South Africa 2009

[ag]

Well, fingers crossed that the DA/ID government in Western Cape will show South Africa why voting mindlessly for the ANC is a bad idea.

It's going to be DA/COPE/ID gov't. DA will, probably, get an outright majority in Western Cape, but they want a consolidation in the opposition, so they'd like to share the office. Nationwide, a 1.5 party system seems to be emerging.

[ag]

And here is Kwazulu-Natal PROVINCIAL tally (once again, at the provincial level ANC is slightly worse off than at the national; change from 2004 in brackets):

ANC 61.01% (+14.04%)
IFP 23.34% (-13.47%)
DA 9.49% (+1.15%)
MF 2.74% (+0.14%)
COPE 1.08% (+1.08%)
ACDP 0.69% (-1.09%)
UDM 0.27% (-0.47%)

[minionofmidas]

These are nat'l figures.

W Cape DA 48.7, ANC 31.2, COPE 9.2, ID 6.3, ACDP 1.5, VF+ 1.2
N Cape ANC 60.0, COPE 16.6, DA 13.0, ID 5.5, VF+ 1.4
E Cape ANC 70.1, COPE 12.9, DA 10.1, UDM 4.0
KZN ANC 63.8, IFP 22.0, DA 9.5, COPE 1.2
Free State ANC 75.0, DA 10.4, COPE 9.8, VF+ 1.6
NW ANC 74.3, DA 8.9, COPE 8.3, UCDP 3.4, VF+ 1.5
Gauteng ANC 62.1, DA 24.8, COPE 7.1, VF+ 1.6, IFP 1.0
Mpumalanga ANC 84.8, DA 8.5, COPE 2.8
Limpopo ANC 85.8, COPE 6.9, DA 3.5

[ag]

The interesting thing is the change from 2004:

1. W Cape DA 48.7 (+18.8 ), ANC 31.2 (-15.1), COPE 9.2(+9.2), ID 6.3 (-1.7), ACDP 1.5(-2.3), VF+ 1.2 (nil)

2. N Cape ANC 60.0 (-8.8 ), COPE 16.6 (+16.6), DA 13.0 (+1.9), ID 5.5 (-1.1), VF+ 1.4 (-0.1)

3. E Cape ANC 70.1 (-9.2), COPE 12.9 (+12.9), DA 10.1 (+2.8 ), UDM 4.0 (-4.9)

4. KZN ANC 63.8 (+16.3), IFP 22.0 (-12.9), DA 9.5 (-0.5), COPE 1.2 (+1.2)

5. Free State ANC 75.0 (-7.0), DA 10.4 (+1.5), COPE 9.8 (+9.8 ), VF+ 1.6 (-0.5)

6. NW ANC 74.3 (-7.7), DA 8.9 (nil), COPE 8.3 (+8.3), UCDP 3.4 (-3.1), VF+ 1.5 (+0.4)

7. Gauteng ANC 62.1 (-6.6), DA 24.8 (+4.5), COPE 7.1 (+7.1), VF+ 1.6 (+0.4), IFP 1.0 (-1.6)

8. Mpumalanga ANC 84.8 (-1.5) , DA 8.5 (+1.3) , COPE 2.8 (+2.

9. Limpopo ANC 85.8 (-3.9), COPE 6.9 (+6.9), DA 3.5 (-0.3)

If these results hold, they are, actually, quite good for the major opposition parties, other than the IFP. Outside the Zulu heartland, where ANC nominating a Zulu has changed everything, ANC has stepped back accross the board (of course, assuming these results indeed stand).

[ag]

More votes get in, and it's looking better and better for ANC (in brackets change from 2004):

ANC 66.79% (-2.92%)
DA 16.14% (+3.77%)
COPE 7.71% (+7.71%)
IFP 3.62% (- 3.35%)
UDM 1.05% (-1.23%)
ID 1.02% (-0.68%)
FF+ 0.90% (+0.03%)
ACDP 0.76% (-0.84%)

W Cape national:

DA 49.04
ANC 31.91
COPE 9.06
ID 5.47
ACDP 1.55
FF+ 1.21
UDM 0.67

[ottermax]

Zuma's Zulu ancestry really helped the ANC. But it looks like the opposition parties gained from the ANC elsewhere, so the ANC cannot totally dominate.

