United Kingdom Parliamentary by-election in Norwich North

[Harry Hayfield]

Today, the writ was moved in the Commons and the date set for July 23rd 2009 (the day that Parliament breaks for the summer recess meaning that the winner will have to claim expenses until he/she is formally sworn in as the new member in October).

Norwich North has been in existence in one form or another since 1950 and has been won by Labour from 1950 - 1983, by the Conservatives from 1983 - 1997 and by Labour since 1997. Averaging out all the elections, the long term trend suggests:

Labour (contesting 16 elections) 19,605 votes
Conservatives (contesting 16 election) 14,187 votes
Liberal Democrats (contesting 10 elections) 4,657 votes
Others (contesting 8 elections) 610 votes

Nominations are expected to close at the end of next week and so far the following parties have selected candidates

Craig North (Ind)
Chris Ostrowski (Lab)
April Pond (Lib Dem)
Rupert Read (Green)
Chloe Smith (Con)
Glen Tingle (UKIP)
Robert West (BNP)

[minionofmidas]

Averaging out all the elections, the long term trend suggests

Lol.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm expecting the Conservatives to win.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Craig Murray (former British ambassador to Uzbekistan or wherever) is expected to stand as an independent.

[Verily]

There was a poll out the other day (before Murray entered) with the Conservatives narrowly ahead but basically static against their 2005 numbers. The big shift was about a thirteen-point swing from Labour to the Greens, with the LDs also stable from 2005 and narrowly ahead of the Greens.

The poll was interesting because of what it implied for tactical voting, that is, that the votes to keep the seat Labour are definitely there, but Labour's task is to convince those people not to vote Green. A poll showing the Greens in fourth probably helps that effort a bit. OTOH, Murray entering the race throws a wrench in things; he'll get press attention and may end up with 10-15% of the vote, not enough to win but enough to make it difficult to predict a winner. Especially because it's not clear where he'll draw his votes from.

[mysteryminister]

What will be interesting is, unlike recent UK by-elections it won't be a tale of 2 parties like Glasgow East and Crewe and Nantwich, and the other parties are squeezed. I can's that happening to the Greens in Norwich. But Tory gain, all the same!

[minionofmidas]

There was a poll out the other day (before Murray entered) with the Conservatives narrowly ahead but basically static against their 2005 numbers. The big shift was about a thirteen-point swing from Labour to the Greens, with the LDs also stable from 2005 and narrowly ahead of the Greens.

The poll was interesting because of what it implied for tactical voting, that is, that the votes to keep the seat Labour are definitely there, but Labour's task is to convince those people not to vote Green. A poll showing the Greens in fourth probably helps that effort a bit. OTOH, Murray entering the race throws a wrench in things; he'll get press attention and may end up with 10-15% of the vote, not enough to win but enough to make it difficult to predict a winner. Especially because it's not clear where he'll draw his votes from.

Constituency polling being what it is, I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Serenity Now]

There was a poll out the other day (before Murray entered) with the Conservatives narrowly ahead but basically static against their 2005 numbers. The big shift was about a thirteen-point swing from Labour to the Greens, with the LDs also stable from 2005 and narrowly ahead of the Greens.

The poll was interesting because of what it implied for tactical voting, that is, that the votes to keep the seat Labour are definitely there, but Labour's task is to convince those people not to vote Green. A poll showing the Greens in fourth probably helps that effort a bit. OTOH, Murray entering the race throws a wrench in things; he'll get press attention and may end up with 10-15% of the vote, not enough to win but enough to make it difficult to predict a winner. Especially because it's not clear where he'll draw his votes from.

Constituency polling being what it is, I'm not getting my hopes up.

What are your hopes BTW?

[minionofmidas]

Tories static (or worse) as a percentage of the vote, as in the Euros. Ie, what the poll suggests.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Norwich North has been in existence in one form or another since 1950

Not so. A constituency called Norwich North was created in 1950 and abolished in 1983. It was an entirely urban constituency and a safe Labour seat. It was also rather undersized with an electorate well below 50,000 in 1979.
The current seat is as suburban as it's urban; a majority of the electorate lives outside the boundaries of Norwich proper.

[Harry Hayfield]

Candidates duly nominated

Peter Baggs (Independent)
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian Party)
Anne Fryatt (None of The Above Party)
Bill Holden (Independent)
Laud Howling (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Craig Murray (Put An Honest Man into Parliament)
Chris Ostrowski (Labour)
April Pond (Liberal Democrat)
Rupert Read (Green)
Chloe Smith (Conservative)
Glenn Tingle (UK Independence Party)
Robert West (British National Party)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm surprised the English Democrats didn't try to field a candidate, especially since their HQ is in Norwich.

[Harry Hayfield]

BBC East is reporting that the count will start at 0900 BST on Friday.

[afleitch]

Labour's recent leaflet. You wouldn't think there was a recession would you

[Verily]

Labour's recent leaflet. You wouldn't think there was a recession would you

Actually, I'm not sure it's as bad a strategy as a lot of people see to think. Labour has to target potential defectors to the Greens as much or more than they have to target potential defectors to the Conservatives--and fox hunting is one of the few issues that Labour can genuinely put to potential Green voters and say, "This is how we are different from the Conservatives." (No matter how silly the issue may seem to most.) I would also expect Green voters to be among the most likely to care about the fox hunting ban.

[Serenity Now]

Labour's recent leaflet. You wouldn't think there was a recession would you

The weird thing about the leaflet is that it implies that they themselves will kill that fox if people don't vote for them..

[Harry Hayfield]

A PB.com poll is suggesting a Con majority of between 2,500 to 4,999 (the Lab majority last time was 5,000 on a total vote of 50,000) with the Lib Dems forecast to come second (with Labour slightly behind them)

What will be the majority in Norwich North?
Conservative majority of 2,500 to 4,999: 43%
Conservative majority of 5,000 to 7,499: 27%

Second Placed Party
Liberal Democrats 43%
Labour 41%
Greens 10%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just in case anyone's waiting around here for "something" to happen, the count for this totally pointless by-election isn't until tomorrow. Election is a forgone conclusion in any case; Tory gain, very poor Labour result, etc.

[afleitch]

Just in case anyone's waiting around here for "something" to happen, the count for this totally pointless by-election isn't until tomorrow. Election is a forgone conclusion in any case; Tory gain, very poor Labour result, etc.

It's not pointless It's a dry run of campaign strategies for next year. The Tories have been targeting Norwich North and seats like it for the past three years and it's all a tightly managed affair.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grauniad liveblog: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jul/24/byelections-norwich-north-byelection

So, yeah, parties are spinning the result already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout of 45%. Poor, but not utterly piss-poor.

[Meeker]

What's up with the Greens here? They only got 2.7% in 2005 - what's this about them winning 15% or even the seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's up with the Greens here? They only got 2.7% in 2005 - what's this about them winning 15% or even the seat?

They've done very well in local elections in Norwich recently... though their strongholds are actually all in the (much more urban) Norwich South seat. A majority of the electorate in Norwich North live in a district called "Broadland" and I don't think there's been much Green success there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems the lineup will be: 1. Con 2. Labour 3. LDem 4. Green

Yet a rumour is going round that UKIP may have come third. Probably just one of those rumours, but we'll see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour sources say that the Tory vote is up on 2005 but not by much.