Australia Decides 1993: Bob Hawke (ALP) vs. John Hewson (LIB)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

On December 19, 1991, former Treasurer Paul Keating, albeit narrowly, finally ousted Prime Minister Bob Hawke to become leader of the federal Labor Party, and consequently became Australia's 24th Prime Minister. However, let's assume that Bob Hawke, to the dismay of fellow Labor colleagues won that crucial ballot which concluded a lifelong career in the Australian labour movement.

Coming into the 1993 election, held on March 13, the Hawke Government was losing popularity at an immense pace, similar in regard to the RL Keating Government. The combination of high unemployment (which had rose to a staggering 11%, its highest level since the Great Depression), infighting amongst caucus due to Hawke's incompetence and to a lesser extent ten years of Labor rule it had its toll on the electorate, who were now flocking to the Liberals, led by GST advocate John Hewson.

How would this Hawke/Hewson match up occur in March 1993? Would Hawke be able to pull a metaphorical "rabbit out of the hat", similar to what Paul Keating did in RL 1993 or would the John Hewson Liberals, as predicted and expected by many lead them back to power? Discuss.

[Smid]

In the RL race, Keating was doing exceptionally poorly and the election was being dubbed "the unloseable election" for the Liberals. The Liberals obviously did lose the election, and the point it was lost was John Hewson's infamous birthday cake debacle, while trying to explain how the GST would be imposed on a purchased birthday cake.

The election was the Liberal Party's to lose, not Labor's to win and John Hewson scared the electorate with the GST to the point that they couldn't bring themselves to vote for him.

Unless Hewson gave a different answer or the media didn't ask him the question about the birthday cake, I don't see this election playing out any differently to the 1993 election against Keating.

[CCA]

Well, from the admittedly narrow reading I've done and the Keating! Musical I've watched, it seems to me that Hawke's government was losing steam and unable to come up with an effective response to Fightback!

Keating!'s strong response promted Hewson to launch Fightback II, the original Fightback had GST on EVERYTHING, arguably, without Keating's strong responese. Fightback II never gets launched and Hewson doesnt look foolish as the cake incident would never have occured.

My 2c anywau

[Smid]

Keating!'s strong response promted Hewson to launch Fightback II, the original Fightback had GST on EVERYTHING, arguably, without Keating's strong responese. Fightback II never gets launched and Hewson doesnt look foolish as the cake incident would never have occured.

Very good point and probably actually what would have happened.

[CCA]

So do we agree that a Hawke vs Hewson campaign in 1991 is a bloodbath for Labour?

Will Keating finally roll Hawke after the election?

[Smid]

So do we agree that a Hawke vs Hewson campaign in 1991 is a bloodbath for Labour?

Will Keating finally roll Hawke after the election?

Bloodbath, yes. I contemplated for a while as to whether to say it would be of a 1996 magnitude. It's possible that some of the size of the 1996 swing was caused by Labor being in power for so long... three years earlier, that was probably the case but slightly less so. There were seats that Labor lost (such as Kevin Rudd in his first run for Griffith, and a one-term Wayne Swan in Lilley, Minister Con Sciacca in Bowman and Attorney-General Michael Lavarch in Dickson) - Labor was reduced to just two electorates in Queensland, Minister Arch Bevis just managed to hang on in Brisbane, there were a lot of seats that Labor shouldn't have lost that they did still lose in Queensland. It's possible that a very large Liberal win in 1993 may have been at that sort of a level, but I just couldn't say.