Gay Marriage/Civil Unions in 10 years

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What states will have gay marriage and civil unions in 10 years?

Here's my map. Red = gay marriage, blue = civil unions, gray = neither:

Vermont and New Jersey might have gay marriage too, but there might be less of a push for it due to them currently have civil unions.

[jamestroll]

I think states like OH and IN may suprise people..

[Smash255]

Vermont is in the middle of pushing for gay marriage. 

[Sbane]

NH will probably have gay marriage and MT will at least have civil unions. Same with OH,IN and MO.

[ilikeverin]

Vermont is in the middle of pushing for gay marriage. 

Well, so is Minnesota, but that doesn't mean it will happen

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What states will have gay marriage and civil unions in 10 years?

Here's my map. Red = gay marriage, blue = civil unions, gray = neither:

Vermont and New Jersey might have gay marriage too, but there might be less of a push for it due to them currently have civil unions.

No way in hell will Virginia be getting anything in the next 10 years, not without a repeal of the constitutional amendment banning anything with the word "gay" in it.

And considering it's been 10 years since Vermont became the first state to authorize civil unions (due to a court ruling), I don't think there will be a tidal wave of progress in the area of gay rights that you predict. Maybe six or seven states will add civil unions, one or two for marriage if their courts make them.

[Holmes]

I'm a big follower of marriage equality in the US and I'm really up to date. 10 years is a looooooong time, but if I were to guess what it'd look like...

Red = marriage, blue = civil unions, green = domestic partnership, grey = banned or other

I was on the fence with North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia, so if they look weird, I understand, but I think they'll be more accepting of gay people by then enough to give domestic partnerships. 10 years. I dunno.

New York was supposed to get it this year, but sh**t happened. It'll happen next year or in 2 year the latest. Vermont and Maine will get it by the end of the year, New Hampshire's looking not bad, New Jersey was promised by Corzine and the legislature, and Iowa is in court right now(the arguments were in December) - people say they're optimistic so I guess I am too, but I don't know anything about Iowa's supreme court, so. Washington is getting it this year without the name, so just wait for it. It had a hearing in Maryland the other week and got a lot of support, from civil rights leader to Wayne Gilchrest. But Maryland's session for this year ends soon, I'm not expecting it this year. Rhode Island also had a hearing but Donald Carcieri.

Hawaii and Illinois should have civil unions by the end of the year, unless some freak accident happens. Then it's only a matter of time. Also, Florida is debating a domestic partnership bill right now. It'd be great if it passed, but it'd also be a miracle. Don't expect much. I just hope the homosexual protection bill passes.

It's not crazy to think that most states that have protection to gay people will upgrade to at least domestic partnerships in the next 10 years.

Oh, and Minnesota's bill. Even if it passes this year, it won't be signed into law until at least 2011. People who expect Pawlenty to sign it are just... way too optimistic in my opinion.

edit: If you want my uneducated guess, I would say that most states that have it allowed in my map will get it passed relatively quickly, then not much will happen on the marriage front, but more states will allow domestic partnerships or civil unions. I guess I'm predicting a cycle.

[JSojourner]

I hope all 50 have marriage.  But I know it won't happen.  <sigh>

[Holmes]

I hope all 50 have marriage.  But I know it won't happen.  <sigh>

Unless Scalia has a heart attack. It won't happen.

Besides, at this point in time, I'd be afraid for a gay couple's safety to get married in a place like Utah or Alabama...

[Brittain33]

Vermont is in the middle of pushing for gay marriage. 

Well, so is Minnesota, but that doesn't mean it will happen

Lots of states have bills in the hopper. Some are more quixotic than others. Vermont's Senate (or a Senate committee; big distinction, I know) just passed a gay marriage bill. That's a huge step that is not going to happen in Minnesota this year.

[Brittain33]

New York was supposed to get it this year, but sh**t happened. It'll happen next year or in 2 year the latest.

New York is going to happen when the Democratic Senate majority grows and consolidates. I don't think it was ever realistic to expect it with a 32-30 Senate, but given some more Republican retirements and defeats, it will move through. So I'm hoping for 2011, especially because they will have either a new Democratic governor or an incumbent who owes a lot of favors to the gay mafia.

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Vermont maybe, but is there momentum in Maine? I think the bill was just introduced for the first time. I can't see it happening in the first session. Maine is not a state at the social vanguard.

[Holmes]

Haha, is there a gay mafia in New York?

Vermont's senate is gonna pass the gay marriage bill later today. It should get at least 25 votes out of 30. As for Maine, the bill got over 60 co-sponsors. The max is 10, and 10 senators sponsored it first, followed by 50 representatives. There was one Republican senator who also co-sponsored, and she said that she knows of 2 Republican senator colleagues who will vote with her. The governor also sees the momentum - he went from being opposed to being "totally open to whatever happens"(paraphrasing).

[7,052,770]

Hopefully, the Supreme Court will at least rule that full faith and credit requires gay marriage licenses to be valid in all 50 states.  Then we'll essentially have it everywhere, and states can decide to start performing it themselves at their own pace.

