Have your Predictions Lauged at in JUST THREE YEARS! 2012 Predictions

[Mechaman]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

[ChrisJG777]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

[Mechaman]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

I disagree. Yes, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri (though McCain did win Missouri, which makes me think it's stronger R than the previous two) are vulnerable. But, Illinois, Delaware (if Castle runs), Colorado (untested incumbent), New York (simply because an untested incumbent vs. one of two strong GOP contenders, King or Pataki), Nevada (because Reid is weak), and Connecticut (because Dodd is really weak) are all possible pickups for the GOP, surely you don't think won't win any of these? I think Colorado and Connecticut are particularly vulnerable.

(Sorry for the long list, but it illustrates my point)

New York is a royally blue state where any Republican needs a large number of crossover Democrats to win.  Delaware and Illinois will only be competitive if Republicans can get Kirk and Castle to run.

[pbrower2a]

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Thune:

(Different color scheme -- but justified):

deep red        Obama/Biden    win 10% or more
medium red    Obama/Biden    win 5%-9.9%
pink                Obama/Biden    win under 5%
pale blue        Romney/Thune  win under 5%
medium blue  Romney/Thune  win 5-9.9%
deep blue      Romney/Thune   win over 10%

Popular vote: 52-47.

Romney fares consistently better than McCain did in the North and West (except Arizona) -- but only enough better to pick up Indiana and NE-02. Obama fares far better in the South than he did in 2008, picking up a bunch of states that he lost badly in 2008 due to economic performance. Romney fares about the same as McCain did in popular votes but much worse in electoral votes. 

[pbrower2a]

Obama/Biden vs. Huckabee/???:

(Same scheme as in the Obama/Romney projection):

deep red        Obama/Biden    win 10% or more
medium red    Obama/Biden    win 5%-9.9%
pink                Obama/Biden    win under 5%
pale blue        Huckabee/???  win under 5%
medium blue  Huckabee/???  win 5-9.9%
deep blue      Huckabee/???   win over 10%

Popular vote: 52-47.

With the same level of popular vote, Huckabee does better than Romney in picking up electoral votes because he can reach southern Whites -- only to be clobbered even harder Up North and in the West, which won't matter much. Political culture matters greatly for a challenger -- and the pale blue color for Utah shows that he had better make up with the LDS if he wants to avoid bad news from Utah. Obama picks up MT, ND, MO, AZ, WV, and NE-01; the Dakotas are the two closest states .

     

[Vepres]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

I disagree. Yes, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri (though McCain did win Missouri, which makes me think it's stronger R than the previous two) are vulnerable. But, Illinois, Delaware (if Castle runs), Colorado (untested incumbent), New York (simply because an untested incumbent vs. one of two strong GOP contenders, King or Pataki), Nevada (because Reid is weak), and Connecticut (because Dodd is really weak) are all possible pickups for the GOP, surely you don't think won't win any of these? I think Colorado and Connecticut are particularly vulnerable.

(Sorry for the long list, but it illustrates my point)

New York is a royally blue state where any Republican needs a large number of crossover Democrats to win.  Delaware and Illinois will only be competitive if Republicans can get Kirk and Castle to run.

Wasn't King, a GOP representative from NYC, considered competitive due to his strengths and the Democrats' relative weakness in the state?

[DemocratsVictory2008]

[DemocratsVictory2008]

Obama is reasonably popular in 2012 and wins nationally 57-42%, however only Arizona, Montana, Missouri and the Dakotas flip blue. Georgia comes close but the GOP wins by 1 point there and Texas by 3. Obama wins Arizona by 7-9 with McCain not on the ballot and gets to 60% in Nevada.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Obama is reasonably popular in 2012 and wins nationally 57-42%, however only Arizona, Montana, Missouri and the Dakotas flip blue. Georgia comes close but the GOP wins by 1 point there and Texas by 3. Obama wins Arizona by 7-9 with McCain not on the ballot and gets to 60% in Nevada.

OK, you're new, so it's OK, but you really should use the edit function instead of double-posting.

Just so this post is not a waste of time:

Obama's first term in office is quite good; the economy has not fully recovered yet, but it's getting  there. The War in Iraq is over and the War in Afghanistan is winding down after the capture of Osama bin Laden in Apr. 2012. Civil unions are now legal nationwide. Obama has named three SC nominees.

