NY-20 Final Predictions

[PGSable]

Murphy 51.25%
Tedisco 48.75%

I'm feeling less optimistic...

Tedisco 50.75%
Murphy 49.25%

[Brittain33]

Murphy, 54%-46%.

[Nhoj]

A one point win to either Murphy or Tedisco.

[Mr.Phips]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

This isn't 1935, rather it's more like 1930 where 1929 was in the opposite parties' hands.  Which makes everything a bit more confusing.

But I think we probably agree on the general points, yes.

1929 was not like 2008.  The economy was clearly in trouble starting in 2007 and that was when the recession started.  It wasnt like the economy "suddenly" got bad in September 2008 like in 1929. 

[Brittain33]

1929 was not like 2008.  The economy was clearly in trouble starting in 2007 and that was when the recession started.  It wasnt like the economy "suddenly" got bad in September 2008 like in 1929. 

Well, the economy didn't really "suddenly" go bad in 1929, despite the Crash. There was a steady decline in the economy through early 1933. Hoover saying that prosperity was right 'round the corner wasn't unreasonable in 1930, and it was the continuing rise in unemployment and business failures that made him look laughable as held to that line.

The closest analogue to a summer '08 would be spring of '33 when bank failures began to get serious.

[minionofmidas]

1929 was not like 2008.  The economy was clearly in trouble starting in 2007 and that was when the recession started.  It wasnt like the economy "suddenly" got bad in September 2008 like in 1929. 

Well, the economy didn't really "suddenly" go bad in 1929, despite the Crash. There was a steady decline in the economy through early 1933. Hoover saying that prosperity was right 'round the corner wasn't unreasonable in 1930, and it was the continuing rise in unemployment and business failures that made him look laughable as held to that line.

The closest analogue to a summer '08 would be spring of '33 when bank failures began to get serious.

More to the point, the economy didn't "suddenly" go bad in 1929 - the warning signs that the short 20s boom was over had been accumulating for more than a year by then. The NY stock market, too, had been falling for several months before the crash.

[Eraserhead]

Murphy - 51.88614%
Tedisco - 48.11386%

Tedisco is a loser with a sh**tty haircut.  Murphy is just a fag who can't smile.  Murphy wins.  The media will hail the special election as a victory for Obama and a vote of confidence on the stimulus, when in fact the race will be lost because Tedisco is a horrible candidate.

Fact of the matter is Murphy picked up steam when this became a race between an Obama Democrat and a National Republican rather than a local race between Murphy and Tedisco....

That also made the race more interesting to watch because let's face it, both of these guys are pretty damn boring.

[Brittain33]

That also made the race more interesting to watch because let's face it, both of these guys are pretty damn boring.

You don't find Tedisco a little entertaining? Murphy is boring as all hell, for sure.

[Eraserhead]

I believe I should add a couple of points to my non-prediction.

First off, I will predict special elections, for now, if they occur in "the South", because those races, so long as Obama is in the White House, will be quite predictable.  Other races don't have that air of predictability as of yet.

Second, Republicans would be much better off long-term if they lost today.  I don't feel as if a bottom is in yet.

Oh really? I guess I'd better vote for Tedisco then.

[Eraserhead]

That also made the race more interesting to watch because let's face it, both of these guys are pretty damn boring.

You don't find Tedisco a little entertaining? Murphy is boring as all hell, for sure.

True, Tedisco can be kind of amusing... but only when he feels the need to make a new gaffe.

[Sam Spade]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

This isn't 1935, rather it's more like 1930 where 1929 was in the opposite parties' hands.  Which makes everything a bit more confusing.

But I think we probably agree on the general points, yes.

1929 was not like 2008.  The economy was clearly in trouble starting in 2007 and that was when the recession started.  It wasnt like the economy "suddenly" got bad in September 2008 like in 1929. 

Echoing what the above posters said - the economy did not just collapse in 1929 - warning signs were already apparent.  For example, the housing market clearly topped in mid-1928 (housing market crashes usually presage these types of events).

I believe in our present case, the housing market topped in mid-2006 or so.  Which means the Fed's actions prolonged the catastrophic crash for about a year or so (which sounds about right in my book).

The point that I'm making is much broader - when the history books are written, historians will now doubt place *the crash* as the collapse of Lehman Bros. in September 2008.  That is our October 1929 in my book (I know others will disagree with my characterization) simply because similar events (e.g. the massive flight to bonds) occurred during both events.

Timescales can be affected by government intervention, but in the end the strictures of the market will win out.  Simply put, keep your eye on the big picture! 

Anyway, I'm ending my own personal threadjack here right now...

[minionofmidas]

My Prediction

Tedisco 50%
Murphy 50%

I say this for several reasons. First I am just too unsure to commit to either one of them. Second I beleive this will be extremely close. Thirdly I think it would be absolutely hilarious to have a second Minnesota in the less then a year.

You might yet lose to Bacon King, but for now you're ahead.

[Brittain33]

Murphy, 54%-46%.

Damn it. I did this a day or two before Election Day last year, too, looking at the polls and the general mood and pricing in extra "momentum" points that would have given Obama states like Georgia. I hope I get better about this in the future.

[Eraserhead]

Murphy- 50.3%
Tedisco- 49.7%

I wish I was less specific and just put "50%-50%".

[Lunar]

OMFG HERE ARE STEELE'S COMMENTS WHUH WHUH WHOAAAAAAH

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[Eraserhead]

OMFG HERE ARE STEELE'S COMMENTS WHUH WHUH WHOAAAAAAH

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uhh... so are they going to fire this guy yet or what?

[Lunar]

that was never going to happen.  you need a two thirds vote to fire him and the next in line is a South Carolinan, whites-only country club, got-into-politics-because-he-hated-being-forced-to-school-with-black-kids (busing)  type.  Wouldn't look good to replace Steele with Dawson, yaddamean?  And the votes just never existed to oust him.

[Eraserhead]

That's too bad... for Republicans.

[Bacon King]

Tedisco 49.83
Murphy 50.17

lol

[Eraserhead]

Tedisco 49.83
Murphy 50.17

lol

YOU BE DA MANN

[Zarn]

You cannot claim the crown just yet, Bacon.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My Prediction

Tedisco 50%
Murphy 50%

I say this for several reasons. First I am just too unsure to commit to either one of them. Second I beleive this will be extremely close. Thirdly I think it would be absolutely hilarious to have a second Minnesota in the less then a year.

You might yet lose to Bacon King, but for now you're ahead.

I shall count myself extremely lucky b/c when I made this prediction back on Monday I was beginning to think the margin would be wider. Good thing I went with my instincts.

I doubt the margin will stay same and I haven o problem if BaconKing turns out to be closer in the the end. But that "crown does sound appealing" . 

[Bacon King]

Tedisco 49.83
Murphy 50.17

lol

For the record, the final percentage:

Tedisco: 49.88%
Murphy: 50.12%


BAM

[Associate Justice PiT]

Tedisco 49.83
Murphy 50.17

lol

For the record, the final percentage:

Tedisco: 49.88%
Murphy: 50.12%


BAM

     Good job!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The final results are 80,833 - 80,107. 50.23 - 49.77 for Murphy. Who had a prediction that was closest to that? Well, hmm...

50.22 Murphy - 49.78 Tedisco

Oh hell yeah.