Are we underestimating Huckabee?

[CJK]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

[tmthforu94]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Hopefully not. The Republicans should come to their senses and realize that candidates like Huckabee and Palin have little to no shot at beating Obama.

[ej2mm15]

I agree with this post 100% and add the fact that Huckabee is leading in polls!

[Lief 🗽]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Hopefully not. The Republicans should come to their senses and realize that candidates like Huckabee and Palin have little to no shot at beating Obama.

Nah, Romney polls terribly and people don't like him. At least Huckabee is likable.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Yes but he lost the popular vote to Romney, he lost the delegate fight to Romney, Romney won more caucusus then anyone. THe only ones Huck won were WV, IA, and LA(can't remember if that was a primary or a caucus). Romney won WY, ND, NV, MT, ME, and Alaska(Can't remember if that was a primary or a caucus). He never showed any appeal beyond southerners, he didn't win any Reagan Democrats like his people claimed he would in MI, WI, and OH. He claimed he would win MT and compete out West and instead he got swampled by Romney's western Organization. Every time you got away from largely Evangelical Romney won the groups Somewhat and Very Conservative. So he can't even win Conservatives unless they are Fundie zealots. Without a moderate candidate he isn't going to beat Romney in any Notheastern State and his only hope is for Palin to peel off some western states. With Palin in he risks splitting the Evangelical vote giving Romney a chance in IA he would otherwise not have. So Palin hurts both but it hurts Romney the least.

[pogo stick]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Hopefully not. The Republicans should come to their senses and realize that candidates like Huckabee and Palin have little to no shot at beating Obama.

Palin can beat Obama!!!! .. I hope

[tmthforu94]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Hopefully not. The Republicans should come to their senses and realize that candidates like Huckabee and Palin have little to no shot at beating Obama.

Palin can beat Obama!!!! .. I hope

It would take something very drastic. Like another Great Depression, plus if we are still in Iraq, and unemployment rate is 25%.

[Mint]

I am not a Huckabee supporter, but I notice a lot of people are acting like the GOP primary battle is going to be mainly a Palin vs. Romney affair, and Huck has little chance of winning. But considering the fact that Huck performed very well in 2008 among southerners and evangelicals and won more primary states than Romney did, aren't we kind of underrating his potential? I remember after McCain won South Carolina everyone said Huck was done but he unexpectedly wound up winning a slew of southern states and did well in caucuses.

Hopefully not. The Republicans should come to their senses and realize that candidates like Huckabee and Palin have little to no shot at beating Obama.

Palin can beat Obama!!!! .. I hope

It would take something very drastic. Like another Great Depression, plus if we are still in Iraq, and unemployment rate is 25%.

I don't think it has to get anywhere near that bad (although I expect it will be very close). People have short attention spans and 3-4 years is more than enough time for Palin to fire her handlers and start doing a PR makeover. That said who I'm placing my bets on right now is obvious.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Thompson kept Huckabee from gaining enough traction early to matter.

Absent Thompson, I think Huckabee comes in second instead of fourth in Nevada, wins South Carolina.  Florida becomes a respectable third instead of a distant fourth Rudy.  That'll improve his chances for Mega Tuesday. He replace McCain for second in Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Romney in Illinois, plus he takes Missouri and Oklahoma out of the McCain column and places it in his.  Thus when Romney drops out after Mega Tuesday, Huckabee doesn't look like a sore loser, but a viable contender.

Huckabee would hen have gone on to win Virgina and comes close in Wisconsin.  If he wins Wisconsin, he'll win Texas on ex-Super Tuesday.  McCain will still likely be the eventual nominee, but Huckabee will have done well enough that McCain will be practically compelled to pick Huckabee instead of Palin as his running mate.

So... will Huckabee have a shot at the nomination in 2012?  Yes.  Problem is, the circumstances that lead to huckabee having a reasonable chance at securing the nomination mean that he'll get beaten by Obama.  However, that's likely to be the case whoever gets the GOP nom.  2012 will likely be a positioning election that will help set the course the GOP takes for the next couple of decades.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Absolutely. People do not realize how much traction he can gain early on. He's very likable, and if you didn't know anything about his policies and views, easy to vote for.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Absolutely. People do not realize how much traction he can gain early on. He's very likable, and if you didn't know anything about his policies and views, easy to vote for.

     Indeed. Notice how well he polled in the GOP primaries in 2008 before people realized who he was.

[BM]

Yes, absolutely. Anyone who's seen his show on Fox should know this. Very likable and easy to relate to, which was Mitt Romney's main weakness other than the perceived flip flopping.

[Padfoot]

Absolutely. People do not realize how much traction he can gain early on. He's very likable, and if you didn't know anything about his policies and views, easy to vote for.

     Indeed. Notice how well he polled in the GOP primaries in 2008 before people realized who he was.

I think he'll have lost that "element of surprise" in 2012 though.  Hes an extremely likable candidate and certainly fits right into the social conservative mold but the fiscal conservatives will balk at his record as governor.  He's practically a blue dog.  His performance outside of the South will not be enough to put him over Romney who is going to crush Palin.

[pbrower2a]

Huckabee is a strong regional candidate. But can he win outside the South in the GOP primaries? He has yet to establish that. He lost primaries in Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri -- states that border Arkansas.  If he can't win outside the South in the Primaries, then he will surely lose the nomination.