Clearly COPE went nowhere, but they got a whole lot of votes in No. Cape. Plus, the UDM should merge with COPE in someway for the next election.

[Hash]

Plus, the UDM should merge with COPE in someway for the next election.

Why? The UDM and COPE share little or nothing.

[ottermax]

Plus, the UDM should merge with COPE in someway for the next election.

Why? The UDM and COPE share little or nothing.

That's true, but it looks like COPE took a lot of votes away from the UDM in Eastern Cape.

[Hash]

Plus, the UDM should merge with COPE in someway for the next election.

Why? The UDM and COPE share little or nothing.

That's true, but it looks like COPE took a lot of votes away from the UDM in Eastern Cape.

...

Doesn't mean they'll merge. I doubt the UDM has any interest in merging with crooks.

[ag]

The interesting race here was that for the role of the official opposition (oh, the joys of the parliamentary politics).  By province this role will now belong to:

Western Cape - ANC (previously, DA, which is now the gov't)
Northern Cape - COPE (previously, DA)
Eastern Cape - COPE (previously, UDM)
Free State - COPE or DA (very close to call, before it was DA)
Kwazulu-Natal - IFP (as before)
Gauteng - DA (as before)
North-West - COPE or DA (previously, UCDP)
Mpumalanga - DA (as before)
Limpopo - COPE (previously, DA)

[ag]

Parties w/ over 5% vote share in the provincial elections:

W Cape: DA, ANC, COPE, ID (in 2004: ANC, DA, NNP, ID) (in 1999: ANC, NNP, DP) (in 1994: NP, ANC, DP)

N Cape: ANC, COPE, DA, ID (in 2004: ANC, DA, NNP, ID) (in 1999: ANC, NNP, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

E Cape: ANC, COPE, DA (in 2004: ANC, UDM, DA) (in 1999: ANC, UDM, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP)

Free State: ANC, COPE, DA (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999 ANC, DP, NNP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

North-West: ANC, COPE, DA, UCDP (in 2004: ANC, UCDP) (in 1999: ANC, UCDP) (in 1994: ANC, NP)

Kwazulu-Natal: ANC, IFP, DA (in 2004: ANC, IFP, DA) (in 1999: IFP, ANC, DP) (in 1994: IFP, ANC, NP)

Gauteng: ANC, DA, COPE (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999: ANC, DP) (in 1999: ANC, DP) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF, DP)

Mpumalanga: ANC, DA (in 2004: ANC, DA) (in 1999: ANC) (in 1994: ANC, NP, VV-FF)

Limpopo: ANC, COPE (in 2004: ANC) (in 1999: ANC) (in 1994: ANC)

Two obervations:

1. COPE did pretty well in puting itself up accross the country. For the first time an opposition took over 5% in Limpopo!
 
2. I actually like the overtime partisan dynamics.

[ag]

Eastern Cape seems to have reported complete results!

National:

ANC 69.58% (-9.73%)
COPE 13.28% (+13.28%)
DA 10.23% (+3.98%)
UDM 3.96% (-4.95%)
ACDP 0.59% (-0.18%)
PAC 0.50% (-0.47%)
ID 0.45% (-0.39%)
APC 0.26%
FF 0.24% (-0.04%)
AZAPO 0.20% (+0.04%)
MDP 0.11%
IFP 0.09% (-0.11%)

everybody else less )

[ag]

