2016 Republican primary timeline

[impactreps]

President Obama's two terms are widely hailed as successful. The economy is on a slow, but steady, path toward recovery, troops are out of Iraq, and the President has reached agreements with North Korea and Iran, thus making a notable shift toward stability in the Middle East and Asia. As of December 2015 he holds a 60% approval rating.

With Vice President Joe Biden having stepped down prior to the 2012 election for health reasons, incumbent v.p. Mark Warner runs for the Democratic nomination and wins handily over token opposition.

The Republicans also appear as if they will have a rather easy time choosing their nominee. While several names are considered, the frontrunner becomes Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate Minority Leader. He leads the national polls and most state polls over his only major challenger, Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who quickly positions herself as the leader of GOP moderates and liberals, a rapidly growing base in the once exclusively conservative GOP. Other candidates include Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, and Senator Charlie Crist of Florida.

Nevertheless, the primary season begins just as everyone expected, with a strong Thune win in Iowa.

Iowa Caucuses

John Thune - 51.27%

Susan Collins - 21.88%

Charlie Crist - 13.90%

Mike Pence - 7.83%

Gary Johnson - 5.12%

The results are damaging for Pence and Johnson, the latter of whom drops out immediately. The Crist campaign is also disappointed, as many of their own tracking polls had them in a tight race for second place with Collins. As a result, Crist travels back to Florida to talk with advisers about continuing the race.

Thune celebrates his blowout victory with a memorable victory speech in Des Moines, declaring "It's time for America to be great again!" Collins gives a combative concession speech, stating "Tonight may have been tough, but so will New Hampshire...for John Thune!" Collin's words offer hope to her supporters, but New Hampshire polls consistently indicate a sizable Thune victory.

NH Tracking Poll

Thune - 44%
Collins - 30%
Crist - 10%
Pence - 4%
Undecided - 12%

Collins' chances are resting on winning the undecideds, and she makes an aggressive push in New Hampshire following Iowa, emphasizing her New England roots, her fiscal conservatism, and proclaiming Thune to be un-electable against Vice President Warner. Thune, meanwhile, believing he has New Hampshire all wrapped up, takes a safer approach, giving only a handful of speeches and relying mainly on a massive TV and mail advertising campaign. As primary day draws near, polls continue to indicate a Thune win. When all the votes are counted, however, a surprise is in store.

New Hampshire Primary

Susan Collins - 47.33%

John Thune - 40.51%

Charlie Crist - 8.55%

Mike Pence - 3.61%

Collins' seven-point win in the Granite State revives her campaign, and it suddenly looks as if there will be an all-out battle between Thune and Collins for the nomination.

[tmthforu94]

Like both candidates, but...
Go Collins!

Also, do you really think that for the Iowa caucus, there will only be 2 candidates? I just don't see that happening.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Go Thune!

[impactreps]

Like both candidates, but...
Go Collins!

Also, do you really think that for the Iowa caucus, there will only be 2 candidates? I just don't see that happening.

I figured that Thune's position as Senate Minority Leader would be enough to ward off any significant congressional opposition to him in the presidential race. Also, most conservatives would be behind Thune from the start, thus making it hard for a conservative challenger to be successful, which is why Collins' challenge comes from the left, if you will.

[GLPman]

I love the TL so far, but I agree with Bayh '10....there should be more candidates in the Iowa Caucus, especially if the Republicans are trying to take the WH back after 8 years of Democrat rule.

[impactreps]

Collins’ campaign celebrates their New Hampshire win hard, and pundits begin to describe her victory as the ascendancy of the moderate-liberal wing of the Republican Party. The campaign is especially comforted by the fact that late deciders broke nine-to-one for Collins, and independents went for Collins 68%-32% (independents in Iowa split 50-50). In addition, Collins is moving up in national polls.

Pence, after banking on using strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire to continue campaigning on a national level, decides to withdraw on the night of the primary, telling his supporters, "We gave it a good fight. And now I ask you to fight as hard for John Thune as you did for me." Crist also suspends his campaign, but decides against making an endorsement.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Thune – 51%
Collins – 42%
Undecided – 7%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 51%
Thune – 39%
Undecided – 10%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 48%
Collins – 44%
Undecided – 8%

Thune’s campaign, by comparison, is in disarray. They expected a solid victory in New Hampshire, and now their strategy is being questioned by conservatives after losing the state to a “RINO.” As a result, Thune begins to depend heavily on the next state, South Carolina. Thune had a wide lead in the state after Iowa, and most leaders of the Religious Right are solidly behind his candidacy, with Jerry Falwell, Jr., calling Collins’ pro-choice stance “dangerous.” Despite Collins’ post-NH surge in much of the country, South Carolina remains relatively stable.

