ABC 2nd Debate Poll - Kerry 44 - Bush 41

[The Vorlon]

An ABC News poll of debate viewers gave the edge to Kerry by the narrow margin of 44-41 percent. The survey included slightly more Democrats (35 percent) than Republicans (32 percent).

Kerry wins by 3% in an audience with 3% more Dems.

That would be a draw

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As expected, and like the VP debate, it looks like it broke almost exactly along partisan lines.

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.  

I heard that a focus group of undecideds on CNBC said Bush won, if anyone was watching CNBC.

[The Vorlon]

I wonder if SUSA will poll again like they did debate #1 and the VPs...?

[Sam Spade]

Probably.  BTW, Kerry said "The President" 68 times and said "plan" 33 times.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a link?

[Pollwatch99]

An ABC News poll of debate viewers gave the edge to Kerry by the narrow margin of 44-41 percent. The survey included slightly more Democrats (35 percent) than Republicans (32 percent).

Kerry wins by 3% in an audience with 3% more Dems.

That would be a draw

After the 1st debate performance, a draw is a win for Bush. 

[agcatter]

Sounds like a draw I guess.  No blood, although Bush may benefit some from diminished expetations.  May help some with Republican energy.  However, who knows.

[NHPolitico]

I'd call it a tie, and, further, I expect piss poor ratings for Tuesday's debate.  I don't think anyone expects to learn anything new. If you're still undecided, you're a moron.

[Reds4]

I'd say Bush won this debate on points. But he clearly won the expectations game at the very least, the question is though does it help him in the polls at all?

[Giant Saguaro]

Well, it's not 1984, but a draw in the second debate was sure a win for Reagan.

We'll have to see now next week! Who knows, but I suspect GOP folks will call it for Bush definitively and Dems will call it for Kerry without ambiguity.

[Nym90]

I'd call it a tie, and, further, I expect piss poor ratings for Tuesday's debate.  I don't think anyone expects to learn anything new. If you're still undecided, you're a moron.

Not nearly as much of a moron as someone who makes generalizations about millions of people they know nothing about.

[agcatter]

Politico, the Becker poll today showed Bush down 5 in your state.  However, I discounted it because it also showed your governor down 11.  That sounds goofy.  He's leading isn't he?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Maybe the undecided voters tuned in to learn how the candidates will reduce the deficit.  In which case, they will have to wait for the third debate.  But I'm guessing they'll be disappointed there too.

[Sam Spade]

Not very scientific, but 20 of 24 undecideds on CNN's focus group thought Bush won.

[ATFFL]

Maybe the undecided voters tuned in to learn how the candidates will reduce the deficit.  In which case, they will have to wait for the third debate.  But I'm guessing they'll be disappointed there too.

Bush and Kerry were the best dodgeball players I have ever seen with that deficit question.

I expect both of them to be briefed and prepared with a good canned answer for debate #3.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Politico, the Becker poll today showed Bush down 5 in your state.  However, I discounted it because it also showed your governor down 11.  That sounds goofy.  He's leading isn't he?

There was another NH poll released today from Franklin Pierce College showing Kerry +7 and Benson losing by 5.  I don't think either poll is all that reliable, but Benson has clearly been hemmoraging support recently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hasn't Benson been caught in lots of scandals?

This could be a sleeper loss.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I guess the may be the only flash poll we'll get tonight.  CBS clearly didn't do one, because they are now reporting ABC's results.

[ATFFL]

I guess the may be the only flash poll we'll get tonight.  CBS clearly didn't do one, because they are now reporting ABC's results.

Or they did not like their results.

I am really down on CBS, and, based on a recent memo leaked from ABC, down on their chief.  Nice to see the reporters rebelled when told to be partisans for Kerry.

[Sam Spade]

They probably didn't like the results they got.  

Supposedly they're getting an fax from a Kinko's in Abilene, TX with the correct results sometime soon.

[Nym90]

I guess the may be the only flash poll we'll get tonight.  CBS clearly didn't do one, because they are now reporting ABC's results.

Gallup's flash poll has Kerry 47 Bush 45, in a sample that before the debate favored Bush by 4 points.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Now on the USA Today site...thanks!

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Feels to me like some Reagan-Mondale redux. 

The second debate between those two was declared a draw by the MSM and the snap polls.

[Nym90]

Hmmm...  Feels to me like some Reagan-Mondale redux. 

The second debate between those two was declared a draw by the MSM and the snap polls.

And if Bush was 15 points ahead like Reagan was, then yes, this would be a win for Bush by not losing.

 A draw is a win for the candidate who is in the lead. Bush is very narrowly ahead right now (by about a point or so), but the snap polls show Kerry very narrowly won. My guess is there will be no net change in the race. Kerry did a slightly better job appealing to swing voters, but Bush did a better job energizing his base.