Japan 2009 is GO!

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the BBC, Parliament will be dissolved on July 21st (the day before a partial solar eclipse over Japan) with the election held on August 30th (the day before my birthday!!)

Japan 2005
Liberal Democrats 219 constituencies + 77 regionals = 296 seats
Democratic Party 52 constituencies + 61 regionals = 113 seats
New Komeito Party 8 constituencies + 23 regionals = 31 seats
Communists 0 constituencies + 9 regionals = 9 seats
Social Democrats 1 constituency + 6 regionals = 7 seats
People's New Party 2 constituencies + 2 regionals = 4 seats
Regional New Party 0 constituencies + 2 regionals = 2 seats
Independents and Others 18 constituencies + 0 regionals = 18 seats
Liberal Democrat overall majority of 112

[Meeker]

Is the LDP still about to get its ass handed to it? Or have their numbers improved?

[Verily]

Is the LDP still about to get its ass handed to it? Or have their numbers improved?

Ass-handing in the sense that they definitely will not be largest party, let alone have a majority or supermajority (as now). Everything else is as-yet unclear.

[Kevinstat]

Is the LDP still about to get its ass handed to it? Or have their numbers improved?

Ass-handing in the sense that they definitely will not be largest party, let alone have a majority or supermajority (as now). Everything else is as-yet unclear.

296 seats is 61.67% of the 480 seats total.  Is three-fifths a supermajority in Japan for most/all purposes where more than a simple majority is required?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Polls? My kingdom for some polls!

[Verily]

Is the LDP still about to get its ass handed to it? Or have their numbers improved?

Ass-handing in the sense that they definitely will not be largest party, let alone have a majority or supermajority (as now). Everything else is as-yet unclear.

296 seats is 61.67% of the 480 seats total.  Is three-fifths a supermajority in Japan for most/all purposes where more than a simple majority is required?

New Komeito is for all intents and purposes a part of the LDP. That's where the government supermajority comes from, anyway. It's a little bit misleading to say that the LDP has a supermajority... but only a little bit misleading.

[The Mikado]

Any idea where LDP's voters are going to go?  Are they going to swing towards LDP's proxy, NK, or will they vote for DPJ or third party?  Or just stay home?

[ottermax]

I'm thinking that most of the voters will just all join the bandwagon and vote DPJ. The Japanese vote a bit like lemmings. At least that's what I've heard from my Japanese friends.

[Verily]

Any idea where LDP's voters are going to go?  Are they going to swing towards LDP's proxy, NK, or will they vote for DPJ or third party?  Or just stay home?

The Tokyo elections suggest a straight swing from LDP to DPJ with the Komeito vote holding up and turnout staying high. But the voters in the countryside may behave very differently from those in Tokyo; the countryside is in much worse economic shape.

[jaichind]

Any idea where LDP's voters are going to go?  Are they going to swing towards LDP's proxy, NK, or will they vote for DPJ or third party?  Or just stay home?

The Tokyo elections suggest a straight swing from LDP to DPJ with the Komeito vote holding up and turnout staying high. But the voters in the countryside may behave very differently from those in Tokyo; the countryside is in much worse economic shape.

Bu the LDP is running on major infrastructure spending which tends to benifit certain economic players in the countryside.  If New Komeito, which has 10-12% loyal block of voters, stays with LDP, even with a dramatic swing in urban areas from LDP to DPJ (as well as SDP/JCP swing toward DPJ), it is not at all clear that DPJ will overtake LDP plus New Komeito.  Of course DPJ will most likely overtake LDP which could trigger a defection of New Komeito from LDP to DPJ or even a realignment where parts of LDP splits off to join DPJ which in turn triggers parts of DPJ to defect to SDP or LDP.  The net affect of these realigments should be to the benifit of DPJ.  All this is after the election.  I would say going by current trends the real election is after the vote.  I think LDP will do better than most think and we will end up with a deadlocked House.  Then the real horsetrading will begin.

[jaichind]

One poll from 7/3-7/4 Has DPJ 34.3% and LDP 26.3%
Yomiuri Shimbun just came out with a poll with DPJ 30.1% and LDP 24.8%.
Overall this does not seem too bad for LDP.  If New Komeito sticks with LDP they can make a fight of it.   

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo poll has 36.2% for DPJ, 15.6% for LDP, New Komeito 4.2%, JCP 3.4%, and 1.2% for SDP.  This poll is in light of infighting in the LDP over removal of Aso as leader of LDP.  New Komeito for sure will get 10-14% in the PR vote.  This poll seems to undercount New Komeito support.  If this pattern persists then LDP is toast, especially in the district seats.  I expect the LDP to start attacking the DPJ for its own corruption problems and even the score going forward.  If it cannot then we are looking at at DPJ government. 

