The Native American Vote

[HAnnA MArin County]

Does anyone have any statistics/data or want to offer any insight into why Native Americans vote so overwhelmingly Democratic? I realize they are a relatively small voting bloc, but they're there nevertheless, and if you look at all those counties that are majority Native American or contain Indian Reservations, Democrats win like 70-80+ percent. Why is this?

[Rob]

They are poors, and Republicans are racists.

[frihetsivrare]

While checking the voter turnout in North and South Dakota reservation counties, I noticed that voter turnout was lower in every Native majority South Dakota county in 2008 than 2004.  Ziebach County saw a decrease of 25% in number of voters.  Shannon County had a decline of 26%.  Thurston County, Nebraska also had a decline in voter turnout.  Indigenous-majority counties in North Dakota were about even between 2004 and '08.

I imagine that most of the indigenous people in that area see no hope in mainstream politics.  I understand why; as a group they have been so poor for so long under both Democratic and Republican presidents and Congresses.  Hence the Republic of Lakotah.

[Rob]

I imagine that most of the indigenous people in that area see no hope in mainstream politics.  I understand why; as a group they have been so poor for so long under both Democratic and Republican presidents and Congresses.  Hence the Republic of Lakotah.

I've always wished Nader was on the South Dakota ballot in 2000. He might have beat Bush in Shannon County!

[memphis]

Kind of depresseing how Obama couldn't win a single OK county even with their large Native population.

[pbrower2a]

Kind of depressing how Obama couldn't win a single OK county even with their large Native population.

Native-American populations in Oklahoma are more assimilated economically into the mainstream than is the case in much of the rest of America (including the Dakotas, Montana, Arizona, and New Mexico). Oklahoma may have a large percentage of Native Americans but one can only wonder how many of those have as little as 1/4 Native ancestry. At that point one could be a very pale-skinned, blue-eyed blond.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Kind of depressing how Obama couldn't win a single OK county even with their large Native population.

Native-American populations in Oklahoma are more assimilated economically into the mainstream than is the case in much of the rest of America (including the Dakotas, Montana, Arizona, and New Mexico). Oklahoma may have a large percentage of Native Americans but one can only wonder how many of those have as little as 1/4 Native ancestry. At that point one could be a very pale-skinned, blue-eyed blond.

Good point, pbrower2a. Do you know if there are any Indian reservations in Oklahoma, because it seems as though counties that have these establishments tend to be largely Democratic, but if they do, that would be a little ironic seeing as how Obama didn't carry one single county in Oklahoma.

So the general consensus is that Native Americans vote so Democratic because they're all poor? Are these just Natives who live on reservations, because there are a few Native Americans (Cherokees) who live in my home town and they are not poor at all, but I'm sure they vote Democratic.

[Alcon]

Native Americans actually aren't largely socially conservative, especially considering their income levels.  The GOP doesn't really have any issues to hook them with, 'cept oil where that's a big thing.

[bgwah]

I would guess that it has to do primarily with welfare. They also probably perceive the GOP as more racist than the Democratic Party.

[Lief 🗽]

They're largely poor (sometimes on 3rd world levels in some of the bad reservations), they're minorities generally surrounded by conservative white people, and they've traditionally been oppressed by the government/the elite. If they're not voting Democratic, the Democrats are doing something very wrong.

[minionofmidas]

Do you know if there are any Indian reservations in Oklahoma.

None in the classical sense - they were abolished, and most of the nations effectively terminated (that part was rectified later), in preparation for statehood. On account of the exact terms won at Osage, the BIA still technically considers the former Osage Reservation (identical to Osage County) a "reservation", and it frequently appears as such on maps, but that's highly misleading.
Of course, there are communities in Oklahoma that look much like reservation communities, and they might be called "the reservation" locally - just as on large reservations overrun by white settlement elsewhere (Wind River, Flathead...) the Native enclaves get called that, but that's something else again.

While checking the voter turnout in North and South Dakota reservation counties, I noticed that voter turnout was lower in every Native majority South Dakota county in 2008 than 2004.  Ziebach County saw a decrease of 25% in number of voters.  Shannon County had a decline of 26%.  Thurston County, Nebraska also had a decline in voter turnout.  Indigenous-majority counties in North Dakota were about even between 2004 and '08.

I imagine that most of the indigenous people in that area see no hope in mainstream politics. 

Yeah, Dakota turnouts are abysmal. And vary wildly, and out of sync with white turnout (hence Republican screams of "fraud!1!" when Tim Johnson got saved by high Dakota turnout in 2002.)

[phk]

While checking the voter turnout in North and South Dakota reservation counties, I noticed that voter turnout was lower in every Native majority South Dakota county in 2008 than 2004.  Ziebach County saw a decrease of 25% in number of voters.  Shannon County had a decline of 26%.  Thurston County, Nebraska also had a decline in voter turnout.  Indigenous-majority counties in North Dakota were about even between 2004 and '08.

