How big?

[Saxwsylvania]

How big will Obama's victory be on November 6, 2012?  Discuss with varying shades of red.

My map:

[Mechaman]

How big will Obama's victory be on November 6, 2012?  Discuss with varying shades of red.

My map:

lol. Sarcasm for the win.
I'll be honest the wankery of some of the Obama lovers in the forum is out of control.

[minionofmidas]

You seriously think they'll bother to check the ballots for any of the 20 or so deviants that might have voted for somebody else? They'll just weigh'em and report the total of votes cast so that districts with less than 98% turnout can be subjected to punitive flooding.

[YRABNNRM]

The white areas don't meet eligibility requirements.

[Mechaman]

Obama finds the cure for cancer, gets super powers, achieves world peace, and successfully repels the Borg invasion that came from the future to wipe out mankind thus leading to a landslide victory for Obama/Biden over the ticket of Jesus H. Christ/Superman.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Obama finds the cure for cancer, gets super powers, achieves world peace, and successfully repels the Borg invasion that came from the future to wipe out mankind thus leading to a landslide victory for Obama/Biden over the ticket of Jesus H. Christ/Superman.

Jesus and Superman aren't natural-born citizens though... which sort of explains Obama's landslide in the Electoral College (pictured above).

[YRABNNRM]

Obama finds the cure for cancer, gets super powers, achieves world peace, and successfully repels the Borg invasion that came from the future to wipe out mankind thus leading to a landslide victory for Obama/Biden over the ticket of Jesus H. Christ/Superman.

Jesus and Superman aren't natural-born citizens though... which sort of explains Obama's landslide in the Electoral College.

OMG BUT NEITHER IS HUSSEIN OBAMA!!!111!!!!!

[Middle-aged Europe]

OMG BUT NEITHER IS HUSSEIN OBAMA!!!111!!!!!

That's right... Hawaii isn't a part of "real America" either.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Huckabee, 2012 -- and Huckabee gets more electoral votes than any imaginable GOP candidate:

Obama 399, Huckabee 139. Demographic trends alone, with solidification of Obama support almost entirely limited to places where he doesn't need it.

[JSojourner]

This is my Obama v. generic Republican map.  At this early juncture, I don't see anything arrogant, unrealistic or hackish about it.  However, if Democratic hubris persists...a much closer win or even a loss are hardly out of the realm of possibility.  And, of course, a lot depends on the man or woman Republicans choose to carry their standard.  A few of the commonly touted folks are almost certain losers.

But Democrats are just plain foolish to underestimate ANY foe.  Particularly someone as well-monied as Willard or as able to turn out the religious right as the Huckster. 

[pogo stick]

Finally a Democrat who admits Obama won't win 40+ states, before 2011.

[The Mikado]

Obama 62.6%
Mousavi 33.7%
Rezaee 1.7%
Karroubi .9%

[pbrower2a]

Finally a Democrat who admits Obama won't win 40+ states, before 2011.

I counted 35 on mine. Who runs will matter. Romney does better with the popular vote, but far worse with the electoral vote.

[Keystone Phil]

gets super powers

Did he lose them at some point?

[Eraserhead]

Not one of Blubber's personal bests.

[Zarn]

Republican hack viewpoint:

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Huckabee, 2012 -- and Huckabee gets more electoral votes than any imaginable GOP candidate:

Obama 399, Huckabee 139. Demographic trends alone, with solidification of Obama support almost entirely limited to places where he doesn't need it.

In Election 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by 7.25 points, nationally. It was a Democratic sh**t of, roughly, 10 points from John Kerry's 3-point loss in 2004. If President Obama is a success, and I believe he will be, I would anticipate a landslide against his Republican challenger (whomever that would be; wouldn't matter!), and there could be another 10-point Democratic shift. With that a number of states falling his way that include a few that were GOP landslides, in Election 2008, for John McCain. It may be tough to imagine, but there's nothing offered as an alternative from the Republican Party that has potential for 2012.

I predict that either Huckabee wins the GOP nomination outright or that he gets it as the result of a backroom deal because he will fare better against Obama than anyone else.  "I can win 50 electoral votes that you can't" is a powerful argument among Party leaders who make such a decision. Those 50 electoral votes are Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and he would have a chance of holding onto Georgia. The GOP will do damage control in 2012 if it has a chance. Much will be at stake, including the viability of the Party. 50 electoral votes are the difference between a Clinton-like landslide and an Eisenhower-like landslide. The demographic warnings suggest that 2012 isn't a replay of 1964 for the Republicans or 1956 for the Democrats; the youth vote could make things very ugly for the GOP. That youth vote will become older over the years, but it will likely have well-defined political habits not only in voting but also in running for political office. By 2012 we should be seeing people born in the early 1980s running for House seats, and by 2015 we should see some of them running for Senate seats.   

If Obama is at all effective as President, then the priorities for the GOP will be to look as good as possible while losing the Presidency and to attempt to stop the bleeding in the House and Senate, with the hope that it can make challenges for gains in 2014 and 2016. 

I think that GOP leadership is still in the "denial" stage:

• 1. The youth will come around to their senses once they have children to raise, mortgages to meet, student loans to be paid off, and jobs to hold onto. They they will become as conservative as we are.
  
  2. Obama will surely fail as President.
  
  3. The 2008 election was a freakish phenomenon.
  
  4. The Religious Right will revive and will again deliver the votes that we need.
  
  5. Hispanic Americans are more conservative than they think.
  
  6. White people are still the majority and will remain so.
  
  7. Suburbia remains a world with the best of urban and rural life for its denizens, it continues to grow, and it will again be concerned more about taxes than about public services.
  
  8. Poor white people will never vote for a black man. 

 

The GOP fails to recognize that it ran the best possible candidate in 2008 -- someone who won't be running. Obama shows no more signs of failure as President than did Dubya at the same time. Most incumbent Presidents get re-elected. The Religious Right is almost exclusively a white phenomenon, and it is probably weaker now than Catholicism (which is decidedly left-wing on economic issues). Hispanics may be conservative on sexuality and law-and-order but on little else... and when they are running for office in large numbers in places like Texas they will do much to set the new agenda. There are places where the GOP can win by exploiting partisan/racial divides, but not enough; Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana won't be enough. Texas will be more like California in its politics in 2020 than like Texas in 2008.

Suburbia, which is growing faster than old urban America as rural America shrinks, has real problems that the GOP failed to addressed. Public services require taxes or else reliance upon profiteering monopolists. Most people prefer the former, because profiteering monopolists do things badly at excessive cost to captive consumers.

The last one has yet to be disproved -- but it wouldn't take much of a split of the poor white vote to flip some southern states to the Democratic Party. Poor white people and poor black people share the same pains from economic distress.

[Vepres]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Huckabee

Though there are many other potential GOP nominees out there, probably some dark horses.