Slovak Presidential Elections, 21 March

[Bono]

The incumbent president, Ivan Gašparovič, is running again, supported by Smer, Slovak National Party and Movement for Democracy.

Other candidates are:
Iveta Radičová, candidate of the SDKÚ, supported by the SMK-MKP, the KDH and the "Civic Conservative Party".

Iveta Radičová: candidate of the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party, supported by the Party of the Hungarian Coalition, Christian Democratic Movement and Civic Conservative Party

František Mikloško: candidate of the Conservative Democrats of Slovakia

Zuzana Martináková: candidate of the Free Forum

Milan Melník: independent candidate supported by the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia

Milan Sidor: independent candidate supported by the Communist Party of Slovakia

Dagmar Bollová: independent candidate, former member of the Communist Party of Slovakia


The electoral commission has decided that to win the first round, a candidate must win not only a majority of votes, but a majority of eligible voters, which pretty much means that there will be a second round.

A poll from March 2009 saw the incumbent Gašparovič at 48.6%, Radičová at 33.3%, Martináková at 7.1 % and Mikloško at 5.5%, with all other candidates below 3%.

[Tender Branson]

A poll from March 2009 saw the incumbent Gašparovič at 48.6%, Radičová at 33.3%, Martináková at 7.1 % and Mikloško at 5.5%, with all other candidates below 3%.

Last poll I saw had Gašparovič beating Radičová by 57-43 in the second round.

Turnout also seems to be higher than anticipated: 50-60%

Exit Polls at 10pm and results incl. maps here:

http://volby.sme.sk/c/4287232/interaktivne-vsetky-vysledky-vsetkych-volieb-prezidenta.html?link=http%3A%2F%2Fvolby.sme.sk%2Fc%2F4287232%2Finteraktivne-vsetky-vysledky-vsetkych-volieb-prezidenta.html&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvolby.sme.sk%2Fc%2F4287232%2Finteraktivne-vsetky-vysledky-vsetkych-volieb-prezidenta.html

[Hash]

I support Martináková, and I'll support Radičová in the runoff against an HP like Gašparovič supported by horrible parties.

[Franzl]

I support Martináková, and I'll support Radičová in the runoff against an HP like Gašparovič supported by horrible parties.

agreed completely

[MaxQue]

I support Martináková, and I'll support Radičová in the runoff against an HP like Gašparovič supported by horrible parties.

agreed completely

Thirded

[Tender Branson]

Results:

Ivan Gašparovič: 876 061 votes (46.7%) -> Runoff
Iveta Radičová: 713 735 votes (38.1%) -> Runoff

František Mikloško: 101 573 votes (5.4%)
Zuzana Martináková: 96 035 votes (5.1%)
Milan Melník: 45 985 votes (2.5%)
Dagmara Bollová: 21 378 votes (1.1%)
Milan Sidor: 20 862 votes (1.1%)

Total votes cast: 1 875 629 valid votes (Turnout: 43.63%)

[Hash]

Map



Radičová's voter base is probably majority Hungarian.

[Franzl]

incredibly polarized.

[Hash]

incredibly polarized.

Radičová is the Hungarian areas + Bratislava. Banská Bystrica, that blue county in the centre is weird. But she only won it by a very thin margin. Of Radičová's victories, only 5 of the 14 counties she won did not vote for the MKP (Hungarian Coalition) in 2006.

[Tender Branson]

What caused the turnaround in Bratislava ?

In 2004, Gasparovic won the capital by 60-40.

Now he lost it 30-55 ...

[Hash]

What caused the turnaround in Bratislava ?

In 2004, Gasparovic won the capital by 60-40.

Now he lost it 30-55 ...

Look at who was the other candidate in 2004...

Gašparovič got 75% in Bratislava in the runoff. But look at the first round figures in 2004.

[Tender Branson]

What caused the turnaround in Bratislava ?

In 2004, Gasparovic won the capital by 60-40.

Now he lost it 30-55 ...

Look at who was the other candidate in 2004...

Gašparovič got 75% in Bratislava in the runoff. But look at the first round figures in 2004.

Ahh. The 60-40 was the national result ...

It will be interesting to see if Gasparovic will win Bratislava in the second round.

But probably he won't ...

[Hash]

What caused the turnaround in Bratislava ?

In 2004, Gasparovic won the capital by 60-40.

Now he lost it 30-55 ...

Look at who was the other candidate in 2004...

Gašparovič got 75% in Bratislava in the runoff. But look at the first round figures in 2004.

Ahh. The 60-40 was the national result ...

It will be interesting to see if Gasparovic will win Bratislava in the second round.

But probably he won't ...

Gašparovič will not win Bratislava in the runoff.

[ottermax]

Gasparovic seems like an opportunist to me, but it would be nice to hear more insight as to why he maintains such popularity.

It would be really cool to see a woman president in Slovakia.

[Hash]

Gasparovic seems like an opportunist to me, but it would be nice to hear more insight as to why he maintains such popularity.

It would be really cool to see a woman president in Slovakia.

He's popular since he apparently taken a hands-off stance on Slovak politics and a non-confrontational approach. This changes from the violent feud between Vladimír Mečiar and the President, Michal Kováč when Mečiar was in power. Ironically, both Mečiar and Kováč were from the same party.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When will the runoff be held?

[Hash]

April 4.

[Tender Branson]

April 4.

Bump !

Any predictions ?

51.4% Gasparovic
48.6% Radicova

BTW, is the internet publishing company for Obama's White House also responsible for creating Radicova's campaign homepage ?

http://www.whitehouse.gov

http://www.radicova.sk

[Hash]

I think Melník endorsed Radicova. That's quite a surprise, considering that Melník's authoritarian bastards are the third party in the ruling coalition.

Gasparovic probably wins something like 52-48 or 53-47. Sadly. Slovakia loves electing beyond awful governments.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 3 minutes, don't know if there are exit polls ...

[Tender Branson]

1 precinct out of 5919 reporting:

Iveta Radičová    80 votes
Ivan Gašparovič     47 votes

[Hash]

Any site to follow this on?

[Tender Branson]

Any site to follow this on?

Yepp:

http://www.volbysr.sk/vpsr09/obvodPV000.html

[Tender Branson]

I even got live Slovak televison coverage:

mms://stvstream.m3.livetv.sk/stv1live/

[Tender Branson]

17 precincts in, Gasparovic leads 61%-39%.