Have your Predictions Lauged at in JUST THREE YEARS! 2012 Predictions

[aaaa2222]

Being bored, I have decided that now is the time to begin making predictions for the next presidential election. State the two candidates you think will run, and preferably make a map and little scenario describing it. Of course, these will be ridiculously far off the mark, but it will be interesting to examine how the opinions and thoughts of people changed over time.
Obama/ Biden vs. Romney/ Gingrich

A slim Obama win, after redistricting. Romeny runs a strong campaign, beating Obama in both debates, but the charisma of Obama and the incumbent advantage carry the democrat to a second term in office. Strongly liberal and restrictive new legislation is passed to fix up the housing crisis as well as the impending credit collapse, the economy is still faring poorly, and growth, although present, is slower than normal.

[You kip if you want to...]

Obama, remaining fairly popular (approvals at 55%), keeps his lead more or less throughout the campaign. After beating out Mike Huckabee, Governor Mitt Romney picks <insert southerner's name here> as his running mate.

A slim wins, in 2008, for Obama in Indiana turns into a slim lose. In exchange, the President picks up Georgia and South Carolina aswell as Montana, both the Dakotas and Arizona. The senate stands at 61-39 to the Democrats.


Another possibility is Governor Sarah Palin wins with primaries, leading to this map.

[pbrower2a]

 
Obama/ Biden vs. Huckabee/ Gingrich

Obama wins about 56% of the vote with a 62% approval rating.

Huckabee does better than any other imaginable GOP nominee and holds onto the Inner South because of his cultural ties to an area of comparative homogeneity. Romney won't run with him, and he picks Gingrich to offset his "hick" image by adding a right-wing intellectual to his ticket.  He picks up nothing that McCain didn't win in 2008. He still loses neighboring Missouri... and Obama picks up West Virginia because his infrastructure projects are good for coal (big input into steel production).  Arizona? No surprise as Huckabee has no ties. Texas is really close due to demographic change. Obama picks up Montana and the Dakotas.

Huckabee of course does badly in the northern US  -- and Utah shows the folly of offending the LDS church through Huckabee's offensive statements that appear heavily on Utah television -- and Gingrich's family life. In an election in which Utah doesn't matter much, the Mormons teach Americans a lesson  -- don't offend Mormon sensibilities and expect to win the state even if you are a conservative Republican.   

[Devilman88]

Ok, I'll do this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) vs Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R)

President Obama's approval ratings are in the mid fourties, the economy is unchanged, to a little worse. The Republican Party has rebuilt on the back of grassroots started by the "Tea Parties". In 2010 Republicans net gained two Senate Seats and 5 Governor's seat.

Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R) 270/ 49%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) 268/ 48%

[JerryBrown2010]

Ok, I'll do this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) vs Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R)

President Obama's approval ratings are in the mid fourties, the economy is unchanged, to a little worse. The Republican Party has rebuilt on the back of grassroots started by the "Tea Parties". In 2010 Republicans net gained two Senate Seats and 5 Governor's seat.

Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R) 270/ 49%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) 268/ 48%

Real EV Collage Map Proposal

Sarah Palin Would Not Win No matter what

[Devilman88]

Ok, I'll do this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) vs Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R)

President Obama's approval ratings are in the mid fourties, the economy is unchanged, to a little worse. The Republican Party has rebuilt on the back of grassroots started by the "Tea Parties". In 2010 Republicans net gained two Senate Seats and 5 Governor's seat.

Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R) 270/ 49%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) 268/ 48%

Real EV Collage Map Proposal

Sarah Palin Would Not Win No matter what

Well, alot of people are moving out of CA to AZ and NV. Also alot of people are moving out of NY.

[pbrower2a]

Sarah Palin wins in 2012? Not with the pathological family, and not with the same level of rhetorical inanity.

If Californians are moving to Arizona, then that would make Arizona much more likely to vote for Obama.

[Devilman88]

Sarah Palin wins in 2012? Not with the pathological family, and not with the same level of rhetorical inanity.

If Californians are moving to Arizona, then that would make Arizona much more likely to vote for Obama.

That is why it is 40% Republican.

[Vepres]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

[Sewer]

Obama/Biden Vs. Huckabee/Pence

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Jindal

Obama/ Biden vs. Gingrich/Romney

Obama/Biden Vs. Jindal/Pence

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Obama vs. Palin:

vs. Huckabee:

vs. Jindal:

[pbrower2a]

Ok, I'll do this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) vs Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R)

President Obama's approval ratings are in the mid fourties, the economy is unchanged, to a little worse. The Republican Party has rebuilt on the back of grassroots started by the "Tea Parties". In 2010 Republicans net gained two Senate Seats and 5 Governor's seat.

Even if the economy stabilizes at a lower level than it was in November 2008, such will be a boon to Obama. That implies that the Dubya-era meltdown is over and people are making genuine progress. People will by then recognize that the illusion of prosperity under Dubya was exactly that, and they will still hate him and distrust the GOP so long as it fails to distance itself from him.

"Tea parties"? FoX Propaganda Channel played them up, overstating their significance and the size of participation. Those will get smaller and less relevant every time.

[tmthforu94]

Just doing one map, on what I think will happen.
Obama had a very mediocore first term. His choice of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court turns out to be a disaster, as a shocking video of her is uncovered where she talks about her hatrid of whites and men. Unemployment rates continued to rise. The ended up around 9% on Election Day 2012. While the Iraq war has ended, America has entered war with both North Korea and Iran. The economy has slightly improved, but not as much as Obama promised.

There was a bloodbath in the Republican primary. It became a four-way race between Romney, Palin, Pawlenty, and Gingrich. In the end, Romney wins and selects Senator Charlie Crist as his running mate. On election day, Obama's approval rating is 41%...

Romney/Crist vs. Obama/Biden

[Vepres]

His choice of Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court turns out to be a disaster, as a shocking video of her is uncovered where she talks about her hatrid of whites and men.

While this is possible, this is way too optimistic on your part. She will most likely be confirmed. Also, wars with North Korea and Iran? This seems highly unlikely as well. These guys have been "threats" for years, but have done nothing more than weapons tests. Still, I believe the map you made could happen, even under a more realistic scenario.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

[Vepres]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

[Devilman88]

Ok, I'll do this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) vs Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R)

President Obama's approval ratings are in the mid fourties, the economy is unchanged, to a little worse. The Republican Party has rebuilt on the back of grassroots started by the "Tea Parties". In 2010 Republicans net gained two Senate Seats and 5 Governor's seat.


<snip>

Sarah Palin/Mike Pence(R) 270/ 49%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) 268/ 48%

Real EV Collage Map Proposal<snip>

Sarah Palin Would Not Win No matter what

Well, alot of people are moving out of CA to AZ and NV. Also alot of people are moving out of NY.

Still, Texas at 39 EV's?

Texas is set to gain 4 EV taking them up to 38, so gaining another EV isn't out of the question due to people relocating.

[pbrower2a]

Some GOP Senate seats are extremely vulnerable in 2010 -- open seats in Ohio, Florida, and  New Hampshire, and seats held by Bunning (KY), Vitter (LA), Burr (NC) and Thune (SD). Bunning isn't up to the job anymore, Vitter has a sex scandal, and Burr and Thune have shaky seats in a year in which the GOP is still in trouble.  The Democrats in obvious trouble are Burris (IL -- tied to a disgraced ex-Governor) and Bennet (CO). Another imaginable GOP pickup in the Senate is WV -- should Robert Byrd die before November 2010.

One worth noting: should Sarah Palin try to win a Senate seat from an incumbent Republican Senator -- consider the folly -- then Ms. Murkowski might pull an Arlen Specter on the GOP. 

[Devilman88]

Some GOP Senate seats are extremely vulnerable in 2010 -- open seats in Ohio, Florida, and  New Hampshire, and seats held by Bunning (KY), Vitter (LA), Burr (NC) and Thune (SD). Bunning isn't up to the job anymore, Vitter has a sex scandal, and Burr and Thune have shaky seats in a year in which the GOP is still in trouble.  The Democrats in obvious trouble are Burris (IL -- tied to a disgraced ex-Governor) and Bennet (CO). Another imaginable GOP pickup in the Senate is WV -- should Robert Byrd die before November 2010.

There is still over a year left until the 2010 election, that is like 10 years in politics. If you remember up until the end of September the 2008 Presidential election was very close and just over night Obama's numbers jumped up and stayed that way. So anything can happen. And to think that they will just make you plain stupid.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

[pbrower2a]

Some GOP Senate seats are extremely vulnerable in 2010 -- open seats in Ohio, Florida, and  New Hampshire, and seats held by Bunning (KY), Vitter (LA), Burr (NC) and Thune (SD). Bunning isn't up to the job anymore, Vitter has a sex scandal, and Burr and Thune have shaky seats in a year in which the GOP is still in trouble.  The Democrats in obvious trouble are Burris (IL -- tied to a disgraced ex-Governor) and Bennet (CO). Another imaginable GOP pickup in the Senate is WV -- should Robert Byrd die before November 2010.

There is still over a year left until the 2010 election, that is like 10 years in politics. If you remember up until the end of September the 2008 Presidential election was very close and just over night Obama's numbers jumped up and stayed that way. So anything can happen. And to think that they will just make you plain stupid.

Wow! Ill need to talk about several years, so be patient.

Some things are just more possible than others. The GOP made gains in the Senate in 2004 that will be vulnerable in 2010. Several states are likely to be less R in 2010 than they were in 2004 -- and that suggests vulnerability for some incumbents and difficulties for some Republicans running for open seats. America has changed significantly in its politics since 2004. This time as many Democratic seats up for re-election as Republican seats -- largely because Obama, Biden, and Clinton are no longer Senators. Two of those abandoned seats look safe under almost any circumstances. The third depends upon when and if Roland Burris does the honorable thing. That's nothing that I would bet on if I were a gambler.

