DE: Senate match up: Castle against Biden

[ConservativeforRudy]

Who do you think would win? Longtime moderate republican, Mike Castle, (Former Governor, and current Congressman) or Bea Biden, the AG? I say Castle by at least 3%. But it will be very close.

[pogo stick]

I want Castle to win. But Biden will most likely beat the fmr Governor and current Congressman mainly because of his last name

[Associate Justice PiT]

I want Castle to win. But Biden will most likely beat the fmr Governor and current Congressman mainly because of his last name

     Castle's no nobody in Delaware. Any advantage Biden could get from his name would be nulled by Castle's own high name recognition.

[tmthforu94]

I think Castle will win, though it will be close, as Vice President Biden will do everything in his power to get his son in the Senate. I like Beau a lot, but I don't think he's ready for this high of an office.

[ConservativeforRudy]

I think Castle will win, though it will be close, as Vice President Biden will do everything in his power to get his son in the Senate. I like Beau a lot, but I don't think he's ready for this high of an office.

I agree on everything, but I don't like the Biden's. Not one of them.

[Rob]

*yawn* Biden.

[SamInTheSouth]

I want Castle to win. But Biden will most likely beat the fmr Governor and current Congressman mainly because of his last name

Polling that I've seen shows Castle beating Biden.  I think you way overestimate the affect of Biden's name.

[pogo stick]

Hope i'm overestimating Biden. Cuz Castle is a awesome republican and is very moderate which is perfect for Delaware.Plus Castle is cool

[Rowan]

*yawn* Biden.

Really? Yawn?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_310.pdf

http://www.susquehannapolling.com/DE_poll_5-5-09.pdf

[HAnnA MArin County]

First, has Beau Biden announced that he's running yet? Last I heard, he was still serving in active duty in Iraq. He would be a good candidate but I'm not sure how the nepotism would go over in Delaware, as I'm not too familiar with the state's politics, but the name DuPont rings a bell.

Mike Castle, who IS running now by the way, is definitely the best candidate the Republicans could have gotten and I do think this is their best chance for a pickup, but I won't underestimate the naturally blue leanings of the state's politics, so I'd still label the seat as Toss-up. It's far too early to speculate and it just depends on how much attention it gets, Joe Biden's role in possibility getting his son elected, how strong the anti-Republican sentiment is, etc.

But if I absolutely had to choose, right now, I'd give the edge to Castle. He's won statewide elections by relatively large margins in a blue state, and he's a moderate so that will work well with Delaware's electorate. Good job, Republicans, on your top-tier recruit.

[Lunar]

Castle isn't necessarily runnig, but if he is, Biden isn't necesarily either.  Let's not put the cart ahead of the horse just because some random operatives at the RNC are "leaking" this.  Castle is either running for the Senate or retiring so they have all the incentives in the world to push this story.

[Sensei]

Isn't Castle in poor health?

[Lunar]

Isn't Castle in poor health?

Yes, that's why he'd only serve 4 years and retire at the nice age of 75 to conclude a pleasant political career and have a lot of good friends among his former Republican colleagues for taking a critical seat in what looks to be a bad year otherwise.

What surprises me about him potentially running is that Mike Castle has been friends with the Biden family for quite some time - both he and Joe are obviously political dinosaurs in a small state for four-ish decades.  Something tells me that Castle would be less inclined to run against Beau if he knew for sure that Beau would run -- I'm not suer if Castle really wants to engage in a $20 million or whatever dollar tossup race at this point in his career.  There's a good chance Beau will just run four years later when Castle retires should Castle decide to run -- remember that whoever wins in 2010 will only be serving out the last two thirds of Joe Biden's term.

Or this all could just be posturing to give the RNSC fundraisers some effective talking points.

[Rowan]

Some Delaware paper is reporting that if Castle gets in, Biden will most likely not, in order to avoid a career damaging defeat.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20090621/OPINION05/906210305/1004/OPINION/Republicans+are+trying+to+shoot+their+own+feet

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some Delaware paper is reporting that if Castle gets in, Biden will most likely not, in order to avoid a career damaging defeat.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20090621/OPINION05/906210305/1004/OPINION/Republicans+are+trying+to+shoot+their+own+feet

Ron Williams is a notoriously unreliable source in Delaware. Castle may end up running (although I still highly doubt it), and Biden may not run, but I wouldn't trust anything he says until it's confirmed by better sources.

[justfollowingtheelections]

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/48839502.html

It sounds like Castle would rather retire and move to Florida but he's facing a lot of pressure from DC Republicans to run for Biden's seat.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

1. Castle's big problem is party affilation in growing blue Delaware
2. Castle is able to hold his House seat just because he's been there for many years. If he run now for first term in any statewide office, he'd de probably defeated
3. He'd be really, really old for a freshman Senator. I think he may even retire now
4. Joe Biden is uncrowned king in Delaware politics. With his support Beau won't have much problems
 

[Lunar]

Of course I 500% disagre that Beau won't have any problems against Castle.  One thing to note is Castle's vote on cap-n-trade could be indicative of still serious consideration of a statewide run.

[Stranger in a strange land]

1. Castle's big problem is party affilation in growing blue Delaware
2. Castle is able to hold his House seat just because he's been there for many years. If he run now for first term in any statewide office, he'd de probably defeated

Castle's house seat IS a statewide office

3. He'd be really, really old for a freshman Senator. I think he may even retire now

This is probably what would prevent Castle from running, as he probably won't have enough time to accumulate seniority, and may prefer a quiet retirement. Still, he could very well run and win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of course I 500% disagre that Beau won't have any problems against Castle.  One thing to note is Castle's vote on cap-n-trade could be indicative of still serious consideration of a statewide run.

Yeah, the right wing is furious about that vote, so he could very well have two bloody contests to get through, not one. I could easily see the CFG getting into the primary and supporting Christine O'Donnell.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Yes, I know House at-large seat is a statewide elected office

But when Castle was elected for first time? 1992 as I recall. This was different times and Delaware still wasn't as Democratic as is now. Castle was able to keep his seat because he's a longtime and popular figure, former Governor and Lt. Governor.

This mean, al least in my opinion, that he could hold his house seat, but he's too old (and Delaware really changed) to move forward.