Inside the 1984 Politburo: Romanov prevails over Chernenko

[big bad fab]

What would have occurred if, in 1984, after Andropov's death, Grigori Romanov, 1st secretary for Leningrad, had won over Chernenko, with e.g. Gromyko supporting Romanov ?

Would have Romanov led a perestroïka of his own ?
Would have he been forced to resign after past scandals emerged ?
Would have Gorbachev emerged later or, even, at all, with a Romanov quite young and not in bad shape ?
Would have USSR's foreign policy been harsher ?
Would have communist countries in central and eastern Europe evolve slower ?

[big bad fab]

Mmmm... Not many kremlinologists on Dave's forum, eh?
Too young !

I think Romanov would have tried to keep on Andropov's policies. An economic reform only, but controlled by the KGB.
He would have been quite hard in foreign affairs and in Eastern Europe "allies", such as Poland.
Young KGB men would have emerged as real masters, and Gorbachev wouldn't have been able to take the lead.
Maybe the USSR would have followed a Putinesque path...

But nationalistic tensions, failure in Afghanistan, inability to intervene in the Third World, faster growth for China, which would have appeared as brighter than a non-Gorbachev USSR, would have led to a massive stalemate and a violent explosion of the USSR itself, in Russia and Ukraine, in the Baltic States and the Caucasus (a sort of Yugoslav situation 1991-95, without any outside intervention), with Central Asian states leaving once Soviet army and police would have been busy in the West and the South.

In the process, Romanov would have been ejected after some years by the KGB and/or the Army and replaced by a sort of siloviki junta, the US being so glad to have a so-called stable governement to control nuclear arms that they wouldn't have supported democratic and nationalist movements.

[big bad fab]

I've once read that Andropov already prefered Gorbachev as his successor, just as Brezhnev prefered Chernenko to succeed him.

Otherwise, I've been interested in Soviet history, but particularry Stalin era

Romanov may have won in 1984 if some old non-Brezhnevians, like Gromyko, Solomentsev, Shcherbitsky, gathered with young Andropovians like Gorbachev, Vorotnikov and Chebrikov (KGB) and with the Brezhnevian (but more Ustinovian...) Ustinov.
But they all picked the harmless Chernenko, with the "youngs" konwing he would die soon.
Romnaov was a Leningradian, which was, at the time, not a good thing...

I'm not sure Andropov had a clear choice. That was more Kulakov who gave a boost to Gorbachev's career. Andropov was kind to Gorby, but he hadn't chosen any successor.

Gorbachev won in 1985 because Gromyko didn't support the Brezhnevian candidate, Grishin (1st secretary in Moscow), who was only supported by Tikhonov (PM). Romanov was already out because of corruption and weird personality.

A fascinating time between Suslov's death and Kirilenko's demise in 1982 up to 1989...