The race right now

[© tweed]

I say Bush by 1-2%.

[YRABNNRM]

Basically a tie.

[nini2287]

I think Bush is still ahead but not by much (no more than 3-4 points), but if the cheat sheet turns out to be signifcant (and I sure hope not) Bush could open up a lead again.

[Keystone Phil]

Bush up 3%

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'd guess Bush +2, probably Bush +1 w/o Nader.

[jacob_101]

Bush up 3 or 4

[Sam Spade]

Bush by 3-5.  If he inferred by the public as doing this badly in the next debate, there is good chance it would go to a tie.

I will reevaluate with more polls in the middle of the week.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bush by 3-4%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Bush up now 4 to 5.

I really feel sorry for Team Kerry.

First, they'll be compared to the Gore effort in 2000, which was technically brilliant.  Unfortunately, most Dems don't appreciate just how good a job Team Gore did in 2000 (interestingly, the Republicans have more respect for the job done by Team Gore than the Dems do).

Second, the demographics have continued to slide in favor of the Republicans.  If Bush carried al the same states in 2004 as he did in 2000, he would win by a larger margin in the electoral college than he did in 2000.

Third, all the things that the Democrats had anticipated as working in their favor have flopped:

a.) The economy (especially unemployment) has pretty consistently impoved over the last two quarters.

b.) Since the installation of the new Iraqi government, things have significantly improved in Iraq.

c.) The 'war hero' hype for Kerry has completely bombed.

d.) The belief that somehow the debates would suddently change the dynamics of the elections also (as of the first debate) seems to have fizzled.

e.) The forged papers fiasco at CBS has put the liberal media on a short leash for their planned attack on George Bush.

f.) The 527s that the Democrats counted on to make up for their deficiencies have (so far) bombed.

The question becomes, what have they got left?

The old standby of scaring seniors over social security doesn't work anymore.  After all, it was Bush who pushed through prescription drug benefits.

The 'racism' angle doesn't work anymore either.  Remember that several of the most notable Bush administration appointees are black.

Kerry cann't even scare the Jewish vote, which sees Bush as more favorable to their interests than Kerry.

Gun control only backfires for the Democrats (pun intended).

If Kerry raises the abortion issue, the Bush people are ready to point out his support for partial birth abortion and his opposition to Laura's law.

With Michigan being seriously contested, Kerry cann't push his CAFE standards approach (which would probably increase sales of Japanese/Korean vehicles and decrease sales of American made vehicles, especially SUVs).

Kerry cann't push his approach to crime, as he opposes capital punishment (remember Dukakis).

Kerry cann't say to much about the budget deficit as he proposes to spend more than Bush and proposes tax increases to boot (remember Mondale).

Kerry cann't push 'likability' or 'trustworthyness' as the public considers Bush both more likeable and more trustworthy.

[??????????]

Bush 5+%.

[Defarge]

Kerry 0-1

[freedomburns]

Kerry by 1-2%.  You can't trust the polls.

[A18]

Bush is up 4-6%.

[Smash255]

Bush up now 4 to 5.

I really feel sorry for Team Kerry.

First, they'll be compared to the Gore effort in 2000, which was technically brilliant.  Unfortunately, most Dems don't appreciate just how good a job Team Gore did in 2000 (interestingly, the Republicans have more respect for the job done by Team Gore than the Dems do).

Second, the demographics have continued to slide in favor of the Republicans.  If Bush carried al the same states in 2004 as he did in 2000, he would win by a larger margin in the electoral college than he did in 2000.

Third, all the things that the Democrats had anticipated as working in their favor have flopped:

a.) The economy (especially unemployment) has pretty consistently impoved over the last two quarters.

b.) Since the installation of the new Iraqi government, things have significantly improved in Iraq.

c.) The 'war hero' hype for Kerry has completely bombed.

d.) The belief that somehow the debates would suddently change the dynamics of the elections also (as of the first debate) seems to have fizzled.

e.) The forged papers fiasco at CBS has put the liberal media on a short leash for their planned attack on George Bush.

f.) The 527s that the Democrats counted on to make up for their deficiencies have (so far) bombed.

The question becomes, what have they got left?

The old standby of scaring seniors over social security doesn't work anymore.  After all, it was Bush who pushed through prescription drug benefits.

The 'racism' angle doesn't work anymore either.  Remember that several of the most notable Bush administration appointees are black.

Kerry cann't even scare the Jewish vote, which sees Bush as more favorable to their interests than Kerry.

Gun control only backfires for the Democrats (pun intended).

