NY Redistricting, 2010

[Verily]

I've begun a remap of New York based on the 2008 county data. The first plan was to split NY into "upstate" (north of New York City) and downstate (New York City and Long Island). For upstate, it was feasible to work off of county data, but downstate every county except Richmond is large enough for multiple districts and no data for population lower jurisdictions than the county level is available.

I extrapolated the 2010 populations for this based on the growth rates in the 2007-2008 period, using a compounded formula. But I doubt using a compounded formula made any serious difference.

All districts are within 1.7% of the ideal. (The Syracuse district is 1.7% oversized; all others are within 1% of the ideal.) Only five counties had to be split upstate, three of which were too large for a single district by themselves. (Erie, Monroe and Westchester were too large for a single district; Orange and Albany also had to be split--the Albany split was avoidable but would have made things very messy.)

I've finished the 12 upstate districts; there are 16 districts in New York City and Long Island (plus one "upstate" district which is mostly Westchester with a bit of the Bronx). Those can't be designed until the results of the 2010 Census are published.

Results by district for the 2008 Presidential election are below. (Districts are numbered, counting down, from west to east and from north to south; NY-1 through NY-16 would be in NYC and Long Island.)

Enjoy.

[Verily]

Note that these numbers assume that split counties have equal partisanship in their constituent parts. This obviously is not actually the case, so the estimates are likely to be slightly off.

NY-28 (Buffalo South and Erie): 55.9% Obama
NY-27 (Buffalo North and Niagara): 55.6% Obama
NY-26 (Southern Tier): 55.1% McCain
NY-25 (Rochester): 59.0% Obama
NY-24 (Ithaca, Utica and Binghamton): 53.7% Obama
NY-23 (Syracuse): 57.4% Obama
NY-22 (Adirondacks): 52.3% Obama
NY-21 (Albany East and Schenectady): 56.0% Obama
NY-20 (Albany West and Kingston): 57.4% Obama
NY-19 (Poughkeepsie): 56.5% Obama
NY-18 (Orange and Rockland): 54.8% Obama
NY-17 (Westchester): 67.0% Obama

[Brittain33]

That is a very good map. I expect a modified version of the LaFalce district to make its return in 2012, and you did away with the Hinchey monstrosity in a sensible way.

[Verily]

I just tried to make a slightly better map which would combine Syracuse and Utica while having the rural areas all combined with Ithaca and Binghamton. Didn't work too well, though, since Madison County separates Syracuse (Onondaga County) and Utica (Oneida County). It would work if you split Onondaga County and would probably be a better map for keeping communities together.

[Verily]

That is a very good map. I expect a modified version of the LaFalce district to make its return in 2012, and you did away with the Hinchey monstrosity in a sensible way.

I'm not sure where Lee lives, whether he'd end up in NY-27 or NY-26. But NY-26 should be reasonably solid for the Republicans now.

Edit: Apparently Lee lives in Erie County, in Clarence. So he'd be drawn out of his district by this map, but he could easily move into Genesee or Wyoming County.

Higgins is less safe in his new district but is very popular in any case and should easily win reelection. Slaughter is obviously no longer in an ultra-safe district, but I think she would end up in the still quite safe Rochester district rather than the north Buffalo district which approximates her current district (but much more competitive, also still favoring the Democrats considerably at D+3--Lee might run there, but he'd have a tough time, easier to move into the R+8 district to the south).

McHugh is basically the same. His district shifts marginally from R+0 to D+0, but it may have done that anyway from the trends in 2008.

Arcuri is made safer by this districting, although his district is still marginal--up to D+1 from R+1 since it takes in Ithaca proper now but loses some Democratic areas at the western edge. Maffei is also a bit safer in a D+5 district, up from D+3. John Hall gets a considerably safer district, up to D+4 from R+1. Hinchey is slightly less safe, down to D+5 from D+6, same for Tonko, who falls from D+9 to D+4.

Gillibrand's former district disappears, although its new incumbent would probably challenge Tonko in either the primary or the general. The new district has a lot of Gillibrand's old district east of Albany, and Tonko loses a fair amount of his district to the west to Hinchey's new district.

Engel is drawn out of his district and into Lowey's, and the new version of his district is only D+2, down all the way from D+21. That's probably the most controversial part of this re-map. (Lowey is up from D+10 to D+15.) Depending on how the districts were drawn, though, Engel could get his sliver of the Bronx and a smaller bit of Westchester put in with Rockland and Orange, which would both make his district much safer and put him back in the district. I preferred drawing the map this way, but "fixing" it would be simple.