Dave's Redistricting App

[Verily]

Looking back at it, dropping the Cerritos extension may be possible. There are a lot of moderately Asian (25-40%) precincts around the main bulb in the western San Gabriel Valley, and relatively few of the Cerritos-area precincts are overwhelmingly Asian, just 40-50% (and the precincts connecting them to the rest contain few Asians at all, making it overall maybe 35% Asian in the extension).

I also missed a few of the majority Asian block groups around the eastern extension.

Worth trying, anyway, when I have the time.

[jimrtex]

How high of an Asian percentage can you get in NYC, assuming you can use the East River to connect areas in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens.

[Verily]

How high of an Asian percentage can you get in NYC, assuming you can use the East River to connect areas in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens.

The Asian enclaves in Brooklyn are not large enough to justify extending to them; the cost in non-Asian population is too great. But muon demonstrated earlier that a 50% Asian map was possible by connecting Flushing to Woodside, Elmhurst and Chinatown. I doubt you could do much better, maybe 51-2% by fiddling at the edges. Conveniently, the Asian areas form a fairly continuous line across Queens, although you do have to dart through Sunnyside, Williamsburg and Greenpoint to get into Chinatown.

[muon2]

Looking back at it, dropping the Cerritos extension may be possible. There are a lot of moderately Asian (25-40%) precincts around the main bulb in the western San Gabriel Valley, and relatively few of the Cerritos-area precincts are overwhelmingly Asian, just 40-50% (and the precincts connecting them to the rest contain few Asians at all, making it overall maybe 35% Asian in the extension).

I also missed a few of the majority Asian block groups around the eastern extension.

Worth trying, anyway, when I have the time.

You inspired me to give a fresh look as well. I found that I needed to keep Cerritos in, but I made the link through Fullerton. That also caused me to drop Chinatown, but overall I was able to get 52% Asian. I also improved my Santa Clara Asian district to 52%. I adjusted my other districts to maintain one Black-majority and 18 Hispanic-majority districts. All fall within 100 of the ideal population. Here's the full map, with detail for LA and the Bay areas, and a short description of demographics.







CD01 (royal blue, Redding): 76% white
CD02 (forest green, Chico): 63% white, 23% hispanic
CD03 (purple, Citrus Heights): 62% white
CD04 (red, Roseville) : 80% white
CD05 (yellow, Sacramento) : 41% white, 25% hispanic
CD06 (teal, Santa Rosa) : 71% white
CD07 (grey, Vallejo) : 37% white, 26% hispanic
CD08 (lavender, San Francisco) : 46% white, 29% asian
CD09 (baby blue, Oakland) : 34% white, 21% black, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD10 (magenta, Concord) : 58% white, 21% hispanic
CD11 (lime, Stockton) : 40% white, 37% hispanic
CD12 (periwinkle, San Mateo) : 45% white, 32% asian
CD13 (flesh, Hayward) : 43% white, 25% asian, 23% hispanic
CD14 (olive, Santa Cruz) : 55% white, 26% hispanic
CD15 (orange, San Jose) : 51% white, 25% hispanic
CD16 (kelly green, Milpitas) : 52% asian, 25% white
CD17 (midnight blue, Salinas) : 56% hispanic, 29% white
CD18 (lemon, Modesto-Merced) : 54% hispanic, 34% white
CD19 (moss green, Clovis) : 67% white, 21% hispanic
CD20 (pink, Fresno) : 62% hispanic, 23% white
CD21 (brick red, Visalia) : 59% hispanic, 31% white
CD22 (brown, Bakersfield) : 54% white, 34% hispanic
CD23 (pale blue, Oxnard) : 54% hispanic, 37% white
CD24 (deep purple, Santa Clarita) : 71% white, 20% hispanic
CD25 (mauve, Palmdale) : 53% white, 33% hispanic
CD26 (charcoal, Glendale) : 54% white, 25% hispanic
CD27 (sea green, LA Northridge) : 52% white, 30% hispanic
CD28 (lilac, LA Van Nuys) : 64% hispanic, 24% white
CD29 (pale olive, Alhambra) : 52% Asian, 24% hispanic, 21% white
CD30 (peach, Thousand Oaks) : 72% white
CD31 (pale yellow, LA - El Sereno) : 56% hispanic, 21% white
CD32 (tangerine, El Monte) 67% hispanic
CD33 (blue, LA - Downtown) 70% hispanic
CD34 (green, Montebello) 92% hispanic
CD35 (violet, LA - South LA) 52% black, 41% hispanic
CD36 (orange, Culver City) 52% white, 29% hispanic
CD37 (cornflower, Long Beach) 55% hispanic
CD38 (slate blue, Pomona) 52% hispanic, 31% white
CD39 (beige, Downey) 67% hispanic, 22% white
CD40 (rust, Huntington Beach) 56% white, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD41 (light grey, Redlands) 41% hispanic, 36% white
CD42 (bright green, Orange) 47% white, 33% hispanic
CD43 (hot pink, Rancho Cucamonga) 59% hispanic, 23% white
CD44 (maroon, Riverside) 51% hispanic, 36% white
CD45 (cyan, Indio) 51% hispanic, 40% white
CD46 (orange, Torrance) 46% white, 25% hispanic, 20% asian
CD47 (pale lilac, Santa Ana) 69% hispanic
CD48 (light orange, Irvine) 67% white
CD49 (dusty rose, Oceanside) 58% white, 30% hispanic
CD50 (sky blue, Escondido) 61% white, 22% hispanic
CD51 (brown, Chula Vista) 59% hispanic
CD52 (army green, El Cajon) 65% white, 20% hispanic
CD53 (pale grey, San Diego) 51% white, 31% hispanic

