2016 Republican primary timeline

[impactreps]

Super Tuesday III Results

Alabama Primary

John Thune – 60.32%

Susan Collins – 39.68%

Arkansas Primary

John Thune – 56.27%

Susan Collins – 43.73%

Colorado Caucuses

John Thune – 64.87%

Susan Collins – 35.13%

District of Columbia Primary

Susan Collins – 79.41%

John Thune – 20.59%

Kansas Caucuses

John Thune – 62.66%

Susan Collins – 37.34%

Kentucky Primary

John Thune – 58.30%

Susan Collins – 41.70%

Louisiana Primary

John Thune – 54.07%

Susan Collins – 45.93%

Maryland Primary

Susan Collins – 55.68%

John Thune – 44.32%

Minnesota Caucuses

John Thune – 53.14%

Susan Collins – 46.86%

Mississippi Primary

John Thune – 62.94%

Susan Collins – 37.06%

Missouri Primary

Susan Collins – 51.32%

John Thune – 48.68%

Oklahoma Primary

John Thune – 66.74%

Susan Collins – 33.26%

Oregon Primary

Susan Collins – 56.24%

John Thune – 43.76%

Texas Primary

John Thune – 53.13%

Susan Collins – 46.87%

Utah Primary

John Thune – 75.46%

Susan Collins – 24.54%

Washington Primary

John Thune – 55.63%

Susan Collins – 44.37%

Wisconsin Primary

Susan Collins – 54.72%

John Thune – 45.28%

The results are clearly a victory for Thune, who sweeps the South, the Midwest, and Rocky Mountain states. “Tonight,” Thune states in his victory speech to thunderous applause, “is not a victory for me. Tonight is not a victory for this campaign. Tonight is your victory.” Thune’s remarks are enormously well-received by his reporters, who chant “We love John! We love John!”

Collins, meanwhile, is slightly less upbeat about her performance in the results. She had been hoping to win states such as Washington and Texas, the latter of which had a large Latino population that was supposed to go strongly for Collins (she carried Texan Latinos 57%-43%). In addition, her weak performance in the South is likely to raise questions among party leaders about her ability to carry the region in November if she is nominated, which is highlighted by the fact that she would be running against a moderate Southerner. Publicly, though, she continues to be optimistic. “We may be down,” she tells her supporters, “but we are definitely not out!”

Following Super Tuesday III, pundits disagree on whether the primaries are a “game-changer” for Thune or if his victories are solely due to the demographics of the states being in his favor. What is universally agreed upon, however, is that Thune will undoubtedly be able to hold the crucial conservative base should he be nominated. Collins’ inability to close the gap with Thune among conservatives is something that she will have to address in the days and weeks ahead, the most crucial time period in the entire primary season.

Delegates

John Thune – 770
Susan Collins – 736

[SaintStan86]

Any word on these factors?

FLORIDA
Charlie Crist (he may not have made an endorsement, but that could change considering 2008...)

GEORGIA
Newt Gingrich (if he still matters...)

ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune (and Sun-Times, too) -- both possibly in digital form considering the current state of that industry

MICHIGAN
Reagan Democrats (and Obamacans) in the Detroit suburbs

NEW YORK
9/11 (it may have been 15 years but who knows...) and the third parties (Independence, Conservative, etc.)

OHIO
The 3 C's (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus)

PENNSYLVANIA
The Philadelphia suburbs

NATIONAL/OTHER
Convention site sweepstakes, SNL parodies, talk radio/cable news reaction, etc.

[Barnes]

Thank God! A GOP Moderate! I'd never vote for Susan Collins against any Democrat, but I would have more respect for her ideas!

[pogo stick]

Go Thune!!!!!!!!

[GLPman]

Thune needs to seal the deal here. Now's the time to beat Collins.

[tmthforu94]

Please update soon! This is very good.

[impactreps]

Sorry for not updating. I just got back from vacation. I will update again within the next couple of days. Glad to see you're following it!

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Good timeline, even though I disagree with some of the results.

Go Thune, by the way.

[tmthforu94]

Will this ever be updated? It was getting very interesting.

[zclark1994]

Update PLEASE.