2012? Obama will have to fail badly as President. That will take a Hoover-like economic meltdown or some diplomatic or military catastrophe. Such is possible, but no more likely for him than anyone else. So far he seems a very slick, flexible, and cautious politician -- which implies that he won't likely commit to a catastrophe on what he alone thinks some high principle. Random chance (Democrats will finally have more Senate seats to defend than will Republicans) alone suggests that the Republicans will have a good opportunity to pick up some Senate seats through random chance alone in 2012. Obama could then win a landslide victory while the Republicans finally pick up a Senate seat or two.

To be sure, standards of success may be higher in 2012 than in 2004, the last time that an incumbent President ran for re-election. That Dubya got away with a superficially-mediocre Presidency that had huge hidden damage undermining American prosperity due to economic folly in 2004 hardly suggests that Obama can get away with what Dubya did. Times are now more obviously dangerous than they were in 2004. It's just as well that the political standards will be higher in 2012 than in they were 2004. But that applies just as well to the Republicans as to the Democrats.  That is a wash.

So how does Obama have a successful Presidency?

1.  Do nothing stupid in foreign affairs. There will be enough dangers. 

2.  Don't promote any new speculative boom. It just won't work this time.

3.  Establish some appropriate reforms.

4.  Don't add new taxes or increase old ones unless they come with compensating services.

5.  Don't cheat on Michelle, especially with a white woman.
 

[aaaa2222]

Honestly, I think that the 2010 Senate races will go strongly Democrat, and Obama will have even more of a force behind him to push his agenda, making change happen yet faster. Unless there is a complete collapse of yet another market, Obama will thus be able to speed up economic growth once again, and will thus win a landslide victory.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Sarah Palin wins in 2012? Not with the pathological family, and not with the same level of rhetorical inanity.

If Californians are moving to Arizona, then that would make Arizona much more likely to vote for Obama.

Except if they are fleeing conservatives, which they have tended to be in the past.

[Vepres]

Obama/Biden Vs. Romney/Thune

Obama's approvals remain in the mid-forties throughout the campaign. The economy had improved in 2010, only to drop down again in late 2011. Romney runs on his economic credentials and returns to his more socially moderate roots. Polls show the election tied until the second (town hall) and third (domestic) debates, where polls show that a significant portion of the public viewed Romney as the victor. Thune performs well in the debate and defeats Biden, but this has little effect on the campaign.

Ultimately, Obama does well in the south due to Romney's Mormonism, while Romney performs well in the mountain west because of his quasi-libertarian campaign, and does well in the upper mid west because of his ties to the region and the economic problems.

After the 2012 elections, Republicans gain/maintain a majority in the house, and come just a few seats shy of a senatorial majority with 48 seats to the Democrats 50 seats + 2 independents.

Uh, I dont see Republicans picking up eight Senate seats in 2012. 

1. This assumes they hold all their seats in 2010 and possibly gain a few.
2. My scenario assumes there is a second, though not as severe, recession as sort of a relapse of the first, never good for the incumbent party.
3. Republicans have structural advantages because Democrats have far more seats to defend that year (these were people from the 2006 elections, a heavily Democratic year).
4. Because of the recession, Obama doesn't turn out the youth like he did in 2008, and they vote in much the same way as other groups because they become disenchanted with Democrats. They would only be +2-5 Democrat instead of +10 or more Dem like this year.

Republicans cannot possibly hold every won of their seats in 2010.  New Hampshire, Missouri, and Ohio are probably leaning Dem now and Republicans are going to need a lot of luck to find many seats to offset those.  The best case scenario for Republicans in the Senate in 2010 is breaking even.  In 2012, Republicans would probably be favored to pick up Nebraska and North Dakota without incumbents running and would have at least an even chance in Florida and West Virginia in an open seat scenario and could be able to beat Webb, Tester and McCaskill in a 1980 style Carter-like trainwreck where Obama only gets around 100 EV's.  That would get them to 47 seats in a picture perfect scenario. 

I disagree. Yes, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri (though McCain did win Missouri, which makes me think it's stronger R than the previous two) are vulnerable. But, Illinois, Delaware (if Castle runs), Colorado (untested incumbent), New York (simply because an untested incumbent vs. one of two strong GOP contenders, King or Pataki), Nevada (because Reid is weak), and Connecticut (because Dodd is really weak) are all possible pickups for the GOP, surely you don't think won't win any of these? I think Colorado and Connecticut are particularly vulnerable.

(Sorry for the long list, but it illustrates my point)

[pbrower2a]

Sarah Palin wins in 2012? Not with the pathological family, and not with the same level of rhetorical inanity.

If Californians are moving to Arizona, then that would make Arizona much more likely to vote for Obama.

Except if they are fleeing conservatives, which they have tended to be in the past.

Such explained Colorado during the last twenty years -- until the kids became liberals and large numbers of Hispanics moved in. Politically, Arizona is most similar to Nevada and Colorado.  More significant is that young Hispanics started voting.

John McCain won Arizona by less than the usual margin (10-15% that one usually expects for a Favorite Son), and even in a 50-50 split of the vote, Arizona would be a swing state in 2012. If you wish to see what the effect of a Favorite Son is, then look at South Dakota in 1972 (McGovern still lost) to North Dakota and Nebraska.