2010 elections: Dems gain two seats net, but lose one after Joe Lieberman defects to the Republican caucus. In 2009, Christie wins NJ governorship, while Creigh Deeds wins VA. In 2010, Dems pick up governorship in AL, AZ, CA, GA, HI, MN, NV, and SD, while Reps pick up IL, KS, MI, NY, OK, TN, and WY. NY happens because Cuomo doesn't run, and Paterson is crushed by Giuliani. IL is Kirk vs. Madigan; Kirk wins 48.97-48.73.

Back to the map: GA is resolved only three days before the Electoral College meets to cast their ballots. It is 49.31% Obama/Biden-48.96% Palin-Sanford

Also, some other stuff happens, I guess.

[pogo stick]

Obama VS Generic Republican

If Obama's ratings are over 50%.


Now for a bad Obama term :

[ChrisJG777]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

[pogo stick]

sorry. Lawl. I'll use those colors on my next predictions.

[You kip if you want to...]

Add Minnesota and that's probably right.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

I disagree. Yes, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri (though McCain did win Missouri, which makes me think it's stronger R than the previous two) are vulnerable. But, Illinois, Delaware (if Castle runs), Colorado (untested incumbent), New York (simply because an untested incumbent vs. one of two strong GOP contenders, King or Pataki), Nevada (because Reid is weak), and Connecticut (because Dodd is really weak) are all possible pickups for the GOP, surely you don't think won't win any of these? I think Colorado and Connecticut are particularly vulnerable.

(Sorry for the long list, but it illustrates my point)

New York is a royally blue state where any Republican needs a large number of crossover Democrats to win.  Delaware and Illinois will only be competitive if Republicans can get Kirk and Castle to run.

Wasn't King, a GOP representative from NYC, considered competitive due to his strengths and the Democrats' relative weakness in the state?

King never represented NYC.  He holds the most Republican district on Long Island. 

[Vepres]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

I disagree. Yes, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri (though McCain did win Missouri, which makes me think it's stronger R than the previous two) are vulnerable. But, Illinois, Delaware (if Castle runs), Colorado (untested incumbent), New York (simply because an untested incumbent vs. one of two strong GOP contenders, King or Pataki), Nevada (because Reid is weak), and Connecticut (because Dodd is really weak) are all possible pickups for the GOP, surely you don't think won't win any of these? I think Colorado and Connecticut are particularly vulnerable.

(Sorry for the long list, but it illustrates my point)

New York is a royally blue state where any Republican needs a large number of crossover Democrats to win.  Delaware and Illinois will only be competitive if Republicans can get Kirk and Castle to run.

Wasn't King, a GOP representative from NYC, considered competitive due to his strengths and the Democrats' relative weakness in the state?

King never represented NYC.  He holds the most Republican district on Long Island. 

My bad. Still, I heard he is a strong potential challenger.

[Holmes]

Obama does better in South Dakota than Montana.

[pbrower2a]

Obama VS Generic Republican

If Obama's ratings are over 50%.

No way does Obama lose Minnesota if he wins Iowa by a huge margin. Minnesota is about D+7; Iowa is about D+3.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Same warning, but add Wisconsin.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama VS Generic Republican

If Obama's ratings are over 50%.


Now for a bad Obama term :

Are you high? How does MN lean away from Obama if his approvals are over 50%?

[pogo stick]

Argh. Sorry that one was a mistake it should've been Solid Obama

[Mechaman]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

[ChrisJG777]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

When you say "it's true", you're kind of implying you can predict the future.  The reality is that there is a reasonable chance that your prediction there won't happen at all, like all the others. 

[Mechaman]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

When you say "it's true", you're kind of implying you can predict the future.  The reality is that there is a reasonable chance that your prediction there won't happen at all, like all the others. 

You're just a mindless political hack!

[ChrisJG777]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

When you say "it's true", you're kind of implying you can predict the future.  The reality is that there is a reasonable chance that your prediction there won't happen at all, like all the others. 

You're just a mindless political hack!

If you say so.   

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama/Biden v. Palin/Daniels: