NY-Senate/Quinnipiac: Gillibrand (D) loses Primary, but beats King (R) in the GE

[Tender Branson]

DEM Primary:

Carolyn McCarthy: 33%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 29%

General Election:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 40%
Peter King (R): 28%

Favorable Ratings:

Gillibrand: 24% favorable, 11% unfavorable
McCarthy: 23% favorable, 8% unfavorable
King: 22% favorable, 11% unfavorable

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?

33% Approve
13% Disapprove

From April 1- 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,528 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 664 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1284

[Sam Spade]

As stated before, these types of polls are worse than useless.

[Lunar]

indeed they are.  It's better to be unsure than to be told blatant lies.

[Torie]

Is this all an upstate versus The Big Apple thingy?

[Lunar]

Is this all an upstate versus The Big Apple thingy?

twenty months out, that wouldn't be the worst way of framing it.


not a particularly good way, but better than most of the analysts


I would bet any amount of money against a Senator Carolyn McCarthy.  Any amount.

[Rowan]

Safe Gillibrand.

[Torie]

Is this all an upstate versus The Big Apple thingy?

twenty months out, that wouldn't be the worst way of framing it.


not a particularly good way, but better than most of the analysts


I would bet any amount of money against a Senator Carolyn McCarthy.  Any amount.

Ya, the Carolyn McCarthy I used to know and love was a  ditz.

[Eraserhead]

McCarthy had a considerably bigger lead in the last poll anyway.

[Smash255]

Is this all an upstate versus The Big Apple thingy?

twenty months out, that wouldn't be the worst way of framing it.


not a particularly good way, but better than most of the analysts


I would bet any amount of money against a Senator Carolyn McCarthy.  Any amount.

I doubt she runs, she has already stated if someone younger jumps in she will back out.  My guess is either Maloney or Israel will be the ones to jump in and Gillibrand will have a real tough time against either one.

[Lunar]

I bet neither of them will enter the race, but there will be two or more younger people who are elected in off-years and don't have to give up their current positions.  Israel and Maloney are positioning themselves to take advantage of any of Gillibrand's mistakes, but they haven't done anything yet to make themselves credible.  If one of them were to declare now, he or she would raise a lot more money and scare most of the potential other challengers out.  The fact that they haven't declared is meaningful

[Smash255]

I bet neither of them will enter the race, but there will be two or more younger people who are elected in off-years and don't have to give up their current positions.  Israel and Maloney are positioning themselves to take advantage of any of Gillibrand's mistakes, but they haven't done anything yet to make themselves credible.  If one of them were to declare now, he or she would raise a lot more money and scare most of the potential other challengers out.  The fact that they haven't declared is meaningful

Its 17 months before the Primary, plenty of time.

[Smash255]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-pojani1012637822apr09,0,7235510.story

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

I really don't think it makes any difference at all here.

[Smash255]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

It really makes no difference, whoever the Democrat is (Jewish or not) will be the one elected. 

[Lunar]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

Being Jewish is an asset in the critically important NYC vote for the Democratic primary. I'm sure Eliot Spitzer, Bloomberg, Schumer, Weiner, etc. didn't suffer.

[Verily]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

Being Jewish is an asset in the critically important NYC vote for the Democratic primary. I'm sure Eliot Spitzer, Bloomberg, Schumer, Weiner, etc. didn't suffer.

Pretty much. The NYC white vote is usually the decisive factor in any Democratic primary, with the others typically being much more predictable. And NYC as a whole is something like 23% Jewish, which means well over half of the NYC white population is Jewish.

[Rowan]

What about the black Jewish vote?

[Lunar]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

Being Jewish is an asset in the critically important NYC vote for the Democratic primary. I'm sure Eliot Spitzer, Bloomberg, Schumer, Weiner, etc. didn't suffer.

Pretty much. The NYC white vote is usually the decisive factor in any Democratic primary, with the others typically being much more predictable. And NYC as a whole is something like 23% Jewish, which means well over half of the NYC white population is Jewish.

indeed, there are twice as many Jews in NYC as Protestants (and more than twice as many Jews as Jerusalem).  If you're talking about % of local big-check campaign contributions, that number shoots up even more I'd bet...

[Torie]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

Being Jewish is an asset in the critically important NYC vote for the Democratic primary. I'm sure Eliot Spitzer, Bloomberg, Schumer, Weiner, etc. didn't suffer.

Pretty much. The NYC white vote is usually the decisive factor in any Democratic primary, with the others typically being much more predictable. And NYC as a whole is something like 23% Jewish, which means well over half of the NYC white population is Jewish.

FWIW from Wikipedia (notice the relatively high unaffiliated percentage, and how it spikes in Queens for some reason; is Queens an atheist haven packed with my kind of crowd?):

[Verily]

Just asking.
Is it really possible that New Yorkers will vote to send a second Jewish man to the senate?

I know that Wisconsin did it, but they didn't have all these different ethnic, religious and minority groups scrambling for power and representation as New York has. 

Being Jewish is an asset in the critically important NYC vote for the Democratic primary. I'm sure Eliot Spitzer, Bloomberg, Schumer, Weiner, etc. didn't suffer.

Pretty much. The NYC white vote is usually the decisive factor in any Democratic primary, with the others typically being much more predictable. And NYC as a whole is something like 23% Jewish, which means well over half of the NYC white population is Jewish.

FWIW from Wikipedia (notice the relatively high unaffiliated percentage, and how it spikes in Queens for some reason; is Queens an atheist haven packed with my kind of crowd?):

I would guess it has to do with Eastern European (i.e. former Soviet bloc) immigrants. Maybe mainland Chinese, too. Not your crowd. The Wikipedia article might have been vandalized, though, 37% is ridiculously high given the black and Hispanic populations in Queens.

[Rowan]

"Not Affiliated" doesn't mean Atheist.

[Torie]

"Not Affiliated" doesn't mean Atheist.

Ya, but it is an adjacent neighborhood no?  I mean one who does not subscribe to organized religion is a bit of a free floater no?

[Rowan]

"Not Affiliated" doesn't mean Atheist.

Ya, but it is an adjacent neighborhood no?  I mean one who does not subscribe to organized religion is a bit of a free floater no?

I know quite a few people who don't belong to an organized religion but believe in God and worship and pray in their own way.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Queens has huge Asian communities, many of which are Buddhist, but Buddhism isn't really a religion so maybe that's why.  There are also big Eastern European communities.  Hipsters too but not more than Brooklyn. 

Oh wait no.. Non-Affiliated probably stands for Christians that are neither Catholic nor Protestant and Queens has huge Greek and Russian communities (Orthodox Christians).