Can he have an appeal strong enough to cut into the Blue Firewall?  Sure -- if Barack Obama becomes an utter disaster as President with the economic failure of Herbert Hoover, a diplomatic failure like Carter, or perhaps a scandal like that that ended the political career of Spiro T. Agnew (who never became President but might have had it not been for his corruption as Governor of Maryland). He will win the states that voted for Clinton but not Obama.   

[5280]

Yeah, I agree that he seems like a likeable and nice guy.  I'm not sure how he ran as a govenor in Arkansas.  I'm split between Huckabee and Romney, but I lean more towards Romney.

[Mint]

Yeah, I agree that he seems like a likeable and nice guy.  I'm not sure how he ran as a govenor in Arkansas.  I'm split between Huckabee and Romney, but I lean more towards Romney.

Tax hikes, pretty much. He cut some taxes but the amount he raised through 'fees' and things like gas tax increases outweighed those by about $500 million. He can talk about abolishing the IRS all he wants but he has no credibility on fiscal issues whatsoever.

[Mint]

Yeah, I agree that he seems like a likeable and nice guy.  I'm not sure how he ran as a govenor in Arkansas.  I'm split between Huckabee and Romney, but I lean more towards Romney.

Tax hikes, pretty much. He cut some taxes but the amount he raised through 'fees' and things like gas tax increases outweighed those by about $500 million. He can talk about abolishing the IRS all he wants but he has no credibility on fiscal issues whatsoever.

Amen.  And even he's afraid to admit it!

I'd take pretty much anyone in the party over this clown.

[HappyWarrior]

The only Republican contender who I actually like and respect, at least out of the frontrunners.  He at least seems to care about more than his own ambition.

[Mechaman]

If the Republicans become CEREAL about the word of Jesus(ie social conservatism plus a contempt for rich people), then yes Huckabee does have a chance. Otherwise, no chance in hell.

[RI]

Thompson kept Huckabee from gaining enough traction early to matter.

Absent Thompson, I think Huckabee comes in second instead of fourth in Nevada, wins South Carolina.  Florida becomes a respectable third instead of a distant fourth Rudy.  That'll improve his chances for Mega Tuesday. He replace McCain for second in Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Romney in Illinois, plus he takes Missouri and Oklahoma out of the McCain column and places it in his.  Thus when Romney drops out after Mega Tuesday, Huckabee doesn't look like a sore loser, but a viable contender.

Huckabee would hen have gone on to win Virgina and comes close in Wisconsin.  If he wins Wisconsin, he'll win Texas on ex-Super Tuesday.  McCain will still likely be the eventual nominee, but Huckabee will have done well enough that McCain will be practically compelled to pick Huckabee instead of Palin as his running mate.

I made a timeline about this scenario.

[CJK]

Are we underestimating [former Arkansas governor Mike] Huckabee? …No.

Oh, I believe that when you consider what the Republican Party did to themselves during the Bush years … the GOP will end up losing handily in 2012.

Historically, every winning Democrat captured Florida or Georgia. Sometimes both. When it comes to Fla., only two did not carry it: 1960 John F. Kennedy and 1992 Bill Clinton. When they lost the Sunshine State, neighboring Ga. backed them.

At this point, am I predicting Barack Obama will be a two-term president and win Election 2012? …Yes.

Will Fla. back him again in 2012? …Yes.

Will Obama pull evenly, worse, or even better in the Electoral College? …Obama will perform even better. Just recently looking up two-term presidents, and writing off Grover Cleveleand (because his terms were not served consecutively) and Franklin Roosevelt (due to his being a four-term commander in chief), there is only one exception of a two-term president not netting more electoral votes in the Electoral College upon re-election. This is the case with Woodrow Wilson, in 1916, when Charles E. Hughes took Wilson's home state of New Jersy and Wilson lost West Virginia for the first time for a winning Democrat. Wilson nabbed 435 electoral votes in 1912. His re-election was a decline of 158 electoral votes, for a total of 277 to Hughes's 254. All other two-termers improved on their first election's Electoral College votes.

How is this relevant to the topic?

[Stranger in a strange land]

The economically libertarian, pro-business wing of the Republican party will never accept Huckabee, so no.

[marvelrobbins]

Huckabee out of the front runners Is the best.Not a joke and hateful like Palin and Gingrich.
Not a flipflipper like romney.Republicans will like Huchabee better than Romney since he Is
no momon.Obama would be tough for him to attack as tax raser considering his own
record as Arkansas Governor.Huckabee could take back Indiana and NC.And could turn
Iowa Into a battleground,and could ensure Obama doesn't take Georgia.

Obama could still take Missouri and eather Arizona or Montana although with Huchabee he might be able to ofsort the Hispanic turnout for Obama and keep Arizona and also keep
Montana.He might be the only Republican who doesn't do worse than Mccain with the popular vote.

[Rob]

with Huchabee he might be able to ofsort the Hispanic turnout for Obama and keep Arizona

Huck has adopted a hardline anti-illegal stance, and would almost certainly face a dramatic asskicking in metro Phoenix. He's not exactly the best Republican to appeal to the west.

[Old Man Willow]

with Huchabee he might be able to ofsort the Hispanic turnout for Obama and keep Arizona

Huck has adopted a hardline anti-illegal stance, and would almost certainly face a dramatic asskicking in metro Phoenix. He's not exactly the best Republican to appeal to the west.

What do you think his ceiling is in your state? I'd say even if Obama loses +10 Huckabee doesn't get over 45% in either OR or WA.