Are we ever going to see a Dem. Presidential Candidate oppose gay marriage again

[Lunar]

With gay marriage surging in many states and starting to define the Democratic establishment in Iowa and New Hampshire, is it feasible that we'll never again have a Democratic nominee that opposes gay marriage?  I say most certainly, with possibly a handful of potential exceptions like an elderly Hillary Clinton or, sigh, Mark Warner.  Even Obama, although technically opposing gay marriage, Opposed Prop 8, and was on record in 1996 advocating for gay marriage.

It doesn't seem feasible that an anti-gay marriage Democrat will ever again be able to win a competitive primary (for governor or Senate) in a state like IL, CA, NY, or MA, the type of states that produce early frontrunners for the nomination.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

We'll probably see 1 or 2 more, and then there will be people who aren't on record either way, and only oppose it in private.

[Stranger in a strange land]

yes, because Hillary Clinton will run in 2016. After that, however, probably not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Never.
And certainly not after 2020 : Gay mariage will pass, because it's an human progress fighting against religious obscurantism and stupid prejudices. As the abortion or the Earth turning around the Sun, religion has no chance to win : humans are stupid, but not at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

In 2016, probably, as the nominee will likely be Clinton or Biden. After that, I strongly doubt it. By the 2020s gay marriage will be fairly widely accepted, with only the last bastions of hateful fundamentalist intolerance in the South still opposed to it.

[Lunar]

We'll see.  I'm not sure if opposing gay marriage will ever again be anything but a hindrance until the South Carolina Democratic Primary.

And then we're talking about where candidates emerge from - typically frontrunners come from statewide offices in the large states where a competitive Democratic primary could easily force all Democratiac candidates to support gay marriage.  CA's AG, Brown, is grandstanding on the issue, and of course Gavin Newsom, Antonio Villaraigosa, and the rest of the Democrats beat the Prop 8 drum constantly for their higher ambitions.  In the NY Senate pick, many of the candidates like Caroline Kennedy, staked out an early position in favor of gay marriage in order to draw establishment support.  Schumer himself recently reversed his stance on gay marriage and now declares his support for it, and despite his liberal bent, he is not on the cutting edge of social issues.  In a span of what, two years, New York has gone from its governor and two senators all opposing gay marriage to all of them proudly supporting it?  Sure, smaller-state Democrats and Southern pseudo-moderates may "just" support civil  unions, we'll see.

If you remember, even Howard Dean opposed gay marriage, and six years ago people were aghast at Vermont's stance on civil unions.

[Daniel Z]

No. Within the next 20 years or so the Republican candidate will probably be i n support of gay marriage too, or at least civil unions. Also who is to say Clinton and Biden won't flip flop in 2016 if they chose to run. Politicans have been known to change their positions with public opinion before.

[Lunar]

No. Within the next 20 years or so the Republican candidate will probably be i n support of gay marriage too, or at least civil unions.

Whoah, probably not.  The GOP isn't about to stop becoming socially conservative on gay rights in 20 years.

I could easily see no future GOP presidential candidates opposing civil unions, McCain supported CU's, right?  I can't really see it being a viable position to oppose basic hospital visitation rights and whatnot for gay partners.

[Daniel Z]

No. Within the next 20 years or so the Republican candidate will probably be i n support of gay marriage too, or at least civil unions.

Whoah, probably not.  The GOP isn't about to stop becoming socially conservative on gay rights in 20 years.

I could easily see no future GOP presidential candidates opposing civil unions, McCain supported CU's, right?  I can't really see it being a viable position to oppose basic hospital visitation rights and whatnot for gay partners.

It could depend on whether or not a bunch of states legalize gay marriage. If by2028 a majority of states (or even all states) have gay marriage it may not be politically helpfull to be strongly opposed to gay marriage. If anything the republican candidate will probably argue that it is a states rights issue, but not actively oppose gay marriage.