SC Tracking Poll

Thune – 55%
Collins – 35%
Undecided – 10%

Collins, however, reminding voters of the similar situation post-Iowa, makes a two-week long trek across South Carolina, courting the state’s independent voters. She also makes an effort toward Crist voters, since Crist polled a respectable 11% in SC before his withdrawal. She emphasizes her personal opposition to abortion, and pleas that “we can all just get along.” She is widely ridiculed for that statement, and Thune replies “there is no compromising on the issue of life.” As a result, her surge stalls and Thune maneuvers to win the state decisively.

South Carolina Primary

John Thune – 55.24%

Susan Collins – 44.76%

Collins is dismayed that independents broke narrowly for Thune 52%-48%, and evangelicals turned out heavily for Thune 83%-17%. Thune declares his campaign’s viability following an embarrassing loss in New Hampshire, and both candidates turn to Nevada, where Thune expects an easy win.

NV Tracking Poll

Thune – 54%
Collins – 38%
Undecided – 8%

With Senator John Ensign’s backing, Thune maintains his lead and calls on caucus-goers to turn out to support “the conservative cause.” Collins replies angrily that “conservatism is not about a person, it’s about an ideal,” and that “Reagan would be appalled that one man has turned his noble ideals into a plea for personal gain.” Still, with conservatives solidly behind him, pundits predict that a loss in Nevada would spell the end of Collins’ campaign. Both sides prepare for the fallout when a shocker ensues.

Nevada Caucuses

Susan Collins – 53.19%

John Thune – 46.81%

Everyone is surprised by Collins’ victory. Entrance polls reveal that it is due to Collins heavily winning independents 67%-33% and crossover Democrats 88%-12%. In addition, she carries Latino voters 59%-41% and union voters (who crossed over to vote GOP since there was no significant Democratic contest) 62%-38%.

Once again, complacency on the part of Thune’s supporters has allowed a stunning Collins upset, and the race is thrown into chaos with Super Tuesday I fast approaching.

Delegates

John Thune – 49
Susan Collins – 39
Uncommitted – 8

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I figured that Thune's position as Senate Minority Leader would be enough to ward off any significant congressional opposition to him in the presidential race. Also, most conservatives would be behind Thune from the start, thus making it hard for a conservative challenger to be successful, which is why Collins' challenge comes from the left, if you will.

I find it very hard to believe there would only be 2 candidates.  Being Senate Leader didn't help LBJ in 1960, and he wielded more power than any other Leader in history.

[impactreps]

I love the TL so far, but I agree with Bayh '10....there should be more candidates in the Iowa Caucus, especially if the Republicans are trying to take the WH back after 8 years of Democrat rule.

I figured that Thune's position as Senate Minority Leader would be enough to ward off any significant congressional opposition to him in the presidential race. Also, most conservatives would be behind Thune from the start, thus making it hard for a conservative challenger to be successful, which is why Collins' challenge comes from the left, if you will.

I find it very hard to believe there would only be 2 candidates.  Being Senate Leader didn't help LBJ in 1960, and he wielded more power than any other Leader in history.

Your points are exactly right. I chose to make this contest exclusively between Thune and Collins because I wanted to make a conservative vs. liberal battle without any spoilers on either side. Still, I see where you're coming from, so I will edit the beginning to add some minor candidates. I'm glad you enjoy the TL!

[Progressive]

Most likely Whomever your nominee is I'm going to have face my Democratic nominee in my 2016 Democratic TL

[impactreps]

Most likely Whomever your nominee is I'm going to have face my Democratic nominee in my 2016 Democratic TL

Cool! I'd love to see what that general election TL would look like!

[impactreps]

The weeks leading up to Super Tuesday I are filled with news on the Republican primary. Soon after Collins’ win in Nevada, former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee endorses Thune on his FOX News show “Huckabee,” stating “America cannot risk a continuation of the Obama legacy. We’ve suffered too much from the President’s fiscal irresponsibility and liberal policies. Senator Collins offers us more of the same. That’s why I am going to do all I can to help John Thune become our next President.”