[impactreps]

Sorry for taking so long to respond and not giving you too much, but I have to set the stage for what's coming next...
Following Thune’s primary sweep on Super Tuesday III, the Senate Minority Leader acts as if he already has the nomination all locked up. His campaign unveils two new television ads scheduled to be aired in the swing states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The ads make no mention of Collins, instead attacking President Obama’s “dangerous fiscal irresponsibility” and branding Warner as “Obama 2.0.” In addition, the Thune campaign announces a host of new endorsements, including that of New York Congressman Peter King. The Collins campaign releases a video on YouTube of King’s criticisms of Michael Jackson following the singer’s death in June 2009, and the video receives more than 2 million hits in one week. Still, what could’ve been a wider controversy is mainly relegated to the blogosphere.

Collins is more worried about Thune’s attacks of Obama and Warner. While this is nothing new on the part of the Thune campaign, both Collins and most political pundits see this as an attempt by Thune to simultaneously portray Collins as the leader of the pro-Obama Republican moderates and give the impression that he is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. Indeed, while the delegate race between Thune and Collins is still very close and could go either way, polls show Collins’ support in a free-fall.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Thune – 49%
Collins – 43%
Undecided – 8%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 47%
Thune – 45%
Undecided – 8%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Collins – 47%
Warner – 46%
Undecided – 7%

This, coupled with the commencement of a $1 million campaign sponsored by the Club for Growth attacking her economic record, compels Collins to launch a new strategy before Super Tuesday IV. After consulting with her advisers, who are split between avoiding confrontation with Thune and directly meeting him head-on, Collins chooses the latter, and prepares for the next phase in Campaign 2016. World events beyond her control, however, rock the state of the presidential race.

[impactreps]

Early on the morning of April 2nd, seismologists report a large blast with the epicenter in northern Iran. Later that day, the Iranian government releases a video of an apparent nuclear blast, along with the statement, “Today the Islamic Republic of Iran celebrated the culmination of our scientists’ nuclear research by successfully testing a medium-range nuclear missile. This test was for research purposes only, and the information collected from our study will be solely devoted to providing civilian nuclear power for our country.”

This news sends shockwaves throughout the world, with many governments quickly condemning Iran for the blast and its violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which it is a party to. President Obama issued a vacillating statement, saying “The White House is deeply troubled by recent events taking place in Iran. We strongly urge Iran to turn over all remaining nuclear weapons, if present, to international authorities for immediate dismantling.”

While liberals and most moderate commentators praise Obama for his calm handling of the crisis, conservatives erupt in criticism of the President for being indecisive. “What is he thinking!?!” exclaims Sean Hannity on his radio show the day following the incident. “Iran detonates a nuclear weapon right in front of the planet and our President, who is tasked with protecting the American people, does nothing more than issue a statement? That is just as troubling, if not more, as Iran’s stunt in the first place!”

Vice President Warner echoes in support of the President’s reaction, but sensing the country’s growing opposition to the President’s stance, states, “We must be careful to handle this situation with the utmost sensitivity, and I sincerely hope we make the right judgment, even if it may be taking a more aggressive stance toward Iran for their actions.” Warner’s sense of the country’s mood turns out to be somewhat accurate, as the first poll results come in on the President’s handling of the crisis.

Gallup Poll: Do you think President Obama is correctly handling the recent event of Iran detonating a nuclear weapon?

Yes – 34%
No – 54%
Unsure – 12%

Gallup Poll: Do you think Iran’s recent detonation of a nuclear weapon makes the world a safer place, a more dangerous place, or has no effect on international relations?

Safer – 3%
More dangerous – 88%
No effect – 9%

Senator Collins quickly but rationally condemns the President’s actions, stating, “It is clear Iran has misled the United States and the international community into thinking it had no nuclear weapons program. From Sunday’s events, it is obvious Iran is bent on developing a nuclear weapons stockpile to threaten its neighbors and enemies across the globe. I believe the President has to take immediate action to make sure this situation does not spiral out of control.”

Collins receives high marks across the political spectrum for her reaction, while Thune is wavering on the issue and his continuing criticisms of Collins are overshadowed by this event. Collins uses the momentum from the media praise to form a new strategy, and beings to roll out ads in the swing states of Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, questioning Thune’s experience and judgment. In one television ad, the announcer intones, “In today’s threatening world, America needs a commander-in-chief who will do what’s necessary to protect our citizens from harm. Senator Susan Collins has the experience and judgment to lead our nation in these menacing times.”

Thune angrily reacts to Collins’ ads, condemning her negative campaigning, even though none of her ads mention Thune by name. In a speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Thune goes further, saying “What we need now is not merely a war of words. We need to go further to ensure that Iran is no longer a threat to peace in the Middle East or around the world.” After the speech, the Senator’s lapel microphone picks up Thune casually remarking to a supporter in the crowd, “If it were up to me we would’ve taken care of Iran a long time ago.”