[Bo]

Looking back at it, dropping the Cerritos extension may be possible. There are a lot of moderately Asian (25-40%) precincts around the main bulb in the western San Gabriel Valley, and relatively few of the Cerritos-area precincts are overwhelmingly Asian, just 40-50% (and the precincts connecting them to the rest contain few Asians at all, making it overall maybe 35% Asian in the extension).

I also missed a few of the majority Asian block groups around the eastern extension.

Worth trying, anyway, when I have the time.

You inspired me to give a fresh look as well. I found that I needed to keep Cerritos in, but I made the link through Fullerton. That also caused me to drop Chinatown, but overall I was able to get 52% Asian. I also improved my Santa Clara Asian district to 52%. I adjusted my other districts to maintain one Black-majority and 18 Hispanic-majority districts. All fall within 100 of the ideal population. Here's the full map, with detail for LA and the Bay areas, and a short description of demographics.







CD01 (royal blue, Redding): 76% white
CD02 (forest green, Chico): 63% white, 23% hispanic
CD03 (purple, Citrus Heights): 62% white
CD04 (red, Roseville) : 80% white
CD05 (yellow, Sacramento) : 41% white, 25% hispanic
CD06 (teal, Santa Rosa) : 71% white
CD07 (grey, Vallejo) : 37% white, 26% hispanic
CD08 (lavender, San Francisco) : 46% white, 29% asian
CD09 (baby blue, Oakland) : 34% white, 21% black, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD10 (magenta, Concord) : 58% white, 21% hispanic
CD11 (lime, Stockton) : 40% white, 37% hispanic
CD12 (periwinkle, San Mateo) : 45% white, 32% asian
CD13 (flesh, Hayward) : 43% white, 25% asian, 23% hispanic
CD14 (olive, Santa Cruz) : 55% white, 26% hispanic
CD15 (orange, San Jose) : 51% white, 25% hispanic
CD16 (kelly green, Milpitas) : 52% asian, 25% white
CD17 (midnight blue, Salinas) : 56% hispanic, 29% white
CD18 (lemon, Modesto-Merced) : 54% hispanic, 34% white
CD19 (moss green, Clovis) : 67% white, 21% hispanic
CD20 (pink, Fresno) : 62% hispanic, 23% white
CD21 (brick red, Visalia) : 59% hispanic, 31% white
CD22 (brown, Bakersfield) : 54% white, 34% hispanic
CD23 (pale blue, Oxnard) : 54% hispanic, 37% white
CD24 (deep purple, Santa Clarita) : 71% white, 20% hispanic
CD25 (mauve, Palmdale) : 53% white, 33% hispanic
CD26 (charcoal, Glendale) : 54% white, 25% hispanic
CD27 (sea green, LA Northridge) : 52% white, 30% hispanic
CD28 (lilac, LA Van Nuys) : 64% hispanic, 24% white
CD29 (pale olive, Alhambra) : 52% Asian, 24% hispanic, 21% white
CD30 (peach, Thousand Oaks) : 72% white
CD31 (pale yellow, LA - El Sereno) : 56% hispanic, 21% white
CD32 (tangerine, El Monte) 67% hispanic
CD33 (blue, LA - Downtown) 70% hispanic
CD34 (green, Montebello) 92% hispanic
CD35 (violet, LA - South LA) 52% black, 41% hispanic
CD36 (orange, Culver City) 52% white, 29% hispanic
CD37 (cornflower, Long Beach) 55% hispanic
CD38 (slate blue, Pomona) 52% hispanic, 31% white
CD39 (beige, Downey) 67% hispanic, 22% white
CD40 (rust, Huntington Beach) 56% white, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD41 (light grey, Redlands) 41% hispanic, 36% white
CD42 (bright green, Orange) 47% white, 33% hispanic
CD43 (hot pink, Rancho Cucamonga) 59% hispanic, 23% white
CD44 (maroon, Riverside) 51% hispanic, 36% white
CD45 (cyan, Indio) 51% hispanic, 40% white
CD46 (orange, Torrance) 46% white, 25% hispanic, 20% asian
CD47 (pale lilac, Santa Ana) 69% hispanic
CD48 (light orange, Irvine) 67% white
CD49 (dusty rose, Oceanside) 58% white, 30% hispanic
CD50 (sky blue, Escondido) 61% white, 22% hispanic
CD51 (brown, Chula Vista) 59% hispanic
CD52 (army green, El Cajon) 65% white, 20% hispanic
CD53 (pale grey, San Diego) 51% white, 31% hispanic