Huckabee’s endorsement does not immediately alter the dynamics of the race, since most conservatives, and especially evangelicals, were already backing Thune. The Collins campaign, however, had hoped that the former Arkansas Governor would back them, thus allowing Collins to make inroads among the Religious Right.

Five days before Super Tuesday I, Collins does receive a much-sought after endorsement…from Rudy Giuliani. The former NYC Mayor announces in a written statement his support for Collins, praising her “sensible centrism” and advising GOP voters to “show the Democrats how to really make history” by nominating the first female candidate at the top of a major party ticket. Giuliani, who is well-regarded by conservatives despite policy disagreements, gives Collins her first boost of establishment support and her support among moderates and liberals solidifies as Super Tuesday I approaches.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Thune – 49%
Collins – 42%
Undecided – 9%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 49%
Thune – 42%
Undecided – 9%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 46%
Collins – 46%
Undecided – 8%

Super Tuesday I Results

Alaska Caucuses

John Thune – 65.43%

Susan Collins – 34.57%

Delaware Primary

Susan Collins – 61.34%

John Thune – 38.66%

Hawaii Caucuses

Susan Collins – 54.66%

John Thune – 45.34%

Idaho Primary

John Thune – 59.32%

Susan Collins – 40.68%

Maine Caucuses

Susan Collins – 74.48%

John Thune – 25.52%

Montana Primary

John Thune – 62.89%

Susan Collins – 37.11%

Nebraska Primary

John Thune – 60.09%

Susan Collins – 39.91%

New Mexico Primary

Susan Collins – 56.17%

John Thune – 43.83%

North Dakota Caucuses

John Thune – 65.41%

Susan Collins – 34.59%

Rhode Island Primary

Susan Collins – 66.45%

John Thune – 33.55%

South Dakota Primary

John Thune – 67.65%

Susan Collins – 32.35%

Vermont Primary

Susan Collins – 70.22%

John Thune – 29.78%

West Virginia Primary

John Thune – 59.45%

Susan Collins – 40.55%

Wyoming Caucuses

John Thune – 64.28%

Susan Collins – 35.72%

The Thune campaign celebrates victory on Super Tuesday I with large, yet expected victories in the conservative states of the Mountain West and rural Alaska and West Virginia. “Tonight,” Thune declares, “our party has wisely rejected a continuation of Barack Obama’s policies in the form of Susan Collins.” The willingness of Thune and conservatives to attack Collins as a continuation of Obama’s policies evolves into a strategy following Super Tuesday I.

Collins, meanwhile, is satisfied that she held her base in Vermont and Maine, and also picked up the crucial battlegrounds of Hawaii and New Mexico. “It’s time we moved out of the shadow of the past,” she says at her victory rally, “and it’s time we accepted the winds of the future.” This race is just getting started.

Delegates

John Thune – 156
Susan Collins – 140

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Your map has Vermont as red. Did Collins not win in Vermont?

[Progressive]

Any news on a Romney endorsement? McCain? Powell? Those would be amazing features in your already fun timeline. And, as I will likely put your candidate up against mine, haha, it is very exciting for me to watch. Keep up the good (realistic) TL work.

[impactreps]

Your map has Vermont as red. Did Collins not win in Vermont?

Sorry. I'll fix that.

Any news on a Romney endorsement? McCain? Powell? Those would be amazing features in your already fun timeline. And, as I will likely put your candidate up against mine, haha, it is very exciting for me to watch. Keep up the good (realistic) TL work.

Thanks for the compliment! As for the endorsements, you'll have to wait and see...

[impactreps]

With several weeks to go before the next round of contests, the media was fully focused on the Thune-Collins race. Thune, realizing that conservatives are solidly behind his candidacy, decides to make a push toward moderates, who are naturally moving toward the Collins camp. He tones down his opposition to abortion and gay marriage, and rebrands himself as “a conservative with heart.” While the changes do not immediately alter the dynamics of the race, the gaffe that follows may just give Collins an important advantage.

On March 15th, an audio tape surfaces of Thune’s speech at a private conservative fundraiser, in which he essentially pledges a litmus test for any Supreme Court justice he would appoint, saying “Realistically, I probably won’t consider nominating someone who would defend a right to privacy or otherwise holds pro-choice views.” The reaction is swift and severe. Collins blasts Thune for proscribing litmus tests to the highest court in the land, stating “John Thune’s approach toward the Supreme Court would be to politicize it and threaten its status as defender of the Constitution.” Even some of Thune’s supporters back away from the comment, with Mike Huckabee strongly criticizing the remark.