[Verily]

New poll from Yomiuri shows DPJ: 39%, LDP: 22%. No breakdown for others on the English link, but there probably is somewhere if someone can read Japanese. I suspect, and the CW seems to be, that current actual undecideds will break heavily DPJ/other opposition and are mostly not stating which party they support because they've always voted LDP in the past and are maybe unwilling to admit their change in allegiance, particularly in areas of previously almost unanimous LDP support.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/33968/japanese_opposition_could_secure_landslide/

[Kevinstat]

Latest Kyodo poll has 36.2% for DPJ, 15.6% for LDP, New Komeito 4.2%, JCP 3.4%, and 1.2% for SDP.  This poll is in light of infighting in the LDP over removal of Aso as leader of LDP.  New Komeito for sure will get 10-14% in the PR vote.  This poll seems to undercount New Komeito support.

New Komeito is for all intents and purposes a part of the LDP. That's where the government supermajority comes from, anyway.

Couldn't New Komeito's being a part of or supporting (I'm not sure which) or having recently been a part of or supported (if they have distanced themselves from the LDP recently, or tried to) the unpopular LDP government affect their level of support?  Or is New Komeito's base of support among the support base of the LDP-New Komeito coalition more solid for New Komeito that the LDP's section of the coalition's support is for the LDP?  Or, if you consider New Komeito for the purposes of this question as just another faction of the fractuous LDP, does that faction just not happen to be one that this "greater LDP" hasn't pissed off?  Or is it a "fraction" that the LDP has pissed off but it's cohesive enough that it can take advantage of it at least technically being a separate party and go its own way or promise demands of a government (LDP or otherwise) seeking its support after the coming election that would appeal to its (New Komeito's) base and avoid a collapse in support even as the party it has been in coalition with for (correct me if I'm wrong with) a majority of its (New Komeito's) existence as a party suffers one?

In sum, to Verily and jaichind, how do you  reconcile the two partial statements of yours (which I think you'd both agree are not taken out of context) I have quoted above?  Of do what or the other of you think disagree with what the other one said?  Verily, do you think New Komeito is likely to tank in this election along with the LDP?  And jaichind, do you think New Komeito's link with the LDP is weaker than Verily suggested and weak enough to allow one party to tank and the other party not to?  I'm not trying to start a fight.  At first I thought Verily had written both posts and by the time I realized I was wrong I had already posted an earlier version of this post and I had expended a lot of time effort so I still wanted to ask if and how those two statements could be reconciled.

[Verily]

The CW seems to be that New Komeito's support is rock-solid. That is, there are few voters outside New Komeito that would even consider voting for it, but its voters will always vote for it without wavering. The Tokyo council elections seemed to confirm this: while the LDP collapsed, New Komeito's vote was stable. Think of New Komeito like a larger version of the Netherlands' SGP, but one that participates in governments. (The one exception is that the New Komeito vote is disproportionately old and so will probably decline over time.)

Politically, the link between the two parties is very strong, far too strong for New Komeito to consider voting against the LDP or supporting a DPJ government. And New Komeito is very, very conservative--regardless of how little ideology the LDP or DPJ may have, the LDP is undoubtedly the more conservative of the two (in the literal sense of opposing change of any sort) and will remain so. But LDP and New Komeito voters are different. New Komeito voters are intensely loyal to New Komeito only.

[Verily]

Anyway, new polling has the split at DPJ: 44.6, LDP: 25.4 and DPJ: 40.7, LDP: 23.5. Bear in mind that that split is significantly greater than the split in 2005 that gave the LDP an enormous majority. (2005 was 38.2-31.0; the small opposition parties together outpolled New Komeito somewhat.)

[Hash]

Is there any data for the smaller parties, aka the LDP dissident outfits, the JCP, SDPJ and so forth?

[Verily]

Is there any data for the smaller parties, aka the LDP dissident outfits, the JCP, SDPJ and so forth?

There probably is if you can read Japanese. I can't. For those of you who can: http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/election/090810/elc0908101145001-n1.htm

Anyway, excellent source for analysis: http://www.observingjapan.com/

[platypeanArchcow]

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/photos/politics/election/090810/elc0908101145001-p2.htm

Komeito: 5.8
JCP: 4.4
SDP: 2.2
PNP: 1.8
Others: 4.2
Don't know/didn't say: 11.6

In other news, I just spent a month bicycling around Japan and saw a lot of political posters.  At first, most of them were for the JCP and for a hokey cult outfit called the Happiness Realization Party.  Later on there were also a lot of DPJ and Komeito posters; I only saw a few that I could identify as LDP towards the end of the trip.  The Happies also stuffed a brochure into my hands when I was in Tokyo.  Otherwise I was mostly insulated from any politics that might have been taking place.

