AP Ipsos Says Kerry 50 Bush 46

[Reds4]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=2&u=/ap/20041007/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll


among likely voters.. tied among registered.

[Friar]

Holy smoke...

Is this the 10th pole in the last 3 days or what? I already lost count of all the polls.

I am now waiting for Vorlon to come and say Bush is five up

Clearly the race is anywhere between Bush+1 and Kerry +1. The momentum is with Kerry and a good performance tomorrow will most likely make him the favorite.

[Reds4]

The momentum is with Kerry, my guess is currently Bush leads by a point or so. Bush cannot lose like the first debate or he'll be down 4. A draw or better is needed for Bush.

[The Vorlon]

Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The race was tied 47-47 percent among all voters. Others polls show the race just as tight.

Actually... makes perfect sense.

Most polls have it tied +/- a percent or so, at the RV level... as does this poll.

The AP/Ipsos screen uses a lot of voter energy amd less past voting history than does other screens.

The Dems are all pumped up over Kerry's debate performance, while GOPers are a bit depressed.  More dems are thus "likely" while fewer GOPers are.


WP/ABC says Bush +3 at RV level
Gallup says Bush +2 at the RV level..
Mariest College says Bush +1 at RV level

<<Insert AP Poll Here >>

ARG said Kerry +1 at RV level


Lets toss in a "tie" at the RV level from AP and we finish up the set

With ARG (Kerry +1 at the RV level) to AP to Mariest College to Gallup to WP/ABC I believe I now have a straight...

ICR and PEW show a pair of  Bush +5 at the RV Level.

In this case a straight beats a pair

[The Vorlon]

I am now waiting for Vorlon to come and say Bush is five up

I am sensing a surge by the Libertarians actually....

[afleitch]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

[The Vorlon]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.
Respect for individual liberty
Avoiding unneeded entanglements with other nations
Respect for personal privacy.
A limited role for Government and a focus on local control and accountability.

In the US that is was used to be called a "Republican"..

That party died about 10-15 years ago however, I am sad to say.

We now have two democratic parties.

Both believe in massive taxation, huge government, entanglement with foreigh bowers and a huge intrustion into the lives of the citizens.

They differ marginally on who shall recieve the spoils of government intrusion, and quibble about which details of people lives they are going to intrude into, but the two parties are more alike than different.

[A18]

Prediction: Florida will not be a battleground state in 2008

[Shira]

Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The race was tied 47-47 percent among all voters. Others polls show the race just as tight.

Actually... makes perfect sense.

In your assessment what is the difference in standings compare to 9/27/2004?
My answer (based on feeling) is Kerry +2 and Bush -2.

[ilikeverin]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.
Respect for individual liberty
Avoiding unneeded entanglements with other nations
Respect for personal privacy.
A limited role for Government and a focus on local control and accountability.

In the US that is was used to be called a "Republican"..

That party died about 10-15 years ago however, I am sad to say.

We now have two democratic parties.

Both believe in massive taxation, huge government, entanglement with foreigh bowers and a huge intrustion into the lives of the citizens.

They differ marginally on who shall recieve the spoils of government intrusion, and quibble about which details of people lives they are going to intrude into, but the two parties are more alike than different.

I rather like the Democratic Party which gives my tax dollars to the poor and to public schools

[Shira]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.

In my view college tuition, health care expenses and deductions ( + employer share) and contributions to 401k (+ employer share) are taxes.

If you define taxes this way, we have higher taxes than in Sweden, for example.

[opebo]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.
Respect for individual liberty
Avoiding unneeded entanglements with other nations
Respect for personal privacy.
A limited role for Government and a focus on local control and accountability.

In the US that is was used to be called a "Republican"..

That party died about 10-15 years ago however, I am sad to say.

We now have two democratic parties.

Both believe in massive taxation, huge government, entanglement with foreigh bowers and a huge intrustion into the lives of the citizens.

They differ marginally on who shall recieve the spoils of government intrusion, and quibble about which details of people lives they are going to intrude into, but the two parties are more alike than different.

I agree completely, but on the whole I find the New Republican Party far more intrusive into citizen's lives than the Democrats, entirely due to the Christians.  It is sad to see the party of Barry Goldwater become such a monstrosity.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.
Respect for individual liberty
Avoiding unneeded entanglements with other nations
Respect for personal privacy.
A limited role for Government and a focus on local control and accountability.

In the US that is was used to be called a "Republican"..

That party died about 10-15 years ago however, I am sad to say.

We now have two democratic parties.

Both believe in massive taxation, huge government, entanglement with foreigh bowers and a huge intrustion into the lives of the citizens.

They differ marginally on who shall recieve the spoils of government intrusion, and quibble about which details of people lives they are going to intrude into, but the two parties are more alike than different.

Yes, but the Democrats tend to put that money into better places.  Intrusion into lives of the citizens?  Hey, we may be for people paying their taxes, but civil liberties?  I think the Dems have really moved in the right direction there. 

[The Vorlon]

I rather like the Democratic Party which gives my tax dollars to the poor and to public schools

Giving tax dollars to the bureaucrats and advocacy groups which live off of/administer programs for the poor, as well as unaccountable mega billions to the teacher's unions is not quite the same thing as "the poor and to public schools" actually.

Kinda like "robinhood" - steal from the rich and give to the poor - minus say 85% for shipping and handling

It's actually "trickle down" - throw $Billions at militant unions and hope a few pennies "trickle down" to the poor?

Question:

In DC they spend $13,000 of tax payers money per student in the public "school" system.

Fo this we get a 40% functional illeracy rate among it's "graduates"

If they simply gave every child say a $12,000 voucher to attend the private school of their choice, would not both the taxpayer and the children be better off...?

A yes or no answer is acceptable here

[agcatter]

This answer ought to be entertaining.

[MODU]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.

In my view college tuition, health care expenses and deductions ( + employer share) and contributions to 401k (+ employer share) are taxes.

If you define taxes this way, we have higher taxes than in Sweden, for example.

401(k) is voluntary, so it's not a tax.

[A18]

The GOP is still the same. I honestly believe Bush has embraced big government in order to destroy the Democratic party by forcing them into the kook fringe. So far, it's working.

The Democratic version of "civil liberties" is "I'm going to force this on you." Otherwise they would leave our institutions alone and mind their own business.

[Light Touch]

So is the UK! Libertarians have 'seized' control of the rapidly expanding youth wing of the Conservative Party. No to Europe, no to high taxation, yes to gays. It's fantastic. I may join myself! As for the polls- Bush ahead- but Kerry still has the momentum from last week. Kerry hasn't pulled into any lead- he's simply consolidated his base and seems to have gotten back the 'blue' states- barring Wisconsin and is doing well in Ohio- where he was dead last month.

Wow...

Low taxation.
Respect for individual liberty
Avoiding unneeded entanglements with other nations
Respect for personal privacy.
A limited role for Government and a focus on local control and accountability.

In the US that is was used to be called a "Republican"..

That party died about 10-15 years ago however, I am sad to say.

We now have two democratic parties.

Both believe in massive taxation, huge government, entanglement with foreigh bowers and a huge intrustion into the lives of the citizens.

They differ marginally on who shall recieve the spoils of government intrusion, and quibble about which details of people lives they are going to intrude into, but the two parties are more alike than different.

Bingo.

I thought this subthread was sarcasm at first.