[Lunar]

..basically a lot of candidates' position towards abortion (overturn Roe, let states decide)

[Ogre Mage]

It depends to what degree progress is made in the states on the issue by 2016.  The Democratic Presidential Candidates will take their cue from the grassroots.  I hypothesize that if at least around a dozen states pass gay marriage or fully equal civil unions and public opinion polls show support for gay marriage at least not far from 50%, supporting gay marriage will become the mainstream Democratic position in 2016.  There may be some Dem Presidential candidates opposing it, but their view will not be considered mainstream party orthodoxy.

I would say that Obama, Clinton and probably Biden's current stance against gay marriage is political posturing, not true conviction.

I also predict that my home state, Washington, will legalize gay marriage by 2016.

[hyouzel the predictor]

In 2016, probably, as the nominee will likely be Clinton or Biden. After that, I strongly doubt it. By the 2020s gay marriage will be fairly widely accepted, with only the last bastions of hateful fundamentalist intolerance in the South still opposed to it.

Called it

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Never.
And certainly not after 2020 : Gay mariage will pass, because it's an human progress fighting against religious obscurantism and stupid prejudices. As the abortion or the Earth turning around the Sun, religion has no chance to win : humans are stupid, but not at this point.

Lmao
Something tells me 2020 Antonio would word it a bit differently from 2009 Antonio.

[sorry, it's hyouzel who bumped the thread]

[°Leprechaun]

The question now is, are we ever going to see a ReTrumplican POTUS candidate oppose gay marriage again?

[Del Tachi]

In 2016, probably, as the nominee will likely be Clinton or Biden. After that, I strongly doubt it. By the 2020s gay marriage will be fairly widely accepted, with only the last bastions of hateful fundamentalist intolerance in the South still opposed to it.

Called it

Uhm, no?  Hillary Clinton (and Joe Biden for good measure) supported gay marriage by 2016

[Agonized-Statism]

It really is wild how quickly America went from a serious debate over a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage to no serious politician bashing gays if they want to keep their career a decade later. That's a much faster jump than freedmen got to desegregstion or the progression of women's rights. Safe to say the answer to this question is a resounding "no", but seeing how many liberals are backing J.K. Rowling, I see plenty of transphobic Democrat candidates in the foreseeable future. The 2020s aren't shaping up to be another counterculture decade like the 2010s. But who knows, maybe I'll be impressed again in 2030.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Never.
And certainly not after 2020 : Gay mariage will pass, because it's an human progress fighting against religious obscurantism and stupid prejudices. As the abortion or the Earth turning around the Sun, religion has no chance to win : humans are stupid, but not at this point.

Lmao
Something tells me 2020 Antonio would word it a bit differently from 2009 Antonio.

[sorry, it's hyouzel who bumped the thread]

hahahahahahahahaha oh boy

In my defense, I was studying at a very right-wing Catholic high school at the time. It should tell you something that I got more and more positive on religion the further away from it I got.

I will have no further comment on account on the Atlas Statute of Limitations on old posts.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I thought this was a Bronz thread until I read the date of the OP

[OSR stands with Israel]

No. Within the next 20 years or so the Republican candidate will probably be i n support of gay marriage too, or at least civil unions.

Whoah, probably not.  The GOP isn't about to stop becoming socially conservative on gay rights in 20 years.

I could easily see no future GOP presidential candidates opposing civil unions, McCain supported CU's, right?  I can't really see it being a viable position to oppose basic hospital visitation rights and whatnot for gay partners.

Literally happened in 2016 lol

[hyouzel the predictor]

In 2016, probably, as the nominee will likely be Clinton or Biden. After that, I strongly doubt it. By the 2020s gay marriage will be fairly widely accepted, with only the last bastions of hateful fundamentalist intolerance in the South still opposed to it.

Called it

Uhm, no?  Hillary Clinton (and Joe Biden for good measure) supported gay marriage by 2016

I meant that Lief predicted the two subsequent Dem nominees all the way back in 2009.

Given, a Clinton ticket seemed like an eventuality at the time, but even in the correct order is pretty impressive.