If Kerry raises the abortion issue, the Bush people are ready to point out his support for partial birth abortion and his opposition to Laura's law.

With Michigan being seriously contested, Kerry cann't push his CAFE standards approach (which would probably increase sales of Japanese/Korean vehicles and decrease sales of American made vehicles, especially SUVs).

Kerry cann't push his approach to crime, as he opposes capital punishment (remember Dukakis).

Kerry cann't say to much about the budget deficit as he proposes to spend more than Bush and proposes tax increases to boot (remember Mondale).

Kerry cann't push 'likability' or 'trustworthyness' as the public considers Bush both more likeable and more trustworthy.

A.  Granted, but its still quite a bit higher than when Bush took office

B.  Things in Iraq have improved??  Umm what?/  Their are more bombings and deaths in Iraq now than before the Interim govt took over

c.  Not really

D.  The polls show the race quite a bit closer than before the debate

E  Oh please the "liberal media"

[Giant Saguaro]

Right now, Bush 3-5, but that is very tenuous. That's what I call a fluid lead.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bush by 1-2 points. 

The race looks good for Kerry right now.  The town hall meeting covers all topics, and Kerry has been showing strength in just about every area recently.  And with the tough, rapid-fire questions you are going to get from a hall of undecided voters, the former prosecutor shouldn't have a hard time.  Then, there's another debate on domestic issues, in a similar format to the first debate.  Looks good for Kerry both ways there.  Not only that, it's been reported there has been record new voter registrations, and most have been in urban areas of battleround states.  We will hear from these people on Nov.2, I can guarentee you that. 

[mddem2004]

Bush up 1%.

More importantly Bush is below 50%. Probably at about 47% - 48%. Not good for an incumbant. Incumbants generally on average lose about .5% of their final weeks average in the polls and challengers get up to 4% more than their final weeks average in the polls.

Bush's numbers, as the incumbant, are his ceiling at this point - Kerrys, as the challenger, are his floor.

Judging from the crush of new registrations pouring in, my gut says the LV model may be less accurate than we are generally accustomed to.

If Kerry keeps this thing to a -2% or less race I am VERY confident he will win.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bush up 1%.

More importantly Bush is below 50%. Probably at about 47% - 48%. Not good for an incumbant. Incumbants generally on average lose about .5% of their final weeks average in the polls and challengers get up to 4% more than their final weeks average in the polls.

Bush's numbers, as the incumbant, are his ceiling at this point - Kerrys, as the challenger, are his floor.

Judging from the crush of new registrations pouring in, my gut says the LV model may be less accurate than we are generally accustomed to.

If Kerry keeps this thing to a -2% or less race I am VERY confident he will win.

If the polls show Kerry tied or one back of Bush election day, he will win.  I'd say 90% of Bush voters decided that's the way they would go a long time ago.  Undecideds will break for Kerry 60-40. 

[A18]

If the RV model is to be believed, Bush is ahead by more.

I think undecideds will go for the safe pick and break 70-30 for Bush.

[AuH2O]

People that decide in the last week will go Bush 55-45 or so.

[A18]

If it's not close, I think a lot of Kerry voters may stay home.

[Pollwatch99]

My view is had Bush had the strong performance and Kerry the weak performance, the race was over.  Given the outcome, Bush's lead was reduced( I always believed it was 4-5%).  My view Bush is 2%-3% ( I'll remind my democratic friends that most love Zogby).  My view is based upon looking at the broad range of polls.

Here is my take.  America agrees with Bush on the issues, generally likes him and trusts him.  One bad debate performance is recoverable.  Bush only needs to get his posture, body language, voice tone, and demanor correct.  That alone will really help.  Then he needs to fire back at Kerry.  He doesn't need to win the tit-tat debating points as long as he can defend his policies.  He does that he wins.

Given Bush's verbal skills, this is a challenge.  Time will tell, I'm optimistic.
 
  

[mddem2004]

If it's not close, I think a lot of Kerry voters may stay home.

Historically its at least 67% to the challenger to 33% to the incumbant.

That means an undecided block of 4% or so the last week would tack on another 2.68% Kerry to 1.38% Bush. A net of 1.3% to Kerry.

[A18]

No, not for the presidency. Undecideds break for incumbants, it seems.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If it's not close, I think a lot of Kerry voters may stay home.

What?!  Most solid Kerry voters despise Bush!  For what reason would they stay home other than Phillip wants Bush to win?  Couldn't you also just say for a Bush supporter "Oh Bush is going to win, might as well just stay home" 

And you think undecided will break 70-30 for Bush?

Seriously, what is this Bush-happy fantasy land you are living in?