Media coverage of what comes to be known as the “litmus test remark” dominates the news cycle leading up to Super Tuesday II, and throws the Thune campaign off message. In addition, a backlash among moderates and independents causes Thune to slip in the polls against Collins among GOP voters, giving her her first lead among Republicans nationwide.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Collins – 49%
Thune – 45%
Undecided – 6%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 51%
Thune – 39%
Undecided – 10%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Collins – 47%
Warner – 44%
Undecided – 9%

In the midst of the litmus test remark, Collins receives two high-profile endorsements that only adds to her momentum going into Super Tuesday II. Three days before the contests, Mitt Romney and John McCain jointly announce their endorsement of Susan Collins on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” While the men acknowledge their specific policy disagreements with Collins, they both agree that the Republican Party needs diverse voices such as Collins in order to become the majority party. Romney adds “We’re not doing this because we dislike John Thune. We’re doing this because the Grand Old Party must tolerate opposing voices.” Following the announcement, the Thune campaign is reportedly outraged, and it leaks that the men had been on board to back Thune, but then changed their minds after the controversy. Whatever their motives, Collins receives an added bounce in the polls and heads into Super Tuesday II feeling more confident than ever.

(Results on next posting…)

[impactreps]

Super Tuesday II Results

Arizona Primary

John Thune – 50.38%

Susan Collins – 49.62%

California Primary

Susan Collins – 56.41%

John Thune – 43.59%

Connecticut Primary

Susan Collins – 64.27%

John Thune – 35.73%

Indiana Primary

John Thune – 52.52%

Susan Collins – 47.48%

Massachusetts Primary

Susan Collins – 68.36%

John Thune – 31.64%

New Jersey Primary

Susan Collins – 55.79%

John Thune – 44.21%

North Carolina Primary

John Thune – 56.21%

Susan Collins – 43.79%

Tennessee Primary

John Thune – 55.87%

Susan Collins – 44.13%

Virginia Primary

Susan Collins – 50.16%

John Thune – 49.84%

The results are a blowout victory for Susan Collins. She won overwhelmingly in the Northeast, as expected, and carried California to her satisfaction. The biggest surprise of the night, however, was Collins’ victory in Virginia. Thune held a slight lead in Virginia polls within the margin of error, but Collins made up for the deficit by running very strongly in the metropolitan areas and in Richmond and Arlington suburbs. The vote was so close that it took a week before news organizations could project Collins the winner in the state.

Besides Collins’ victory in Virginia, the other big story coming out of the night was that Collins surpassed Thune in the delegate count. For weeks the media had been predicting that it was possible, and when it happened, Collins was able to officially enjoy the term “frontrunner” for the Republican presidential nomination. Thune congratulated Collins on her wins, but campaign insiders told the media that they would begin to go a lot harder on Collins now that she was ahead. Whatever happens, there is no doubting that this is a battle for the heart and soul of the GOP.

Delegates

Susan Collins – 445
John Thune – 417

[tmthforu94]

The results you posted in Virginia are too far apart if it took a week to be called.

[impactreps]

The results you posted in Virginia are too far apart if it took a week to be called.

I imagined the results would be something like Collins ahead on election night 50.08%-49.92%, and absentee ballots could make the difference, which would take a week to count. That's good insight, though. Hope you're enjoying the TL!

[impactreps]

For John Thune, it seemed as though nothing could go right. When the controversy over the litmus test remarks finally subsided, he moved to continue his earlier shift to the center by offering a comprehensive education plan that set new standards and included a $20 billion tuition credit for college students. The plan was criticized from both sides of the aisle, with Collins and Democrats calling it “No Child Left Behind II” and Rush Limbaugh accusing Thune of “pandering to big-government liberals.” Meanwhile, Thune’s poll numbers continue to plunge against both Collins and Warner.

Nat’l. GOP Tracking Poll

Collins – 53%
Thune – 42%
Undecided – 5%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Warner – 55%
Thune – 35%
Undecided – 10%

Nat’l. Tracking Poll

Collins – 50%
Warner – 42%
Undecided – 8%

Finally, after realizing that their candidate’s appeals to moderates failed miserably and produced only missteps and verbal gaffes, the Thune campaign decided to cut their losses and abandon their new strategy. Only a week and a half after unveiling his new education plan, Thune backed away from it, declaring it was simply an idea rather than a concrete proposal. While the move brings another round of criticism from moderates and liberals, Thune’s sink of support from conservatives grinds to a halt. Attempting to win back conservatives and the party base, Thune finds a new, and what proves to be a far more effective, strategy.