Full Provincial results in W Cape

DA 51.33% (+23.22%)
ANC 31.13% (-14.12%)
COPE 7.81% (+7.81%)
ID 5.59% (-2.25%)
ACDP 1.39% (-2.05%)
UDM 0.65% (-1.10%)
FF+ 0.54% (-0.07%)
AJA 0.22%
CDA 0.17%
NPSA 0.17%
PAC 0.16% (-0.25%)
CAPE 0.13%
NA 0.12% (-0.02%)
AMP 0.11% (-0.59%)
APC 0.10%

[ag]

Full National results in W Cape


DA 49.36% (+23.56%)
ANC 31.72% (-14.45%)
COPE 9.01% (+9.01%)
ID 5.40% (-2.57%)
ACDP 1.57% (-2.20%)
FF+ 1.18% (-0.06%)
UDM 0.68% (-1.17%)
AJA 0.17%
PAC 0.17% (-0.29%)
CDA 0.11%
APC 0.11%

[ag]

I did some preliminary computations for seat distributions in the national parliament and in the provincial parliaments. Unless I am mistaken about the formulas, here they are (they could still change: for instance, the distance between COPE and DA in FS is under a hundred votes). In brackets, change from 2004

National:

ANC 265 (-14) - 2 short of the 2/3 majority
DA 66 (+16)
COPE 30 (+30)
IFP 18 (-10)
ID 4 (-3)
UDM 4 (-5)
FF+ 4 (nil)
ACDP 3 (-4)
UCDP 2 (-1)
PAC 1 (-2)
MF 1 (-1)
AZAPO 1 (nil)
APC 1 (+1)
NNP not running (-7)

[ag]

Provisional for provincial legislatures:

W Cape

DA 22 - simple majority out of 42
ANC 14
COPE 3
ID 2
ACDP 1

E Cape

ANC 44
COPE 9
DA 6
UDM 3
AIC 1

N Cape

ANC 19
COPE 5
DA 4
ID 2

KwaZulu - Natal

ANC 51
IFP 18
DA 7
MF 2
COPE 1
ACDP 1

North-West

ANC 25
COPE 3
DA 3
UCDP 2

Free State

ANC 22
COPE 4 (barely above DA - just a few dozen votes difference)
DA 3
FF+ 1

Gauteng

ANC 47
DA 16
COPE 6
FF+ 1
IFP 1
ACDP 1
ID 1

Mpumalanga

ANC 27
DA 2
COPE 1

Limpopo

ANC 43
COPE 4
DA 2

ANC, COPE and DA are the only parties present in all parliaments!

[Hash]

National results by province (parties over 1% only)

W Cape: DA 48.78 (+21.86), ANC 32.86 (-13.42), COPE 9.06 (+9.06), ID 4.49 (-3.48), ACDP 1.62 (-2.16)
N Cape: ANC 61.10 (-7.65), COPE 15.94 (+15.94), DA 13.08 (+1.47), ID 4.72 (-1.89), VF+ 1.20 (-0.29), UCDP 1.10 (+0.79)
E Cape: ANC 69.70 (-9.61), COPE 13.31 (+13.31), DA 9.97 (+2.72), UDM 3.95 (-4.96)
KwaZulu-Natal: ANC 63.97 (+16.5), IFP 20.52 (-14.35), DA 10.33 (+0.33), COPE 1.55 (+1.55), MF 1.10 (-0.76)
Free State: ANC 71.90 (-10.15), DA 12.10 (+3.23), COPE 11.11 (+11.11), VF+ 1.61 (-0.46)
Northwest: ANC 73.84 (-7.99), DA 8.70 (+3.23), COPE 8.43 (+8.43), UCDP 3.94 (-2.59), VF+ 1.44 (+0.3)
Gauteng: ANC 64.76 (-3.98), DA 21.27 (+0.94), COPE 7.78 (+7.78), IFP 1.48 (-1.16), VF+ 1.38 (+0.18)
Mpumalanga: ANC 85.81 (-0.53), DA 7.60 (+0.43), COPE 2.89 (+2.89)
Limpopo: ANC 85.27 (-4.45), COPE 7.21 (+7.21), DA 3.71 (-0.10)

Results in the largest cities, according to the 2001 census.