Within hours Thune’s “Iran comment” is all over cable and network news, with pundits questioning whether Thune was referring to war with Iran. The next day Collins says in a response to a question at a town hall meeting in Boca Raton, Florida, “I don’t know about you but I find it dangerous that a candidate in contention for Commander-in-Chief of our nation’s military is so eager to use force against a nation to get what he wants. I thought we had past that stage in our nation’s history, but according to John Thune we haven’t.”

Thune issues a statement clarifying his remarks, saying “I was in no way referring to going to war to stop Iran’s nuclear program. I was simply suggesting that if we had had a more competent administration in power the last 8 years that had focused more aggressively on diplomacy, maybe we could’ve convinced Iran to disarm.” The statement does nothing to placate moderates alarmed by the “Iran comment,” while conservative feel betrayed that Thune is not pressing for a more aggressive strategy in dealing with the crisis. Thune’s dilemma is evident by the fact that his poll numbers are now once again on the decline.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Collins – 47%
Thune – 46%
Undecided – 7%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 49%
Thune – 42%
Undecided – 9%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Collins – 49%
Warner – 44%
Undecided – 7%

Thune attempts to recover from his “Iran comment” and regain the offensive, but with only two days to go before Super Tuesday IV it seems nearly impossible. The only thing both candidates can do is work their hardest to make sure the final primaries put them over the top…

(Results in next posting)

[jimsnaza]

Like both candidates, but...
Go Collins!

Also, do you really think that for the Iowa caucus, there will only be 2 candidates? I just don't see that happening.

Susan Collins can't put two words together without sounding choppy. She has no chance at ever running for president. Watch her delivery in this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fuwd7HdViZI&feature=channel

[impactreps]

Anybody have any comments before I post the final primary results? I know it's been a long time since I've posted...

[tmthforu94]

No, except that this is a great timeline and I can't wait for the results!

[impactreps]

Super Tuesday IV Results

Florida Primary

Susan Collins – 56.47%

John Thune – 43.53%

Georgia Primary

John Thune – 60.13%

Susan Collins – 39.87%

Illinois Primary

Susan Collins – 58.34%

John Thune – 41.66%

Michigan Primary

Susan Collins – 57.55%

John Thune – 42.45%

New York Primary

Susan Collins – 65.41%

John Thune – 34.59%

Ohio Primary

John Thune – 53.63%

Susan Collins – 46.37%

Pennsylvania Primary

John Thune – 51.17%

Susan Collins – 48.83%

“Can you believe it?” asked MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews incredulously at the adjournment of that network’s election night coverage. “We’re going to the convention!” he exclaims. Indeed, most of the media delegate counts show that Collins has surpassed Thune in the delegate count for the second time, but both candidates are roughly 200 delegates short of clinching the nomination.

The Collins crowd is ecstatic as their candidate takes the stage at their victory party in Buffalo, New York. “All throughout this election the pundits have written us off,” Collins begins. “They said that a candidate like me could never even come close the winning the Republican nomination. They said there was no room for change within the Republican Party. Well, tonight, we’ve made room! And four months from now, in Cincinnati, at our party’s convention, a new face will be representing the Grand Old Party.” The atmosphere at the Collins party is clearly celebratory, as the crowd chants “Go Susan Go! Go Susan Go!”

At the Thune election night gathering in Atlanta, a somewhat dreary mood is in the air. Before Thune speaks, commentators report of private sources from within the campaign revealing that the Thune campaign had expected to wrap up the nomination before this night and that they had not planned for a convention fight. When Senator Thune finally takes the stage, his remarks are nowhere near as rallying as Collins’, but he still manages to project an aura of confidence. “Tonight the primaries have come to an end,” Thune says. “You have had your say, and you have come out in record numbers to choose our party’s standard bearer. It is obvious we have a tough road ahead, but I assure you that when our party meets in Cincinnati, I will stand before you as the presidential nominee of the Republican Party of the United States!”

Delegate count (1,285 needed to win)

Susan Collins – 1,068
John Thune – 1,046
Charlie Crist – 5 (withdrawn)
Unpledged – 449

Popular vote

Susan Collins – 20,075,817 (50.51%)
John Thune – 19,495,522 (49.05%)
Charlie Crist – 95,391 (0.24%)
Mike Pence – 51,670 (0.13%)
Gary Johnson – 27,823 (0.07%)