From the scenario, Baker was an extremely popular President, and ran a very successful administration. The Republicans enter the campaign enthusiastically behind incumbent Vice President Laxalt.
The Democrats, on the other hand, had a very divisive primary campaign, which would likely have left wounds in the party.
Clinton, although a gifted politician and campaigner, was not quite ready for a Preisdential run in 1988.
Vice President Laxalt wins the election, as Vice President Bush did in real life in 1988, following 8 years of a very popular President. Laxalt wins with a much smaller margin than Bush did, however, he does win.
Enthusiastic campaigning by popular former Governor Reagan helps deliver California to Laxalt.
More importantly, solid campaigning and endorsement from successfull and popular President Baker helps Laxalt seal the election.
Both VP nominees, Kemp and Bradley, campaign well, and are good picks.
Laxalt/Kemp 278
Clinton/Bradley 260
Laxalt may not win reelection in 1992, but he does win in 1988.