Nice job for making 3 Asian-majority districts.

[Verily]

I suspect that Judy Chu will insist on having the above district drawn for her in 2012, so it actually is interesting to construct. (In her current district, she is perpetually in danger of a primary challenge from a Hispanic politician who actually has union connections.)

[muon2]

I suspect that Judy Chu will insist on having the above district drawn for her in 2012, so it actually is interesting to construct. (In her current district, she is perpetually in danger of a primary challenge from a Hispanic politician who actually has union connections.)

Which town is her base?

These Asian-majority districts become interesting as well if CA passes the initiative to include congressional redistricting with their commission. The commission will probably be swayed by linking communities of interest, and I would not be surprised to see a pan-Asian COI promoted.

[Bo]

I was interesting in seeing what was the whitest and least-white congressional district anyone can make in any state?

[muon2]

I was interesting in seeing what was the whitest and least-white congressional district anyone can make in any state?

The inner cities often have large areas with low white percentages. For example the LA area map I posted has three districts that are 5% or less white. The South LA district is only 3% white.

I suspect that CDs over 90% white are possible in states like UT.

edit: I get 93% for a CD in UT using the 2008 numbers.

[Bo]

I was interesting in seeing what was the whitest and least-white congressional district anyone can make in any state?

The inner cities often have large areas with low white percentages. For example the LA area map I posted has three districts that are 5% or less white. The South LA district is only 3% white.

I suspect that CDs over 90% white are possible in states like UT.

edit: I get 93% for a CD in UT using the 2008 numbers.

Could you please post the map? The whitest district I could get in Utah was 89% white. Of course I didn't try too hard. I think it is possible to create a 96% white district in Maine. I wonder if anyone could create a 96% or 97% white district anywhere.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

[Brittain33]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

Maine surpassed Vermont as the least-diverse state this decade, and it should be possible to draw 1 district that excludes Lewiston, Portland, and Native American areas.

Utah is probably not going to work for this purpose because even heavily Mormon areas will have some Latino population.

[Verily]

I suspect that Judy Chu will insist on having the above district drawn for her in 2012, so it actually is interesting to construct. (In her current district, she is perpetually in danger of a primary challenge from a Hispanic politician who actually has union connections.)

Which town is her base?

These Asian-majority districts become interesting as well if CA passes the initiative to include congressional redistricting with their commission. The commission will probably be swayed by linking communities of interest, and I would not be surprised to see a pan-Asian COI promoted.

She's from Monterey Park, which is in the Asian-majority district already. IIRC, Monterey Park is the most Asian municipality in the country outside of Hawaii.

[Bo]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

No, it's 97% (non-Hispanic) white in 2005. It might be down to 96% in 2010, but I'm not sure.

[fezzyfestoon]

I just had a lot of fun squeezing out Republican districts in Maryland.  I made the partisanship average based on the country.

MD-1: D+78% (Prince George centered, 69% black)
MD-2: D+78% (Baltimore centered, 71% black)
MD-3: D+48% (Densely populated areas in Montgomery, Prince George, and Howard Counties)
MD-4: R+7% (Southern Maryland)
MD-5: R+21% (Peninsula)
MD-6: D+2% (Inner Baltimore suburbs)
MD-7: D+1% (DC and Baltimore suburbs)
MD-8: R+17% (Western Maryland)

In a good year, Republicans could hold 5 of the 8 Maryland districts.  That was fun.

[Bo]

I just had a lot of fun squeezing out Republican districts in Maryland.  I made the partisanship average based on the country.

