2012: Hillary Clinton vs John McCain

[Historia Crux]

(Need some advice for what the election would play out as for my timeline on Atlhistory Wiki, please)

-McCain wins over Barack Obama after McCain doesn't vote by such a large margin with Bush on issues, leaving some ground for McCain to stand on for his calls that he's independent and a moderate. McCain takes some more smarter choices through the 2008 election but does more background checks on Palin and are able to hold back the floodgates from the media for a little longer and this butterfly's and makes Palin do a little better in the interviews by the major networks. In a close election, McCain wins over the Obama/Biden ticket and his Presidency is alright, he goes after the economy and uses several surges in Afghanistan, which has some success. Hillary pushes through a crowded field of candidates and wins the nomination, choosing Brian Schweitzer at the Convention in Dallas over the more talked about Evan Bayh.

President McCain's approval ratings are in the mid 50's and is seen as an alright President by the American people( the economy isn't totally fixed but it better, Iraq is doing fine, There's been some success in Afghanistan, McCain has really been more of a bipartisan President throughout his term and has expanded to work on renewable energy and some other "Green" policies.) When President McCain announced that he was running for reelection, the media and many pundits were shocked beyond belief and thought that Palin or some other Republican would succeed him for the 2012 Nomination in Indianapolis. Voters were willing to vote for McCain as polls showed but polls also showed that there was a weariness over the American people to vote for him with the thoughts that if reelected that he may die in office and many Americans weren't sure that VP Palin was ready for the Presidency.

With an uncertain and weary voting population, a mixed feelings over the McCain Administration and McCain health being called into question, what would this election look like?

[tmthforu94]

Iowa will decide the election.

[Holmes]

Clinton not being able to win West Virginia or Kentucky(or even Ohio) would be a major failure on her part.

[Derek]

[url]]

http://

It would come down to Ohio. McCain would play up social issues and Clinton would play up the down turned economy.

[Bo]

McCain will narrowly win if the unemployment rate is 7.5% or lower. Clinton will narrowly win if the unemployment rate is 7.6% or higher.

[Derek]

No way. If unemployment is about 6.5% with a democrat in office, then the democrats lose. Everyone forgets how much a bad economy hurt Jimmy Carter in 1980. It hurts the incumbent party, not just the Republicans.

[Bo]

No way. If unemployment is about 6.5% with a democrat in office, then the democrats lose. Everyone forgets how much a bad economy hurt Jimmy Carter in 1980. It hurts the incumbent party, not just the Republicans.

Unemployment was 7.5% when Carter lost his reelection bid, not 6.5%. There is a difference between a 6.5% and a 7.5% unemployment rate, especially in terms of public perception.

[Free Palestine]

She'll have the same exact problem in 2012 that McCain had in 2008.  She'll be associated with Obama in the minds of voters, as McCain was with Bush.

[Derek]

that's true but both are disappointing. It still depends on which party is currently in office.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Iowa will decide the election.

The Clinton name is revered in West Virginia. She would carry it along with Ohio and probably Kentucky. Most of the general election polls I saw in 2008 between her and McCain in Kentucky always showed her leading. These are two of the most likely states that McCain won that Hillary would have won (and still could win), along with her home state of Arkansas. Kentucky and West Virginia are both predominantly white, working-class states in Appalachia and both are in the bottom tier in terms of median income. Bill Clinton carried both Kentucky and West Virginia both times in 1992 and 1996. She *may* have won Indiana, too, but I'd still give that state to McCain.

I think you also have to give Hillary Nevada and New Mexico and probably Colorado as well, all three heavily Latino states and we saw during the course of the primaries that Hispanics strongly favored her over Obama. I still think she would narrowly win Iowa as well. As you indicated, she also would have won Missouri because of her appeal in Rural America among working-class whites, of which Missouri has a lot. 

The black turnout wouldn't be as high in the South so I'd give North Carolina to McCain but I still think she would have held onto Florida depending upon the senior citizen vote.