First off, Thune challenged Collins to a one-on-one debate before the upcoming round of primaries and caucuses. The last debate between GOP candidates had been held before the New Hampshire primary, so there hadn’t been a face-to-face confrontation between Thune and Collins yet. Collins readily accepts, hoping her greater experience and better grasp of policy will allow her to dominate the debate and end Thune’s campaign once and for all. With insufficient time to arrange a formal debate, however, due to the small amount of time before Super Tuesday III, Thune and Collins agree to a debate on “Meet the Press” the Sunday before Super Tuesday III.

The several days preceding the debate are filled with spin and lowballing from both sides. Each candidate points out his or her opponent’s skills as a debater, with Thune supporter and former candidate Mike Pence saying “There is no doubting that Senator Collins is a formidable debater.” Sarah Palin, having yet to endorse a candidate, only adds to the intense interest surrounding the debate, telling the local press that she’ll definitely be watching the altercation; “This is as good as television gets,” she says with a smile. As the weekdays turn into the weekend, and Saturday turns into Sunday, both sides gear up for what pundits are terming “The Great GOP Showdown.”

(The debate on the next posting…)

[impactreps]

“Welcome to Meet the Press.  Today we have a very exciting show for you. In their first one-on-one debate as contenders for the Republican nomination for President, here are Senator Susan Collins of Maine and Senator John Thune of South Dakota.” The telecast was the most anticipated event of the entire election cycle; according to Nielsen, more than 50 million people were tuned into the event. Even Vice President Warner is watching; “I have to check out the competition,” he jokes.

The debate begins with each candidate’s opening statement. Collins says, “Americans want a President who will lead us past the Bush years and Obama years. A President who walks a middle ground and doesn’t succumb to either the far left or the far right. A President who will be the leader of all Americans, and not just those at the very top or the very bottom. I believe that I can be that President.”

Thune’s remarks are less general and more ideological. He first congratulates Collins on her achievement, saying, “I think all Americans and certainly all Republicans are proud of the fact that you are the most successful female candidate for President in our party’s history. I offer my congratulations in that regard.” However, Thune becomes somewhat more combative, saying, “I agree that the next President needs to listen and lead all Americans. But I also believe that Americans want a President who will stand up for his or her principles and offers the voters a clear choice, not an echo, with our opponents in November.”

The first twenty minutes or so of the debate focus mainly on foreign policy, which as a national issue is mostly moot since there are no dominant foreign policy crises in the midst of President Obama’s agreements with Iran and North Korea. Thune labels the agreements “détente” and adds, “These agreements are a one-way street. The Iranians and North Koreans say they won’t develop a nuclear weapon, but how do we know they’ll keep their word? Since when can we trust their promises?” Collins responds, “Sometimes sacrifices must be made for the greater good. I agree that these agreements aren’t perfect, but now if these nations break their word the whole world will know and will respond appropriately.”

Even on social issues, the platform on which the two candidates differ most prominently, there is little back-and-forth between Thune and Collins. The moderator, David Gregory, tries to raise the issue of Thune’s litmus test remark, but neither candidate seems keen on pushing it any further. Thune calls the remarks “a mistake, something I regret deeply,” while Collins adds “I think it’s time to put that behind us. We have pressing issues facing our party and our country.”

When the debate turns toward the economy, however, pundits and viewers get the heat and intensity they had been waiting for. The argument begins when Gregory asks Collins, “As President, would you most follow and emulate the economic policy of Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton?” Collins, not directly responding to the question, instead states, “If I am President, what will be most important is not strictly adhering to an ideology, but trying to end the fiscal recklessness of the Obama administration.” Thune sees an opportunity to jump in, and interjects, “Senator Collins, with all due respect, you helped bring about that recklessness. You voted for Obama’s stimulus package, and you voted for all but three of Obama’s budgets. How can we expect you to be a fiscal conservative when your record these past eight years had been anything but that?”

Collins counters, “At the time, during the worst economic recession in our generation, we needed action. I’m not saying I found that bill perfect, but action needed to be taken, which is why I voted for that bill.” Thune replies again, “Listen, Senator. You can vote for whatever you want. We can debate the merits of that bill. But I think it’s hypocritical of you, quite frankly, to attack the fiscal irresponsibility of this President when you essentially were a part of that irresponsibility. If you’re going to be fiscally conservative as President, you should explain to the American people why your record runs exactly counter to that.”

