I must admit...

[Psychic Octopus]

In March-June of this year, I thought the Junior Senator from Illinois had no chance. I expected a 1988-esque (not by EV and PV, but seeing Obama lead in most polls and then slowly watch his numbers fade away) victory for the Maverick.

This was my Map in March:

McCain/Palin  340
Obama/Dodd 198

(McCain would have very narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and New Hampshire)

Slowly and surely, my idea faded away, and in August and Early September I was calculating this for McCain:

McCain/Palin: 273
Obama/Biden: 265


Boy I was wrong and I wish I was right!

[Sbane]

Yes I do believe in August and early September they were basically tied. I agree with your second map except for Colorado. Actually if this election had been a tie that would have been the map with Obama winning 278 EV's and VA being right at 50-50( but probably won by Mccain). Your first map was always a fantasy and an indication that you had no clue as to what the national mood was. For example Dukakis would have won in 2008 .

[Landslide Lyndon]

In order to have a generally good grasp of where a presidential election is headed, I recommend Alan Lichtman's system, ''The Keys to the Presidency''. It has predicted the PV winner correctly in every election after the Civil War.

If you have followed it, then you would have seen that this was the worst environment for an incumbent party since 1932. Subsequently any dreams about McCain winning, let alone in a landslide, were just that. Dreams.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In March-June of this year, I thought the Junior Senator from Illinois had no chance. I expected a 1988-esque (not by EV and PV, but seeing Obama lead in most polls and then slowly watch his numbers fade away) victory for the Maverick.

This was my Map in March:

McCain/Palin  340
Obama/Dodd 198

(McCain would have very narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and New Hampshire)

Slowly and surely, my idea faded away, and in August and Early September I was calculating this for McCain:

McCain/Palin: 273
Obama/Biden: 265


Boy I was wrong and I wish I was right!

Ah, these Republicans...

[Psychic Octopus]

I don't see the idea that Obama was destined to win Virginia; surely it would have been closer the '04, but I thought he would win by 5% in August.

[Sbane]

Obama was not destined to win Virginia. It was in fact the exact midpoint of the election. If this election had been tied Virginia would have been like Florida 2000. Of course it wouldn't have mattered because Obama would have won CO and IA by narrow but indisputable margins.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I never got the notion that McCain had any realistic chance at winning Nevada. I gave it up for dead long before giving up any other Bush 2004 state except Iowa.

[Sbane]

Oh yeah I forgot Nevada. That would have flipped even if Obama had lost the popular vote. Hopefully the republicans are realizing just how important the latino vote is.