Johannesburg (GA): ANC 63.15, DA 20.84, COPE 9.49, IFP 2.33
Durban (KZN): ANC 67.52, DA 18.04, IFP 6.81, COPE 2.57, MF 2.5
Cape Town (WC): DA 50.92, ANC 32.76, COPE 8.69, ID 2.76, ACDP 1.74
East Rand (GA): ANC 67.52, DA 20.45, COPE 6.22, IFP 1.86
Pretoria (GA): ANC 61.07, DA 24.90, COPE 7.75, VF+ 2.9, ACDP 1.11
Port Elizabeth (EC): ANC 50.14, DA 28.17, COPE 17.02, ID 1.43
East London (EC): ANC 67.67, COPE 16.54, DA 11.28, ACDP 1.11, UDM 1.01
Vereeniging (GA): ANC 75.07, DA 13.58, COPE 7.22
Bloemfontein (FS): ANC 64.72, DA 16.61, COPE 13.34, VF+ 2.00
Thohoyandou (Limpopo): ANC 88.99, COPE 7.10, DA 1.04

[ag]

There seems to have been a last-minute batch of votes from W Cape, and it did change things a bit. ANC is now under 66% (65.90%). The latest seat distribution is:

National:

ANC 264 (-15) - 3 short of the 2/3 majority
DA 67 (+17)
COPE 30 (+30)
IFP 18 (-10)
ID 4 (-3)
UDM 4 (-5)
FF+ 4 (nil)
ACDP 3 (-4)
UCDP 2 (-1)
PAC 1 (-2)
MF 1 (-1)
AZAPO 1 (nil)
APC 1 (+1)
NNP not running (-7)

update: this seems to be the final vote count. The final state seat allocations seem to be unchanged as well.

[ag]

ANC is, obviously, by far the dominant party in SA. However, this election is, actually, showing some signs of trouble for them. If not for Zuma's attraction to the Zulus, they would have had a rather mediocre performance.  They lost vote share in 8 out of 9 provinces, and in 7 out of 9 this loss is fairly large. Even w/ the great advance in KZN, their final result is the second-lowest since apartheid (the only time they got lesser vote share was in 1994).  Net loss of 15 seats (bigger losses, if not for KZN: some of the people on the other provincial lists must be very unpleasantly surprized) and failure to get the 2/3 majority, though, mostly, symbolic, will be noted.

Furthermore, there is a clear consolidation of the opposition. DA got the second-best result of any party post-apartheid, the only exception being the NP performance in 1994. They gained a total of nearly 1 mln votes (from almost 2 mln in 2004 to almost 3 mln now). Other than a minor vote share retreat in Limpopo, the had good advances nearly everywhere (BTW, what the hell: why their leader in Limpopo, of all places, is a blonde?). They are, for the first time, in full control in Western Cape: no opposition party achieved anything like that either in 1999 or in 2004.  They are only the official opposition, though, in Gauteng and Mpumalanga (barely missed taht in the Free State), and they should become "less white" if they are to do better elsewhere.

COPE, "the new kid on the block", did worse than expected, but still far better than any "new" party in recent history. 7.41% of the vote, 30 seats, presence in all provincial parliaments and the "official opposition" status in 5 out of 9 of those - nothing to sneer at. Of course, IFP is sharply down (though not quite yet out) and nearly all minor parliamentary opposition parties (with the notable - and unfortunate - exception of the FF+) saw precipitous vote share drops: but, long-term, at least the latter, should be good for the opposition. If DA and COPE manage to cooperate decently (or even to form a permanent coalition), ANC might, eventually, find its match even in some places outside the "majority minority" Western Cape.

[Verily]

Map of the result by municipality. Dark is a majority, light is a non-majority plurality. Colors should be obvious (green=ANC, blue=DA, red=IFP).



Anyone know what the DA-majority municipality in Northern Cape is and what was going on there?

