Swedish right re-takes lead in dubious polls

[Gustaf]

Two recent polls from Sweden's least reputable pollsters show the centre-right coalition government opening a lead on the opposition for the first time since the autumn of 2006.

After a series of scandals and negative media coverage the government sank like a stone in opinion polls during 2006 and 2007 and was down by more than 20% when it was at its worse. After Mona Sahlin, the new leader of the main opposition party, the Social Democrats (S), started to come out with actual policy proposals and preparations for forming a government they began losing ground rapidly.

Two polls now show the government ahead, by 2% and 5% respectively. One also shows conservative M, leader of the government coalition, overtaking S for the title of biggest party, a position held by S since the introduction of universal suffrage 85 years ago.

While it should be noted that Demoskop and Skop, who are behind these two polls, pretty much suck badly, it is still a worrying sign for the opposition, since it indicates a continuation of their negative trend and, most importantly, is generating a lot of negative media.

The big news right now is that just as the left was gearing up on criticizing bonuses paid out to CEOs it turned out that the head of LO, the blue-collar trade union organization, had granted such a large bonus for the CEO of AMF (where she is on the board), a retirement fund which handles retirement money for most LO-members. This had led to open hostility within the labour movement and today she was forced to resign from her board position.

S is looking absurdly leaderless. I'm willing to bet money that if this poll-drop is confirmed by reputable pollsters there will be an attempt to oust Sahlin from the leadership. It may not be overt and it probably won't succeed, but there will be people who will want to try it.

Also, xenophobia looks set to return to the Swedish Riksdag, with SD, Sweden Democrats, hovering around the 4%-threshold for getting seats. Right now, the media is doing their best to crush them, but I suspect it may create a back-lash in their favour. Unstable government, here we go...

[Tender Branson]

In the unlikey event of Sahlin being ousted, who is likely to replace her ?

Also, xenophobia looks set to return to the Swedish Riksdag, with SD, Sweden Democrats, hovering around the 4%-threshold for getting seats. Right now, the media is doing their best to crush them, but I suspect it may create a back-lash in their favour. Unstable government, here we go...

Here they are at 30% right now and already in Parliament ...

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Here's to hoping that the Social Democrats continue to fall.

[Gustaf]

In the unlikey event of Sahlin being ousted, who is likely to replace her ?

Also, xenophobia looks set to return to the Swedish Riksdag, with SD, Sweden Democrats, hovering around the 4%-threshold for getting seats. Right now, the media is doing their best to crush them, but I suspect it may create a back-lash in their favour. Unstable government, here we go...

Here they are at 30% right now and already in Parliament ...

Hard to say. Some are probably still hoping for Margot Wallström, the Swedish EU commissioner, but she has gotten too used to European politics to want it. Carin Jämtin, who leads S in Stockholm, tried last time around and could be a candidate. Thomas Östros, who was responsible, first for education and then for business issues in the last S-government could also be a candidate. A potential dark horse could be Pär Nuder who was minister of finance and closely linked to Göran Persson, the former leader. Nuder was forced out of power when Sahlin took over and has left pretty much all positions within the party. If Sahlin was really brought down he could be revived.

But I should stress that it would be unprecedented and very shocking if Sahlin was forced to resign. The factors supporting it is a) there is an extreme internal hostility towards her and b) they want to win really, really badly and she's destroying their chances.

[War on Want]

I hope the Social Democrats make a comeback.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Sifo/Svenska Dagbladet poll:

S: 34.6%
MP: 8.6%
V: 5.3%

Red–Green Bloc: 48.5%

M: 30.6%
FP: 6.8%
C: 5.8%
KD: 4.1%

Alliance for Sweden: 47.3%

SD: 2.8%
Others: 1.5%

http://www.sifo.se/Public/Dynamic/ArticleFile.aspx?FileId=646aabae-55ba-4579-8841-4ed297d1504c

[Rowan]

By "least reputable pollster" you mean the Swedish equivalent of Zogby?

[Tender Branson]

People in Sweden are now in favor of adopting the Euro (€), according to Sifo:

47% for
45% against

Also, the new Skop poll (allthough this poll sucks according to Gustaf):

S: 33.8%
V: 6.7%
MP: 5.0%

Red–Green Bloc: 45.5%

M: 33.2
C: 7.0
FP: 6.5
KD: 3.9

Alliance for Sweden: 50.6%

SD: 3.2
Others: 0.7%

[Hash]

If any polls show M ahead of S, then I think we should laugh at that pollster for eternity.

[Gustaf]

The two final Skop-polls that immediately come to mind are:

Final 1998 poll: they had S at 45%, gaining from the last election.
Actual result: worse S-result since the introduction of universal suffrage (36%).

Final euro-referendum poll: 50-50 dead heat.
Actual result: no-side won by 14% (56-42)

So, yeah, it's Zogby-like. Also, they typically conduct their polls over 3 or 4 weeks and they often ask "what party do you think is best" instead of "which party would you vote for if the election was held today"

SIFO, on the other hand, is the gold-standard in Sweden. Not completely devoid of error of course, but I always pay attention to what they say.

So, it's real close now, that's for sure. Cautionary note however: KD, S and C typically do better in elections than in polls. M especially and the others to some extent are reversed.

[Gustaf]

Oh, and regarding the euro poll it's interesting and probably due to the recent fall of the krona. It should be noted though that there has been no serious debate on the issue since the referendum and opinions on European issues tend to be very volatile because of that. When the referendum was held in Sweden the yes-side started out with 6-8% lead and after a 10-month campaign where they had a 10-to-1 spending advantage as well as every major newspaper, every major party and every major organization on their side they lost by 14%. France's referendum on the EU-constitution was similar; the yes-side started with 70% and then dropped to 45% on election day. I believe the reverse has happened as well (like in Sweden's EU-referendum).

Generally, polls on European issues should be treated with even more caution than ordinary polls.