North Korea and Russia

[JSojourner]

I understand why Russia is considered a major playor in the dispute with North Korea.  They are neighbors.

Can someone tell me where Russia comes down in this whole mess?  From what I have read, even the Chinese are reaching the limit of exasperation with North Korea.  Are the Russians more or less apt to support North Korea than the Chinese?  I realize there is a Communist bond between the Chinese and North Koreans that no longer exists with Russia. 

On the other hand, Russia enjoys tweaking the west when practicable.

Thoughts?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

My opinion?....NKorea is China's proxy, has been, will be

[John Dibble]

Russia is probably most interested in the Korean peninsula being stable and relatively peaceful more than anything else. A neighbor at war brings all sorts of troubles with it, such as additional refugees trying to get through the border and whatnot. To that end, they like to be involved in any negotiations with the west, China, and NK, which also has the added benefit of bettering relations with those countries.

China has greater influence on NK though, and wants peace for not only the reasons above but because NK serves as a buffer against the much more democratic South Korea. They don't want their people getting "ideas" from a neighboring country. They don't have complete control of course, but their influence is significant. Since Kim has been rather rowdy lately, they are of course upset, but they are more than likely willing to wait for him to pass away (shouldn't take too much longer) and use their influence to ensure his successor is someone who's easier for them to maintain control over. Russia would probably benefit from this as well.

[jokerman]

My opinion?....NKorea is China's proxy, has been, will be

No, that's not correct.  The rift between the two began evolving even as far back as Mao.

[2952-0-0]

China has greater influence on NK though, and wants peace for not only the reasons above but because NK serves as a buffer against the much more democratic South Korea. They don't want their people getting "ideas" from a neighboring country.

Uh, what? Those people are already filled with the "ideas" you refer to. It's just that the government will not allow them to be expressed. Today's China is still a vile dictatorship, but it certainly is not an Orwellian totalitarian nightmare either.

[GMantis]

Russia has generally been supportive of North Korea, but the recent tests have them worried. After all, their main Pacific city is very close to the North Korean border.
So they have changed their attitude and are more critical than usually.

[John Dibble]

China has greater influence on NK though, and wants peace for not only the reasons above but because NK serves as a buffer against the much more democratic South Korea. They don't want their people getting "ideas" from a neighboring country.

Uh, what? Those people are already filled with the "ideas" you refer to. It's just that the government will not allow them to be expressed. Today's China is still a vile dictatorship, but it certainly is not an Orwellian totalitarian nightmare either.

True - the ideas have certainly gotten there, but they still like having the buffer. Having a direct democratic neighbor that is prosperous encourages dissent and escape. Not a good thing for an authoritarian state. And again, yes, that already happens to some extent, but it would probably be greater if SK shared the border with China instead of NK.

[JSojourner]

I was just trying to gauge the volatility of the minefield we are trying to navigate here.  I mean, is it possible to leverage Russia against China if the latter is too pro-Kim?  Or vice versa?  I am not sure South Korea and Japan are "heard" at all in Pyongyang.

[The Ex-Factor]

The general impression I get is that Russia follows China's lead when it comes to North Korea - especially on Security Council Resolutions. North Korea does a lot more trade with China so it's not clear how much leverage Russia has anyhow.

[2952-0-0]

China has greater influence on NK though, and wants peace for not only the reasons above but because NK serves as a buffer against the much more democratic South Korea. They don't want their people getting "ideas" from a neighboring country.

Uh, what? Those people are already filled with the "ideas" you refer to. It's just that the government will not allow them to be expressed. Today's China is still a vile dictatorship, but it certainly is not an Orwellian totalitarian nightmare either.

True - the ideas have certainly gotten there, but they still like having the buffer. Having a direct democratic neighbor that is prosperous encourages dissent and escape. Not a good thing for an authoritarian state. And again, yes, that already happens to some extent, but it would probably be greater if SK shared the border with China instead of NK.

In case you're living under a rock, there already are democratic and prosperous neighbours of the same culture and ethnicity. The Politburo may not know it, but allowing a million Taiwanese to live and work on the mainland (and 200 thousand in Shanghai alone) is going to transmit some values they don't want. Ditto for their efforts to integrate Hong Kong into China proper.

They approach the North Korean issue rationally. It's the only possible way to act when you have a mentally deranged and nuclear armed crackpot next door.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

China already borders democratic countries. Mongolia, India and Nepal, Pakistan and Russia were at some point. Also despite the lack of a physical border they're not exactly completely seperated from Taiwan and Japan.

[Silent Hunter]

Russia- or rather the Soviet Union- created North Korea in the first place. Stalin declared war on Japan on 6 August 1945 and occupied the area above 38 degrees North of Japan-occupied Korea, per an agreement with the US. There were supposed to be all-Korea elections but they never happened.

It was only the USSR's boycott of the Security Council at that point in time (over Taiwan holding the permanent seat instead of Communist China) that allowed a UN force to go in. Soviet pilots flew MiG-15s "undercover" in that war too.