France, 2002 : Jospin qualified for the 2nd round

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would he have won against Chirac ? What would the departements map look like ?
Discuss.

Here is my map for the 2nd round :



Jospin : 51%
Chirac : 49%
( grey = close departements, winner between 50 and 52,5% )

[big bad fab]

Don't be so sure of Ardennes.

Jospin would have won Val-de-Marne without any problem. And Essonne.
And Eure if you think he would have won Calvados.

And Chirac would of course have won Marne, Haute-Marne, Vosges, Jura, Doubs, Yonne, Meuse, Moselle, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris !

[Hash]

I assume Chirac would have performed better than Sarkozy did out west, in regions like Bretagne, Poitou, Limousin (obviously), parts of Aquitaine, and parts of IdF. He would have done worse than Sarkozy out east, in places like Alsace, Picardie, Champagne, Lorraine, or NPdC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I used a compilation of 1995 and 2007 electoral maps, giving a little advantage to Jospin because of the right trends of these two maps.

[Hash]

I used a compilation of 1995 and 2007 electoral maps, giving a little advantage to Jospin because of the right trends of these two maps.

You need to remember that Chirac and Sarkozy were two quite different candidates with, in some cases, very different regional appeals. Have a look at a swing or trend map from 1995 to 2007 and you'll see my point.

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy = Chirac + Le Pen - Pompidou

not entirely true, but, at least, it's simple to write !