[Hash]

Map of the result by municipality. Dark is a majority, light is a non-majority plurality. Colors should be obvious (green=ANC, blue=DA, red=IFP).



Anyone know what the DA-majority municipality in Northern Cape is and what was going on there?

Namaqualand. It is classified as a DMA, which in most cases means game reserve.

Census Data 2001: Coloured 74.8%, White 22.6%, Black 2.6%

DA won 40.3% in 2004, ANC won 37.7% in 2004.

[ottermax]

Time will be the way South Africa will change. There is no denial that despite Zuma's reputation for corruption, the ANC is still a great party to rule South Africa and it can now be kept in check by its lack of a supermajority. I won't be surprised if some other MPs defect and join the ANC giving it the supermajority, but at least they can't have absolute power.

Based on this election it looks like a truly conservative party exists in SA. This fascinates me. Liberal Africa is wonderful! But of course the people are not that liberal and one day the opposition will emerge, and it will be some sort of social conservative group, sadly.

[Verily]

Time will be the way South Africa will change. There is no denial that despite Zuma's reputation for corruption, the ANC is still a great party to rule South Africa and it can now be kept in check by its lack of a supermajority. I won't be surprised if some other MPs defect and join the ANC giving it the supermajority, but at least they can't have absolute power.

Based on this election it looks like a truly conservative party exists in SA. This fascinates me. Liberal Africa is wonderful! But of course the people are not that liberal and one day the opposition will emerge, and it will be some sort of social conservative group, sadly.

Conservatives? You might want to read about the DA before you say stupid things. They're a genuine liberal party in any American sense, far more so than the ANC. (The DA supported the same-sex marriage legalization ruling, for one, which the ANC opposed; can't think of anything else specific right now.)

The ANC is just corruption through and through. Its truly decent members are mostly politically marginalized because they don't "pay the dues". There's this weird romanticism for the party outside of South Africa; at least it's understandable from within, but try to actually learn what scumbags run the party now rather than praising it for its past. (And also look at what the other parties' leaders did; DA leader Helen Zille was one of the most prominent white anti-apartheid activists in South Africa, and without pressure from people like her the apartheid regime would never have caved.)

Hell, the former apartheid people are members of the ANC now. The New National Party merged with the ANC. The party is all about powermongering, not doing good.

Unless you meant COPE, which is just a flash-in-the-pan splinter group of corrupt politicians.

[ottermax]

Time will be the way South Africa will change. There is no denial that despite Zuma's reputation for corruption, the ANC is still a great party to rule South Africa and it can now be kept in check by its lack of a supermajority. I won't be surprised if some other MPs defect and join the ANC giving it the supermajority, but at least they can't have absolute power.

Based on this election it looks like a truly conservative party exists in SA. This fascinates me. Liberal Africa is wonderful! But of course the people are not that liberal and one day the opposition will emerge, and it will be some sort of social conservative group, sadly.

Conservatives? You might want to read about the DA before you say stupid things. They're a genuine liberal party in any American sense, far more so than the ANC. (The DA supported the same-sex marriage legalization ruling, for one, which the ANC opposed; can't think of anything else specific right now.)

The ANC is just corruption through and through. Its truly decent members are mostly politically marginalized because they don't "pay the dues". There's this weird romanticism for the party outside of South Africa; at least it's understandable from within, but try to actually learn what scumbags run the party now rather than praising it for its past. (And also look at what the other parties' leaders did; DA leader Helen Zille was one of the most prominent white anti-apartheid activists in South Africa, and without pressure from people like her the apartheid regime would never have caved.)

Hell, the former apartheid people are members of the ANC now. The New National Party merged with the ANC. The party is all about powermongering, not doing good.

Unless you meant COPE, which is just a flash-in-the-pan splinter group of corrupt politicians.

The ANC voted for the same-sex marriage I believe other wise it wouldn't have been legalized. I would say that they remain rather liberal.

[Hash]

lol @ the socially liberal/conservative talk about South Africa.