Japan 2009 is GO!

[k-onmmunist]

That site is so Japanese. LOL.

Today is truly a great day for Japan.

Today is truly a crappy day for Japan.

[Hash]

That site is so Japanese. LOL.

Today is truly a great day for Japan.

Today is truly a crappy day for Japan.

Yeah, I agree. Corruption is good.

[big bad fab]

Prediction: The DPJ will govern in exactly the same way as the LDP.

Also, Komeito lost pretty big.

Well, I have nothing to add....

[Marokai Backbeat]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/japan/article6815540.ece

Encouraging.

[Beet]

Yes, though what would be truly encouraging is if they were to govern by their words.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yes, though what would be truly encouraging is if they were to govern by their words.

Here's to hoping.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if they don't, they'll be an improvement. And that's with all the ex-LDPers in the party.

[ilikeverin]

The leader of New Komeito lost his seat entirely.

[Tender Branson]

Proportional Vote:

DPJ: 29.844.799 votes (42.41%)
LDP: 18.810.217 votes (26.73%)
NKP: 8.054.007 votes (11.45%)
JCP: 4.943.886 votes (7.03%)
SDP: 3.006.160 votes (4.27%)
Others: 5.711.186 votes (8.12%)

Total votes: 70.370.255

[big bad fab]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/japan/article6815540.ece

Encouraging.

That's completely stupid: Japan has never been a "market fundamentalist" country.... It's a "corporatist" one. Salazar with technology.

As for Japanese "market fundamentalism", it was: Do what I say, not what I do.

And, as for "change", "reform", "probity", I'm sure Hatoyama will be heartily supported by Ichiro Ozawa....

What is fine in this election is that Japan is, at last, emerging in "normal" politics: alternance with big promises that will be dropped almost immediately...!

[Хahar 🤔]

The leader of New Komeito lost his seat entirely.

How does that happen?

What sort of Komeito voter leaves Komeito?

[minionofmidas]

The leader of New Komeito lost his seat entirely.

How does that happen?

What sort of Komeito voter leaves Komeito?

This is how.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/news/20090826p2a00m0na015000c.html?inb=rs

[Verily]

The leader of New Komeito lost his seat entirely.

How does that happen?

What sort of Komeito voter leaves Komeito?

As Lewis rather cryptically implies, his local seat was held primarily through LDP tactical votes rather than through Komeito loyalists. (It is, after all, in Tokyo.) Komeito had an incredibly stupid policy of running different candidates on the list and for local seats, so he wasn't on the Tokyo list. When tactical unwind destroyed his majority, and he lost his seat to the DPJ, there was no route back into the legislature.

[freek]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/national/news/20090826p2a00m0na015000c.html?inb=rs

I love one of the other stories on this website:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

While this election has been described as a smashing victory of the Democrats and a crushing defeat of the Liberal Democrats, if one looks at the party list vote the change is less dramatic when compared to the 2000 election when the Liberal Democrats took 239 out of 480 seats versus 119 out of 480 in 2009.

2000 election
Komeito                   13.1       
Communist               11.3   
Democrat                   25.5   
Liberal                       9.9   
Liberal Democrat     28.7   
Social Democrat        9.4   

2009 election
Komeito                   11.4    
Communist                7.0   
Democrat                   42.4      
Liberal Democrat      26.7   
Social Democrat         4.2
People's New Party    1.7
Your Party                  4.2
New Party Daichi        0.6
New Party Nippon      0.7

In 2009 Komeito and Liberal Democrat fought in an alliance while Democrat, Social Democrat, People's New Party and New Party Nippon fought in an alliance.  Your Party indicated that they will support the Democrat after the election.

So what happened between 2000 and 2009?
Liberal Party merged into Democrat party with a small splinter Liberal party faction called the New Conservatives which then merged into Liberal Democrats
People's New Party, New Party Daichi, and New party Nippon split from Liberal Democrats in 2005 over Pension reform.  Your Party was formed in 2009 by mostly Liberal Democrat rebels and some Democrat rebels.

Once we take into account that 3.4% of the Liberal Democrat vote in 2000 was taken by People's New Party, New Party Daichi, and New party Nippon in 2009, some of the Social Democrat support in 2000 consolidated behind Democrats from 2000 to 2009, and that most of the Liberal vote in 2000 went to Democrats with a small part going to Liberal Democrats, and that Your Party should take from both Liberal Democrats and Democrats in 2009 from the 2000 baseline, we conclude that the basic levels of support of the parties in 2009 was about the same as 2000.  Liberal Democrat plus Komeito go 80 out of 180 Block seats in 2000 and got 76 in 2009.  Not bad considering People's New Party, New Party Daichi,  New party Nippon, and Your Party cut into the Liberal Democrat vote share. 

What made this election different from 2000 was the consolidation of the anti-Liberal Democrat vote behind one party in the FPTP seats.   They were split between Liberals, Democrats and Social Democrats in 2000 but now they pretty much everywhere consolidated around one candidate in each district.  If they could have achieved this level of coordination in 2005 they would have blunted a significant part of the Koizumi landslide.  In fact introspection by anti-Liberal Democrat parties after the 2005 defeat lead to this consolidation in 2009.

Granted the Liberal Democrats is a party based on being in power and its defeat might lead to its breakup.  But if it can hold together, retain the Komeito alliance, wait for parties like People's New Party, New Party Daichi, New party Nippon, and My Party to run out of steam and then fold in an election system which has tendencies to a two party system, and also wait for tensions to appear in the Democrat-Social Democrat-People's New Party-My Party to appear over foreign policy (relationship with USA) and pension reform (People's New Party dead against privatization with My Party and pro-reform elements of Democrats being for), then the various splinter Liberal Democrat vote shares will slowly return to Liberal Democrats paving its way back to power.  In theory Komeito has a lot in common with Democrats and could ally itself with them.  In practice Komeito is fighting for the same voters a Democrats and its hostile to Ozawa, old leader of the Liberal Party now the man behind the curtain for the Democrats stemming from bad relationships when Komeito and Ozawa fought inter-party battles back when they were all part of the New Frontier Party in the 1990s. 

In my view, as long as the Liberal Democrats survive the next year its future is bright for a comeback to power.