the republicans having not done anything for the mormons of the state in a while and thus they jumped at a chance to try a different alternative to the democrats. To be honest I don't know enough about Utah to really pin it down well.
Montana-I have this weird feeling that Montana might turn into another Vermont situation. Once solidly conservative, but because it was far enough out of the way and had the space, gets invaded by dems whom eventually saturate the politics. Probably moved from California. Folks wanting something a little less arid then NV, AZ, or UT, and not as urban as Colorado will likely be by that point.

Hope people like it!

Right idea, but a few modifications.  The new "moderate" GOP in grey has the Northeast and High Plains along with the Southwest and Florida.  I just don't see RI as such a state.  Same with MA.  Just too pro-labor and Catholic.

[Türkisblau]

There needs to be a way to recognize this as the worst Atlas thread ever.

[BaconBacon96]

What in the name of God is this thing this that you've revived here. How far into the depths of hell did you go to recover this.