I imagine that most of the indigenous people in that area see no hope in mainstream politics.  I understand why; as a group they have been so poor for so long under both Democratic and Republican presidents and Congresses.  Hence the Republic of Lakotah.

I think Daschle worked on turning out Natives in 2004 to save him.

[Alcon]

He did.  2004 was the exception, not the rule.

Native voting results are also probably some of the most unpredictable.  Look at the swing/turnout increase in Big Horn County, MT.  On the other hand, there are some states where the Native vote largely swung GOP this year (although that was from like 88-12 to 85-15 or so, granted.)

[minionofmidas]

He did.  2004 was the exception, not the rule.

Native voting results are also probably some of the most unpredictable.  Look at the swing/turnout increase in Big Horn County, MT. 

Here too 2004 might be the exception.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, the real exception is 1984.

5110 votes cast, which remained a record until 2008. And the only Indian county in Montana to vote for Mondale... and it had voted Republican four years previously (and also in 1960, 1968 - by a sizable margin - and 1972.) All the 1960-80 elections have 3200 to 4000 votes cast, with the spike in 1964 once again aligned with a good democratic result. All the 1988-2004 elections have 4000 to 4400 votes cast.

[Alexander Hamilton]

While checking the voter turnout in North and South Dakota reservation counties, I noticed that voter turnout was lower in every Native majority South Dakota county in 2008 than 2004.  Ziebach County saw a decrease of 25% in number of voters.  Shannon County had a decline of 26%.  Thurston County, Nebraska also had a decline in voter turnout.  Indigenous-majority counties in North Dakota were about even between 2004 and '08.

I imagine that most of the indigenous people in that area see no hope in mainstream politics.  I understand why; as a group they have been so poor for so long under both Democratic and Republican presidents and Congresses.  Hence the Republic of Lakotah.

I think Daschle worked on turning out Natives in 2004 to save him.

Well, we all know how that turned out.

[Rob]

5110 votes cast, which remained a record until 2008. And the only Indian county in Montana to vote for Mondale... and it had voted Republican four years previously

Carter ran horribly among Indians in 1980. Not sure if that was a turnout problem, or they were just sick of him.

[Alcon]

What was with Big Horn in '04?  Obviously more than a few Crow were voting Republican.

They tend to be traditionalist and lacking in the anti-authority streaks seen in other Native populations...but that doesn't do a very good job to explain it.

[minionofmidas]

I think the language is still fairly viable, too.

[minionofmidas]

Doing some looking around the internet - really looking for a precinct map for Big Horn County - and Crows have some of the coolest names around.

From a single website, informing about the 2008 Crow Fair...

Albert Gros Ventre, Dale Old Horn, Robert "Corky" Old Horn, Jason Good Striker, Jay Old Coyote (my personal favorite), Edmund Old Crow, Tye Backbone, Jess Real Bird, Ryan Bad Bear, Burdick "Son Son" Two Leggins, Kylie Medicine Horse (she's the reigning Miss Crow Nation), Myrann Crooked Arm, Rama Real Bird, Harmonee Bad Bear, Monica Turns Plenty, Tasha Plain Bull, Lucy Yellow Mule

and a possible reason Obama did so well:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh, and:

"When he visited the reservation last month, Sen. Barack Obama was adopted into the tribe, given a Crow name and ended a speech he gave on Indian policy by saying he wouldn't forget his "own brothers and own sisters."

When Crows went to the polls last week, they voted for Obama in numbers that suggest many tribal members really do consider him one of their own.

Obama, now the presumptive Democratic nominee, took 90 percent of the vote among the reservation's Democrats. Hillary Clinton won nine percent of the vote.

(...) Cindy Maxwell, clerk and recorder, said more people voted in Tuesday's election than in any other primary in Big Horn County history, a trend that emerged nationwide throughout the historic primary season. More than 3,000 voters in the county went to the polls, setting the voter turnout rate at 47 percent. "

And there was a crazy suit by local whites in 2006 that wanted the Crows banned from manning their own polling stations because of some minor irregularities and because the Crow Nation had endorsed, and campaigned for, the (victorious) near all-Crow slate for county offices over an all-White one. Maybe that politicized some people?

[Alcon]

Yes, the Crows tend to be social conformists as well as traditionalists.  Maybe there was some localized issue that pried them away from their general mode of going pretty strongly Democratic.  I've been unable to find a thing.

[minionofmidas]

I'll have to do without clear information on what's where here...

These are percentages for the Democratic candidate by Big Horn County precinct, 2000, 2004 and 2008.
Sorted by Obama performance.