[Derek]

no way. Never forget how many ppl are against Hillary and can't stand her. She would never win Arkansas in today's day and age. She would be associated with Obama. Conservatives would talk about her views on healthcare. It's just not something that could happen. In 2008 I think it would've come down to Ohio for her and McCain.

[HAnnA MArin County]

no way. Never forget how many ppl are against Hillary and can't stand her. She would never win Arkansas in today's day and age. She would be associated with Obama. Conservatives would talk about her views on healthcare. It's just not something that could happen. In 2008 I think it would've come down to Ohio for her and McCain.

Does that exclude the majority of Democratic primary voters (18 million+) who voted for her, the 77% approval ratings she has as Secretary of State and not to mention how she's been named the most admired woman in America for the past 7-8 years? I flagrantly disregard the "people can't stand her" claims. If anything, she's proving to be the winner in this failing administration.

And the only reason Obama lost Arkansas by such a large margin, and why Democrats are in such trouble in Arkansas going into 2010, is because she wasn't the nominee. Of course she would win Arkansas. With her on top of the ticket, the state would have swung probably more Democratic in 2008 than it did Republican. But I'm sure the people in Arkansas did not appreciate the way the Democratic establishment threw her under the bus in 2008 and now they're making them pay for it. Why else would a state as heavily Democratic as Arkansas, where Democrats maintain super-majority status in the state legislature not to mention controlling all statewide executive offices, just all of a sudden swung so suddenly and strongly away from their roots? Yes, I'm sure race had something to do with it, but the Clinton factor is/was the determining reason. I'm sure if you could find any hypothetical general election match-up poll in Arkansas say between Hillary and any generic Republican, she would crush them all, save for Mike Huckabee which it would be a close race. 

[Derek]

You have a point about her being the beneficiary of Obama's failed administration. I think Arkansas would've been within 7 points in 2008 if she were the nominee too. I still don't think that she would win that state anymore. She would likely be portrayed as someone who lost touch with their roots.

[Bo]

no way. Never forget how many ppl are against Hillary and can't stand her. She would never win Arkansas in today's day and age. She would be associated with Obama. Conservatives would talk about her views on healthcare. It's just not something that could happen. In 2008 I think it would've come down to Ohio for her and McCain.

Does that exclude the majority of Democratic primary voters (18 million+) who voted for her, the 77% approval ratings she has as Secretary of State and not to mention how she's been named the most admired woman in America for the past 7-8 years? I flagrantly disregard the "people can't stand her" claims. If anything, she's proving to be the winner in this failing administration.

And the only reason Obama lost Arkansas by such a large margin, and why Democrats are in such trouble in Arkansas going into 2010, is because she wasn't the nominee. Of course she would win Arkansas. With her on top of the ticket, the state would have swung probably more Democratic in 2008 than it did Republican. But I'm sure the people in Arkansas did not appreciate the way the Democratic establishment threw her under the bus in 2008 and now they're making them pay for it. Why else would a state as heavily Democratic as Arkansas, where Democrats maintain super-majority status in the state legislature not to mention controlling all statewide executive offices, just all of a sudden swung so suddenly and strongly away from their roots? Yes, I'm sure race had something to do with it, but the Clinton factor is/was the determining reason. I'm sure if you could find any hypothetical general election match-up poll in Arkansas say between Hillary and any generic Republican, she would crush them all, save for Mike Huckabee which it would be a close race. 

Arkansas is only a Democratic state on the state and local level. On the Presidential level it has become solidly Republican--even before Obama, Gore and Kerry both lost the state. Even on the state level Arkansas might become more Republican now.

[Conservative frontier]

My Vote : Lean-McCain

[Psychic Octopus]

If McCain's approval numbers are in the mid fifties (53-57) he certainly wins.

[Bo]

If McCain's approval numbers are in the mid fifties (53-57) he certainly wins.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^