If a ban on gay marriage was on the ballot in all 50 states in 2010

[Old Man Willow]

What would the map look like?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Red = banned
Green = gay marriage allowed
Gray = tossup, very close

[Holmes]

You mean... for the federal constitution, or state constitutions? Cause that would make a difference, actually.

Federal:

The federal amendment has become unpopular. I'm a little more confident in this map.

Statewide:

Compared to my confidence in this one... the greens would be tossups. Most would probably lean for the ban.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Red = Ban
Green = Allow

[Smash255]

Red = banned
Green = gay marriage allowed
Gray = tossup, very close

It would pass in NH, MA, RI, DC, Maine likely wouldn't be a tossup, Maryland would be at least a toss up.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Red = Ban
Green = Allow

That's a little to optimistic for the pro-gay marriage side.  No way in hell Maryland (blacks are almost unanimously against), Iowa, and Wisconsin VOTE for gay marriage.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Red = banned
Green = gay marriage allowed
Gray = tossup, very close

It would pass in NH, MA, RI, DC, Maine likely wouldn't be a tossup, Maryland would be at least a toss up.

I revised it a bit.  DC is 2/3 black... it would NEVER pass in DC. 

[Holmes]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

[Smash255]

Red = banned
Green = gay marriage allowed
Gray = tossup, very close

It would pass in NH, MA, RI, DC, Maine likely wouldn't be a tossup, Maryland would be at least a toss up.

I revised it a bit.  DC is 2/3 black... it would NEVER pass in DC. 

The whole idea that blacks are completely against it is a silly.  Did they vote against it California?  Yes, but that 70% number that came out in the exit poll was pretty much garbage.  D.C is a bit closer to 60% black than 2/3 black, and white voters in D.C are VERY liberal.  Polls in MA & RI show Gay marriage has support by a rather large margin.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

That's not saying much, they voted 70% for a gay marriage ban in California in some of the most liberal areas of the country.  The Upper South isn't exactly socially liberal.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Red = banned
Green = gay marriage allowed
Gray = tossup, very close

It would pass in NH, MA, RI, DC, Maine likely wouldn't be a tossup, Maryland would be at least a toss up.

I revised it a bit.  DC is 2/3 black... it would NEVER pass in DC. 

The whole idea that blacks are completely against it is a silly.  Did they vote against it California?  Yes, but that 70% number that came out in the exit poll was pretty much garbage.  D.C is a bit closer to 60% black than 2/3 black, and white voters in D.C are VERY liberal.  Polls in MA & RI show Gay marriage has support by a rather large margin.

In some parts, they are.  I'll admit I exaggerated a bit, but I'm still standing by my map. 

[Associate Justice PiT]

red = ban
gray = tossup
green = allow

[Smash255]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

That's not saying much, they voted 70% for a gay marriage ban in California in some of the most liberal areas of the country.  The Upper South isn't exactly socially liberal.  

the 70% number was pretty much bogus, and well d.C, Northern Virginia, the Research- triangle area is a no question about it socially liberal areas.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think right now Minnesota would probably pass a ban on gay marriage, if it were on the ballot.  But a majority of Minnesotans don't want it on the ballot, saying it should be determined by the courts according to our current constitution.

It's a weird situation, but that's just how it is.  It's really the typical Minnesota "well, I'm not going to say anything, but if you really push me..."

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

That's not saying much, they voted 70% for a gay marriage ban in California in some of the most liberal areas of the country.  The Upper South isn't exactly socially liberal.  

the 70% number was pretty much bogus, and well d.C, Northern Virginia, the Research- triangle area is a no question about it socially liberal areas.

I was just arguing that Cal has liberal areas with blacks voting decidedly against gay marriage so I could see another liberal area voting against as well, and I think put up to a nationwide vote brings out the religious vote big time. 

I'm for gay marriage, it's not like I want to see this. 

[Holmes]

The 70% is bogus, yeah. I think the number was more around ~59%, and the no on 8 campaign did like no minority outreaching at all. I dunno if they were just banking on the Bay Area vote or what. There weren't even any blacks in their campaign.

[Smash255]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

That's not saying much, they voted 70% for a gay marriage ban in California in some of the most liberal areas of the country.  The Upper South isn't exactly socially liberal.  

the 70% number was pretty much bogus, and well d.C, Northern Virginia, the Research- triangle area is a no question about it socially liberal areas.

I was just arguing that Cal has liberal areas with blacks voting decidedly against gay marriage so I could see another liberal area voting against as well, and I think put up to a nationwide vote brings out the religious vote big time. 

I'm for gay marriage, it's not like I want to see this. 

Perhaps, but again that 70% number was pretty much exagerated.  Also in California where many of the blacks are it is very democratic, but not super liberal (contrast San Francisco and Oakland).  However, in the D.C metro its not only heavily Democratic, but quite liberal as well.  Also keep in mind gay Marriage tends to have more support in middle and upper middle class areas than poorer working class areas, the same pretty much exists within the African American community.  You have a much larger % of the African American population in the D.C metro that are middle to upper-middle class than you have in California.

[Ban my account ffs!]

AHHHH

The 70% number is bogus.  The 70% number is exaggerated.  The 70% number... the 70% number.. the 70% number... the 70% number.. the 70% number.

There, can we be done with the 70% number now?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

You guys really think it would pass in the south?

[Alcon]

You guys really think it would pass in the south?

A ban on gay marriage?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

You guys really think it would pass in the south?

A ban on gay marriage?

Maybe i misunderstood some of the maps but it seemed like they suggested the south would go for it..........LOL

[Alcon]

You guys really think it would pass in the south?

A ban on gay marriage?

Maybe i misunderstood some of the maps but it seemed like they suggested the south would go for it..........LOL

The topic is where a gay marriage ban would pass/fail, not gay marriage itself.  I don't think anyone is suggesting that any Southern states would be on-board with gay marriage.

[pogo stick]

Green= ban
red= pass

[Holmes]

Ooooh yeah, I forgot how South Dakota was ridiculously close in 2006. Like, California close. Anyone know why? There are not signs of them actually supporting same-sex marriage, is it just because they're not fans of amending their constitution?

[tmthforu94]

Green=Ban
Red=Pass
Gray=Undecided

If California voted to ban in 2008, most states would in 2010.