[Verily]

Another poll, this one from Asahi.

DPJ: 40
LDP: 21

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34063/opposition_dpj_heads_to_victory_in_japan

[Harry Hayfield]

Fun Competition for Japan 2009

Guess the winning vote share margin (as published on NHK World) and gap between largest party and major opposition. Winner will be able to say "I got Japan 2009 spot on"

[minionofmidas]

*is excited*

[Tender Branson]

Sankei FNN poll:

DPJ: 46%
LDP: 24%

Aso-Government Approval Rating:

22% Approve
67% Disapprove

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/election/090824/elc0908241146000-n1.htm

Should be pretty funny ...

[Harry Hayfield]

NHK World TV (Sky Channel 516) has the following election schedule for Sunday

NB: JST = BST +9, EDT +14, PDT + 17

12.00am JST Newsline (and every hour)
7.45pm Newsline Election Special
8.00pm Polls Close

[Tender Branson]

Huge turnout to wipe out Japan regime

POLLING analysis suggests the heaviest Japanese election turnout in almost 20 years tomorrow, with voters overwhelmingly determined to rid themselves of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.

Final large-scale polling by national news organisations has replicated last week's findings that the Democratic Party of Japan will finish tomorrow night with between 270 and 320 MPs in the 480-seat House of Representatives.

Yukio Hatoyama, 62, will become the 60th prime minister of Japan by leading the DPJ to vanquish, and possibly wreck, the Liberal Democratic Party which his grandfather Ichiro Hatoyama led as its first prime minister.

The absence of any significant swing back to the governing party in the final week of the campaign appears set to curtail the careers of as many as 200 MPs.

The LDP, which had 303 MPs in the last parliament plus 31 from coalition partner New Komeito, has been out of government only 11 months since 1955.

The likelihood of a turnout of about 70 per cent, the highest since 1990, is another bad omen for the coalition, suggesting an extension of the trend from recent local elections - big rises in voter participation, all favouring the Democrats.

Analysts yesterday predicted a 45 per cent increase in absentee voting, which closes tomorrow, the last weekend of school summer holidays, to 13 million.

And closing a week when nothing went well for the incumbents' national campaign, the Interior Ministry yesterday confirmed the July unemployment rate had established a postwar record high, 5.7 per cent from the previous month's 5.4 per cent.

That is a blow to Prime Minister Taro Aso's main claim to the electorate that the LDP is the only reliable economic steward for Japan, supported by the economy returning to growth in the June quarter, for the first since March 2008.

"There is no denying the fact that the economy is improving overall," Chief Cabinet Secretary Taleo Kawamura asserted yesterday.

But the DPJ, which plans a huge shift from public sector spending to household incomes, continued to thump the theme that the LDP, by favouring big export industries and income-depressing policies, had made Japanese families insecure and the domestic economy chronically weak.

"It is necessary to swiftly realise the domestic demand-led economic measures we are advocating," DPJ policy co-ordinator Tetsuro Fukuyama said yesterday. The other priority for Mr Hatoyama's government will be snatching administrative levers from the hands of Japan's senior bureaucracy who, in partnership with the LDP, have driven most official policy-making for most of the past 50 years.

Mr Hatoyama is expected to launch as early as Monday the new bodies intended to drive the processes, a National Strategy Bureau to set policy and budget priorities and an Administrative Reform Council to attack public sector waste and devolve bureaucratic functions from Tokyo to the regions. Both bodies will utilise outside experts and trusted public servants but will be led by DPJ Diet members.

Mr Hatoyama, who is expected to be elected prime minister by both houses of the Diet in the week beginning September 13, is also expected to name his cabinet next week.

With only five Democrats having previous senior government experience, the selection will be difficult and likely to involve some surprising draftees from outside the parliamentary party.

The likely key cabinet appointments, according to Tokyo political gossip this week, are: 77-year-old Hirohisa Fujii, talked out of retiring to return to the post of finance minister he held in the first non-LDP government; former leader and one-time health minister Naoto Kan as chief cabinet secretary, and another former party leader, Katsuya Okada, as foreign minister.

Ichiro Ozawa, the architect of tomorrow's expected victory but forced to resign the Democrats leadership in May over an electoral funding scandal, is thought likely to become DPJ secretary-general. That is nominally the DPJ's second most important position, after Mr Hatoyama as prime minister, but Mr Ozawa is likely to strengthen his already powerful grip on the party.

Mr Aso, who turned 69 during the campaign, is expected to quit the LDP leadership but, if he follows tradition, will remain in parliament.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25995923-2703,00.html