[JSojourner]

I hope all 50 have marriage.  But I know it won't happen.  <sigh>

Unless Scalia has a heart attack. It won't happen.

Besides, at this point in time, I'd be afraid for a gay couple's safety to get married in a place like Utah or Alabama...

Good point.

I'd prefer Scalia got a heart in the first place, rather than suffering a heart attack.  ;-)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What states will have gay marriage and civil unions in 10 years?

Here's my map. Red = gay marriage, blue = civil unions, gray = neither:

Vermont and New Jersey might have gay marriage too, but there might be less of a push for it due to them currently have civil unions.

No way in hell will Virginia be getting anything in the next 10 years, not without a repeal of the constitutional amendment banning anything with the word "gay" in it.

And considering it's been 10 years since Vermont became the first state to authorize civil unions (due to a court ruling), I don't think there will be a tidal wave of progress in the area of gay rights that you predict. Maybe six or seven states will add civil unions, one or two for marriage if their courts make them.

Progress on this sort of thing usually snowballs. Look at the increase in acceptance in 10 years. Note how Prop 8 did compared to California's old proposition to ban gay marriage. Prop 8 wouldn't pass in 10 years, and will likely be repealed.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Red: homosexual unions are recognized as marriages
Gray: marriage is limited to heterosexuals, but other options (civil unions etc.) are recognized
Blue: no homosexual unions are recognized

[Brittain33]

Blue: no homosexual unions are recognized

New Hampshire already has civil unions.

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That's a somewhat inaccurate reading of current law. A photo from Rock Hudson's perfectly legal wedding:

[© tweed]

it's a matter of time before the SCOTUS mandates nationwide gay marriage.  it could happen within the next ten years if Obama is re-elected and there are a few timely deaths/incapacitations.

[Holmes]

Progress on this sort of thing usually snowballs. Look at the increase in acceptance in 10 years. Note how Prop 8 did compared to California's old proposition to ban gay marriage. Prop 8 wouldn't pass in 10 years, and will likely be repealed.

Are you talking about Virginia? The ban isn't going anywhere soon. Even Tim Kaine campaigned on anti-gay stuff. First move in the right direction for Virginia is to start electing accepting governors, no offence to Tim Kaine.

Also Vermont so could've allowed gay marriage years ago, probably after Massachussets, but they only decided to do it now thanks to Connecticut.

[Holmes]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

[RI]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

You beat me by two minutes.

[Holmes]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

You beat me by two minutes.

Did you watch the vote/debate? It was really great.

And I just wanna say, funny thing, 4 Republicans voted for this, as opposed to 3 who didn't. The majority of senate Republicans support marriage equality in Vermont.

[RI]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

You beat me by two minutes.

Did you watch the vote/debate? It was really great.

And I just wanna say, funny thing, 4 Republicans voted for this, as opposed to 3 who didn't. The majority of senate Republicans support marriage equality in Vermont.

Yeah, I was watching it over at Burlington Free Press.

The one Democrat who voted against this was Bobby Starr of Essex. What is it with people named Starr and being against gay marriage?

I only worry about what Douglas will do. Do the Dems have enough votes in the House to override a potential veto? Will the fact that the majority of Republicans in the Senate voted for the bill influence his decision?

[Smash255]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

You beat me by two minutes.

Did you watch the vote/debate? It was really great.

And I just wanna say, funny thing, 4 Republicans voted for this, as opposed to 3 who didn't. The majority of senate Republicans support marriage equality in Vermont.

Yeah, I was watching it over at Burlington Free Press.

The one Democrat who voted against this was Bobby Starr of Essex. What is it with people named Starr and being against gay marriage?

I only worry about what Douglas will do. Do the Dems have enough votes in the House to override a potential veto? Will the fact that the majority of Republicans in the Senate voted for the bill influence his decision?

The Dem majority in the House is just more than 2-1  (96-47) with 5 members of the Vermont Progressive Party, and 2 Independents.   Not sure what the support levels are at, but unless a higher % of Democrats are opposed to it than % of Republicans in favor of it, it would pass an override.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It should get at least 25 votes out of 30.

I just wanna say, that the bill just passed the state senate by a vote of 26 to 4. I was a little too conservative with my prediction.

You beat me by two minutes.

Did you watch the vote/debate? It was really great.

And I just wanna say, funny thing, 4 Republicans voted for this, as opposed to 3 who didn't. The majority of senate Republicans support marriage equality in Vermont.

Yeah, I was watching it over at Burlington Free Press.

The one Democrat who voted against this was Bobby Starr of Essex. What is it with people named Starr and being against gay marriage?

I only worry about what Douglas will do. Do the Dems have enough votes in the House to override a potential veto? Will the fact that the majority of Republicans in the Senate voted for the bill influence his decision?

Douglas has said that he opposes the bill, but he didn't say that he would veto it.
With margins like that, a veto would be futile, so it's highly unlikely that he will use it.

After all, it's not like he has presidential ambitions.