will the djia exceed 10,000 by the end of summer?

[WalterMitty]

discuss.

[??????????]

Nope. I still don't believe we're in a recovery. Actually I think we aren't even in the worst part yet.

[k-onmmunist]

Presuming end of summer = September, yes.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I doubt it.  We'll hover between 8000 and 9500 for at least 12 months.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We might stick around 8500 before taking another short term dip. I'm not sure if I should cash out soon or stay in until August. The money I have in the market isn't any that I actually need anytime soon, so I may just go long on my financials assuming we don't nationalize them all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. Most likely it'll be around 5000 and that's if we're lucky, 2000 is certainly possible. I can't explain why, you just have to trust my intuition on this.

[k-onmmunist]

No. Most likely it'll be around 5000 and that's if we're lucky, 2000 is certainly possible. I can't explain why, you just have to trust my intuition on this.

LOL.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think 9,000 by August is certainly doable, but 10,000? I think it will be late fall/early winter at the earliest before we see that.

[Verily]

10,000 by the end of December might not be overly optimistic, but 10,000 by the end of the summer certainly is. 10,000 by the end of next summer would be very realist.

[TeePee4Prez]

Wonder what the P/E ratio is of the Dow right now?  I know Sam Spade will probably say we should be lower, but the average over the last 20 years is higher than the average P/E before that.  I think more analysts will look at the PEG ratio which takes future growth into account.  Of course the G number is very subjective.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Spade has been pretty accurate on his prediction so far. He predicted we'd rally to S&P 900 to 1000 back in March. We have some people claiming we are now in a bull market and other saying we are looking at an overbought market primed for a pullback, possibly to test the lows of March. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. I don't know whether to cash out and wait or just go long.

[Sam Spade]

I like BRTD's comment but also Duke's.  They're amusing, kinda.

Here's the point on the market folks.  There's an old saying "Sell in May and go away".  It usually starts occurring a few weeks in, but whatever.  Didn't occur last year until the end of the month.  In fact, stock market returns (even during bull markets) consistently under perform between May-October (and overperform the other six months).  Just a fact.

Anyway, long-term view, I've said since the beginning this is a bear-market rally and may well be the bear market rally of all bear-market rallies (in the beginning of a secular bear market).

But since I'm willing to listen to other points of view - there are two technical things that speak otherwise.  There are no fundamental things that say otherwise, unless you believe "less bad" is somehow improvement in the overall picture.  They are 1) at SP 500 @ 666, DOW @ 6547, both indices hit long-term up trendlines that go back to the 1987 crash and 2) Nasdaq never went below its November low, possibly saying double-bottom.

The really strong argument for this being nothing more than a big bear market rally is the fact that, since we hit about SP @ 860 or so, the thing is going parabolic.  Beginnings of new bull markets begin out parabolic and then settle into a slow, steady ascent.  This rally began out parabolic, went into a slow, steady ascent for a little while and has now gone parabolic again for the last few weeks.  Classic signal of a bear market rally in my view.

The more parabolic the market goes, the more likely the reverse will be nasty.  In fact, the more parabolic it goes, the more likely 666 does not hold (and it could happen quite quickly).  If we pull back from this point, maybe we get another surge in June before likely visiting the gates of hell.

Anyway, I would not want to be holding long right now just because of this problem, though you may be ok.  I have warned in January not to hold long past the 6 month point.  I see no reason to change from that position.