MD-1: D+78% (Prince George centered, 69% black)
MD-2: D+78% (Baltimore centered, 71% black)
MD-3: D+48% (Densely populated areas in Montgomery, Prince George, and Howard Counties)
MD-4: R+7% (Southern Maryland)
MD-5: R+21% (Peninsula)
MD-6: D+2% (Inner Baltimore suburbs)
MD-7: D+1% (DC and Baltimore suburbs)
MD-8: R+17% (Western Maryland)

In a good year, Republicans could hold 5 of the 8 Maryland districts.  That was fun.

Here's a challenge for you--make all congressional dsitricts in Maryland at least 60% Obama.

[muon2]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

Maine surpassed Vermont as the least-diverse state this decade, and it should be possible to draw 1 district that excludes Lewiston, Portland, and Native American areas.

Utah is probably not going to work for this purpose because even heavily Mormon areas will have some Latino population.

The best I had in UT was 93%, but I can get 97% in ME by excluding the coast from Portland to Canada and removing the cities in Androscoggin, Kennebec and Penobscot. Of course the remainder is still 94%.

[Bo]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

Maine surpassed Vermont as the least-diverse state this decade, and it should be possible to draw 1 district that excludes Lewiston, Portland, and Native American areas.

Utah is probably not going to work for this purpose because even heavily Mormon areas will have some Latino population.

The best I had in UT was 93%, but I can get 97% in ME by excluding the coast from Portland to Canada and removing the cities in Androscoggin, Kennebec and Penobscot. Of course the remainder is still 94%.

You mind posting both maps? I want to see what you came up with.

[RI]

Here's a challenge for you--make all congressional dsitricts in Maryland at least 60% Obama.

MD-01 (Blue): 60%D-38%R
MD-02 (Green): 60%D-39%R
MD-03 (Purple): 60%D-39%R
MD-04 (Red): 61%D-37%R
MD-05 (Yellow): 60%D-39%R
MD-06 (Teal): 60%D-38%R
MD-07 (Grey): 61%D-37%R
MD-08 (Light Purple): 78%D-21%R

District 8 could be broken up more if the other districts needed to be strengthened.

[ag]

I was interesting in seeing what was the whitest and least-white congressional district anyone can make in any state?

Based on 35 districts in Texas I easily got a district that's 3% White and 96% Hispanic. I am sure, minor play w/ boundaries would get Hispanics to 97%.

[Bo]

Here's a challenge for you--make all congressional dsitricts in Maryland at least 60% Obama.

MD-01 (Blue): 60%D-38%R
MD-02 (Green): 60%D-39%R
MD-03 (Purple): 60%D-39%R
MD-04 (Red): 61%D-37%R
MD-05 (Yellow): 60%D-39%R
MD-06 (Teal): 60%D-38%R
MD-07 (Grey): 61%D-37%R
MD-08 (Light Purple): 78%D-21%R

District 8 could be broken up more if the other districts needed to be strengthened.

What I meant was have each district be at least 60% Obama and preserve the VRA (as in having 2-black majority districts remain). I knew I should have been more specific. Do you think you can accomplish my new challenge?

[fezzyfestoon]

I really want partisan data for more states.

[jimrtex]

These Asian-majority districts become interesting as well if CA passes the initiative to include congressional redistricting with their commission. The commission will probably be swayed by linking communities of interest, and I would not be surprised to see a pan-Asian COI promoted.

The law requires that the legislature apply the same standards when drawing congressional districts, as the commission does when drawing legislative lines, except the legislature is not restricted from considering the residence of incumbents or political candidates, and may draw districts for the purpose of favoring or discriminating against an incumbent, political candidate, or political party.

A geography-based "community of interest" would seem to be pretty ill-defined, so I would stick to cities and counties since they do have a clear definition, and then consider neighborhoods and maybe CDP (California may has alternatives defined for planning purposes) when the others had to be divided to reach population relative equality.

Incidentally, there are now 12,000+ applicants to the commission with two weeks to go.  About 10,000 appear to qualify based on legal eligibility.

The next step is for the auditors to reduce that to 60 persons (20 Democrats, 20 Republicans, and 20 other) "on the basis of relevant analytical skills, ability to be impartial, and appreciation for California’s diverse demographics and geography." 

The Phase I applicants will now be given a supplemental application which will include

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Based on the supplemental applications, 120 will be brought to Sacramento for personal interviews, from which 60 will be chosen.

It will be interesting to see how many persons follow through with the more extensive application.

I would be concerned that commission would be too narrowly qualified, as opposed to the sort of variety you would get if a more random process, such as that used for jury selection were used.

An interesting demographic about current applicants is that the median age appears to be about 57, which is older than I would expect - but perhaps younger persons were simply more realistic about the potential job interruption if they were selected.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I really want partisan data for more states.

Amen.

[Bo]

I really want partisan data for more states.

Amen.