MO-2010/Wilson Research Strategies (R): Carnahan (D) leads Blunt & Steelman (R)

[Tender Branson]

Robin Carnahan (D): 47%
Roy Blunt (R): 44%

Robin Carnahan (D): 47%
Sarah Steelman (R): 39%

The survey also measured support for Blunt and Steelman after a biography was read to respondents about each candidate. A significant portion of the information given to the voter was negative, in order to test arguments against a candidate.

Wilson said Blunt's paragraph included information about his vote for the original fall financial bailout, his support for earmarks and his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Wilson said after measuring "informed voters," Blunt loses almost half of his support from soft Republicans and drops nearly 20 points among independents. Without access to the full paragraph, it's impossible to gauge the fairness of the wording.

"INFORMED VOTERS":

Robin Carnahan (D): 55%
Roy Blunt (R): 30%

Wilson said that "voters are particularly angered when they learn of Blunt's involvement with Jack Abramoff, and that he was one of the largest recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac campaign contributions."

"The same negatives will hurt Blunt in the Republican primary, where after voters hear this information, he trails Sarah Steelman by more than 20 points," according to the report on the poll.

The poll, taken by Republican pollster Wilson Research Strategies between March 7-9, surveyed 600 likely voters in Missouri. It has a margin of error of 4 percent.

http://ky3.blogspot.com/2009/03/poll-pokes-at-blunts-negatives-in.html

[Rowan]

Looks like this is Steelman's internal, trying to figure out what will work against Blunt in the primary.

[Brittain33]

Safe Republican.

(first of the 2010 cycle!)

[Holmes]

Unless this is an internal, it's sad seeing a pollster give out negative information about a candidate...

But I'm still happy about the results.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Safe Republican.

(first of the 2010 cycle!)

Safe Republican?? You're kidding, right? This is one of the Democrats' best chances for a pickup in 2010. Yes, Missouri lost its bellwether status in November for just narrowly voting for McCain over Obama because of a massive turnout in Springfield and St. Charles and a lower turnout in St. Louis. We're sorry. But keep in mind that at the same time we elected Jay Nixon (D) Governor by almost 20 points and Democrats control all of our statewide elected offices except one. Missouri is not a red state, and we're not a blue state. We are what we have always been: a battleground/purple state.

Robin Carnahan is a formidable candidate and can and will defeat both Blunt and/or Steelman. Things to keep in mind:

1) Steelman is a perennial loser, and not even the Republican Party wants her. She lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Kenny Hulshof. She is the Democrats' secret weapon for bloodying up the Republican nominee so that (s)he is weakened when (s)he faces our candidate.

2) The Carnahan name carries a lot of weight in Missouri. Robin is the daughter of Mel Carnahan who was a very popular Governor of Missouri (he even carried my county which is a Republican stronghold in Southeast Missouri). In November she won her second term to Secretary of State with 62 percent of the vote and 1.7 million votes, the most votes cast for a candidate in the state's history. (Yes, I realize running for Secretary of State, a statewide office, is not the same as running for the U.S. Senate, a federal office) Depending on the national mood, if it's another big Democratic year, you can expect Carnahan to win by over 5 points. If it's a good year for Republicans, she will still win but it will be much closer (like her election to Secretary of State in 2004).

3) Roy Blunt is related to disgraced ex-Governor Matt Blunt (R), who had the lowest approval ratings of any Governor in the country (save for ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R-Kentucky). The Blunt name won't resonate too well with Independents in the state who will undoubtedly decide the election like they always do in Missouri.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, he was kidding.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like this is Steelman's internal, trying to figure out what will work against Blunt in the primary.

Pollster.com notes that it's indeed an internal for Steelman.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mo_2010_senate_wilson_resr_379.php