United Kingdom Parliamentary by-election in Norwich North
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Parliamentary by-election in Norwich North  (Read 11477 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2009, 04:56:37 AM »
Quote from: Sibboleth on July 24, 2009, 04:48:19 AM
Labour sources say that the Tory vote is up on 2005 but not by much.
No, the Tory share of the vote.

If the Tory vote was up, that would be horrible news...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: July 24, 2009, 04:59:55 AM »
Quote from: Trondheim the Chicken or Lewis the Egg on July 24, 2009, 04:56:37 AM
Quote from: Sibboleth on July 24, 2009, 04:48:19 AM
Labour sources say that the Tory vote is up on 2005 but not by much.
No, the Tory share of the vote.

If the Tory vote was up, that would be horrible news...

Ah, yes. Slight difference there.
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Meeker
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« Reply #27 on: July 24, 2009, 05:47:21 AM »
The Labour candidate has swine flu.

...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #28 on: July 24, 2009, 05:57:03 AM »
Beat me to it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: July 24, 2009, 06:33:57 AM »
Amusing comment from another place:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2009, 06:35:25 AM »
Result soon though. Putting all rumours together and we have a tory majority of between 2000 and 7000 votes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: July 24, 2009, 06:36:43 AM »
Bugger this for a game of soldiers
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afleitch
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« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2009, 06:53:24 AM »
CON MAJ 7348
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Meeker
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« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2009, 06:53:55 AM »
Conservatives: 13,591

Labour: 6,243

Lib Dems: 4,803


Ouch
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2009, 06:55:29 AM »
UKIP about 4000, above Greens.
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afleitch
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« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2009, 06:58:52 AM »
Quote from: Meeker on July 24, 2009, 06:53:55 AM
Conservatives: 13,591

Labour: 6,243

Lib Dems: 4,803


Ouch

Indeed. A far high majority than I think we were predicting. Congratulations to Chloe Smith who becomes the Commons youngest MP.

And fwiw Norwich North is target seat 162 for the Tories. Target seat 163 is Alistair Darlings....
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #36 on: July 24, 2009, 07:02:14 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2009, 07:07:08 AM by Jas »
Norwich North By-Election Result
Chloe SmithConservative 13,59139.5%
Chris OstrowskiLabour 6,24318.2%
April Pond Liberal Democrat 4,80314.0%
Glenn TingleUKIP4,06811.8%
Rupert ReadGreen 3,3509.7%
Craig MurrayPut an Honest Man into Parliament9532.8%
Robert WestBNP9412.7%
Bill HoldenIndependent1660.5%
Alan HopeMonster Raving Loony1440.4%
Anne Fryatt NOTA590.2%
Thomas BurridgeLibertarian360.1%
Peter BaggsIndependent 230.1%
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Meeker
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« Reply #37 on: July 24, 2009, 07:05:58 AM »
Has UKIP historically been a force in these parts?

Also LOL @ the BNP
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afleitch
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« Reply #38 on: July 24, 2009, 07:06:42 AM »
Looks like a 16.5% swing
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #39 on: July 24, 2009, 07:08:12 AM »
Quote from: afleitch on July 24, 2009, 06:58:52 AM

And fwiw Norwich North is target seat 162 for the Tories. Target seat 163 is Alistair Darlings....

Incorrect.

First, Darling is 161. Grin

Second, that's on the new boundaries. The by-election was o/c fought on the old boundaries... which means you can drop about 60 off that figure as the seat retreats back citywards on the new boundaries (Norfolk gains a seat.)
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afleitch
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« Reply #40 on: July 24, 2009, 07:20:23 AM »
Quote from: Lewis Trondheim on July 24, 2009, 07:08:12 AM
Quote from: afleitch on July 24, 2009, 06:58:52 AM

And fwiw Norwich North is target seat 162 for the Tories. Target seat 163 is Alistair Darlings....

Incorrect.

First, Darling is 161. Grin


Even better Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: July 24, 2009, 07:21:46 AM »
Tory vote is only about 2000 less than at the 2005 general. Vote share is up 6 points.

So, yeah. A better result for them than I expected.
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Hash
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« Reply #42 on: July 24, 2009, 07:36:23 AM »
Too bad the UKIP did that well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #43 on: July 24, 2009, 08:34:26 AM »
Looks quite like the county council results in the same area back in June. Which shouldn't be a surprise as the turnout was similar.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #44 on: July 24, 2009, 12:22:12 PM »
Well, it's clear what happened, but less clear is the implications

Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

BBC News Forecast: Con 467 seats Lab 115 seats Lib Dem 41 seats

Same result, but different forecasts. Can anyone explain why?
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AMOLAK MANN
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« Reply #45 on: July 24, 2009, 01:28:55 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on July 24, 2009, 12:22:12 PM
Well, it's clear what happened, but less clear is the implications

Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

BBC News Forecast: Con 467 seats Lab 115 seats Lib Dem 41 seats

Same result, but different forecasts. Can anyone explain why?


Maybe BBC using simple uniform swing (total vote) between the 2 main parties and Sky using the bit more realistic unform change ncorporating the Lib Dem change.a projection that made me want to heave!

the it 
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #46 on: July 24, 2009, 01:42:43 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on July 24, 2009, 12:22:12 PM
Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

They wish.
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afleitch
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« Reply #47 on: July 24, 2009, 02:01:27 PM »

I know I do Cheesy
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #48 on: July 24, 2009, 05:10:17 PM »
I do hope that I live to see the day when they stop trying to work out seat numbers from by-election swings... but I doubt it.
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Verily
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« Reply #49 on: July 24, 2009, 05:29:59 PM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on July 24, 2009, 12:22:12 PM
Well, it's clear what happened, but less clear is the implications

Sky News Forecast: Con 450 seatsLab 98 seats Lib Dem 77 seats

BBC News Forecast: Con 467 seats Lab 115 seats Lib Dem 41 seats

Same result, but different forecasts. Can anyone explain why?

One might be based on notionals and the other on 2005 constituencies. For the locals, Sky was calculating from new notionals while the BBC was calculating the change from 2004.
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