“My record is my record,” Collins retorts, “I speak for myself. But maybe you, as the leader of our party in the Senate, should explain why you would rather oppose everything the President does and offer no constructive alternative.”

“Wait a minute, Senator,” Thune answers while David Gregory attempts to control the argument. “To say all I’ve done is been the ‘Senator of No’ is completely off the mark. I’ve cosponsored four different budgets in the past four years, but all of them failed, and you voted for none of them. It seems to me that what you’re offering is a third term of Barack Obama when it comes to the economy, and I think we need a third term of Ronald Reagan.”

“A third term of Barack Obama?” Collins asks in surprise. “Mark Warner would be a third term of Barack Obama. You would be a third term of George W. Bush. I would be two terms of Susan Collins.” Thune immediately responds, “Then why don’t we see Susan Collins adopt some Republican ideas for a change.”

The argument goes back-and-forth for several more minutes before David Gregory finally cuts it off and goes to a commercial break. When they return, Gregory asks the candidates to make their closing statements. Thune, taking one of Collins’ campaign lines, says “I do believe it’s time we accepted the winds of the future. The only way we can do that is if we reject the Obama legacy and choose common sense conservatism over Obama-style liberalism.” Collins, trying to go above the fray, simply states, “Let’s not let partisan distraction get in the way of providing solutions for Americans. Let’s work together, Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives, to help make America the best it can be.”

With that, the GOP presidential debate, and the most exciting 60 minutes of the 2016 election cycle, is over, and now it’s time for the fallout.

[tmthforu94]

Exciting debate. I think Collins won some support with saying Thune would be Bush's 3rd term, and probably won a few more with being called "Obama's 3rd term". However Thune scored big on Collins voting record.
Overall, Collins improved nationally against Warner, while Thune improved in the party.

[pogo stick]

Go Thune for President!!!!

It'd be funny if it was a Thune /Collins or a Collins /Thune ticket

[impactreps]

“Now that was television!” exclaims Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’S Hardball, the Monday following the debate. “Talk about the Republican candidates. This race is far from over!” Matthews’ sentiment is shared by nearly everyone who is following the Thune-Collins race. “The most exciting Republican primary race in 40 years,” begins George Will’s column, “just had the heat turned up with Sunday’s debate.”

Indeed, the effect of each candidate’s debate performance is beginning to sink in during the 48 hours between the debate and Super Tuesday III. With such little time between the debate and the primaries, the initial impressions of the candidates will likely have a greater effect than any one policy statement or disagreements between them. Judging by this standard, it seems rather difficult to determine who will benefit from the debate. Two polls conducted by CNN give varying results as to who the winner might be.

“Who do you think won the Republican presidential debate?”

Poll: Registered Republicans only

Thune – 56%
Collins – 33%
Not sure/No opinion – 11%

Poll: Republicans incl. Independents

Collins – 50%
Thune – 43%
Not sure/No opinion – 7%

Pundits, meanwhile, continue to dissect each candidate’s performance ahead of the 16 primaries and caucuses the next day. Many moderate Republican or independent pundits declare that Collins put in the strongest performance. Juan Williams of Fox News cites her rebuke of Thune’s charge that her Presidency would be Obama's third term, saying “After Susan Collins’ effectively and decisively rebuffed Thune’s attacks, I don’t see how this can become a viable strategy in the days ahead.” Fred Barnes of Fox News, however, offers his analysis that “however effective Collins’ rebuke may have been, the fact is that she was the chief Republican cheerleader of President Obama’s economic agenda in Congress. I think Thune should and will raise this issue in the days ahead, and it will work for him.”

The debate analysis is put on hold temporarily when a surprise endorsement is announced Monday afternoon. Appearing at a Thune event in Missouri, former Alaska Governor and 2008 v.p candidate Sarah Palin announces her support of Senator Thune. “After Sunday’s debate, it is clearer than ever that John Thune is the right choice for the Republican Party and the right choice for America.” This unexpected endorsement sends shockwaves throughout the political world, with pundits now speculating that the Republican establishment is now closing ranks behind Thune in order to prevent a liberal takeover of the party led by Susan Collins.

As the hours tick by, the entire country will know in just a few short hours who will retain or take the title of frontrunner on Super Tuesday III.

(Results on next posting…)

[tmthforu94]

Ohh! Please have results soon. I'm anxious!

[pogo stick]

Thune 2016!! Lol