10 04 05 10
3E --- 14 19
06 15 19 19
03 10 15 21
04 30 18 31
4E --- 31 33

18 37 32 46
01 36 33 46
02 43 31 49
19 39 37 49
17 30 34 52
08 36 44 58

25 57 59 69
14 66 62 74
26 66 61 78
15 75 65 79
05 68 68 80
21 73 62 82
09 83 66 88
07 84 78 90

Precincts 3E and 4E apparently created from 3 and 4 as a consequence of 2002 redistricting.

These naturally fall into three groups - indicated above.

Summing the groups, the heavily Democratic precincts gave Gore 75%, Kerry 68% and Obama 83% of the vote, casting 2313, 2350, and 3068 votes. (This does prove that the swing is not entirely due to new voters - McCain got fewer votes than Bush, even than Bush did in 2000.)

The middle group gave Gore 36%, Kerry 35% and Obama 49% (and a narrow plurality), casting 1480, 1550 and 1753 votes. Again, the Republican vote did actually decline, though the bulk of the swing comes from new voters (assuming they broke heavily Democratic).

The heavily Republican precincts at the top gave Gore 19%, Kerry 18% and Obama 22% of the vote. They are however mostly very small, and cast just 460, 473 and 485 votes.

On to an explanation of the county's geography (source: Census 2000).
Of the 12,700 county residents, 6600 reside on the Crow Reservation. Of these, 76% are American Indian or Alaska Native only (referred to from here on as Native) and 21% are White only, not Hispanic (white). A further portion of the reservation is outside the county, but is thinly inhabited.
1500 people live in the portion of the Northern Cheyenne Reservation included in the county - 91% Native, 7% White.
4400 people live north of the reservation - 65% white, 26% native.
Just 145 people live southeast of the reservations - 92% white, 4% native.

Of the three Census Tracts on the Rez, 9405 in the west has 1500 people, 60% natives, 32% whites. 9406 in the northeast has 2800 people, 82% native, 16% white. 9407 in the southeast has 2300 people, 78% native, 20% white. There are three main towns on the reservation, Crow Agency (1600 people, in 9406, and a stunning 96% native), Pryor (600 people, in 9405, 85% native) and Lodge Grass (500 people, in 9407, 87% native.) The rural parts of the reservation are by no means empty - they have 4000 people in them - and are actually about one third white. (There are three more Census Designated Places - Wyola, Fort Smith and Saint Xavier, but they're tiny with less than 200 inhabitants each. Fort Smith is White majority, and Saint Xavier only narrowly Native majority. Wyola is 79% native.)

The bulk of the offrez population - 3400 people - live in the county seat of Hardin, which is located just north of the reservation boundary. Hardin in 60% White and 32% Native. The rural north of the county outside of Hardin is not quite as white and not quite as empty as the rural southeast.

The county is split into two state house districts. The smaller eastern district includes precincts  5, 6, 10, 19, 25, 26 (all years), 3 and 4 (only 2000), 3E, 4E and 14 (only 2004 and 2008). This includes the bulk of the rural white areas, the Northern Cheyenne Rez (I'm guessing that's precincts 25 and 26), Lodge Grass, Wyola, and the rural easternmost part of the reservation ending just outside of Hardin and Crow Agency (and just outside of Lodge Grass, too - just on the other side. Lodge Grass may well be identical to precinct 14.)

So, a tentative identification would be
6 or 10 - rural southeast
3E, 4E, other one - rural north
3, 4 - populated parts just outside of Hardin town limits?
14 - Lodge Grass
25, 26 - Northern Cheyenne
19 - rural east of the rez incl. Wyola

7, 9, 15, 21 - urban and/or heavily Indian parts (I recall one of these as quite large, possibly identical to Crow Agency. Might've been 9. Too lazy to check. Another one of these would be Pryor.)
1, 2, 8, 17, 18 - Hardin town and mixed parts on the west side of the reservation


Doesn't really explain much. Sure, the high swing is partly due to higher minority turnout. But Bush also did win over a (minority) portion of Crow regular voters, all of whom and then some came back to Obama.

[Alcon]

I think I have a file of Big Horn County precinct descriptions from '08 at home...not to ruin your awesome efforts here

[minionofmidas]

Please dig it up and post it.

If I have to guess, I'd say the places where Kerry underperformed Gore are the rural mixed parts and the places where he did about equally are Hardin. But a guess is all that is. And whatever's up with precinct 08. Maybe just changing demographics.

[Rob]

And there was a crazy suit by local whites in 2006 that wanted the Crows banned from manning their own polling stations because of some minor irregularities and because the Crow Nation had endorsed, and campaigned for, the (victorious) near all-Crow slate for county offices over an all-White one. Maybe that politicized some people?

Governor Schweitzer joked about tribal police chasing away Republican pollwatchers in 2006; the right-wing uproar over that remark couldn't have helped either.