Montana and Delaware +1 in 2020?

[cinyc]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

Of the three states, only Delaware's 2000-2007 growth (10.4%) outpaces US growth (7.2%).  Montana is growing one point more slowly than the national average (6.2%).

I suppose if more people begin to flee California for Montana due to California's economic woes, Montana might have a slightly better chance than Delaware of picking up another seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat.  But that's only because Montana currently has 93,000 more people than Delaware.  Neither is that likely.  Montana needs to pick up about 100,000 people to just equal Rhode Island - let alone surpass it.

[cinyc]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

Of the three states, only Delaware's 2000-2007 growth (10.4%) outpaces US growth (7.2%).  Montana is growing one point more slowly than the national average (6.2%).

I suppose if more people begin to flee California for Montana due to California's economic woes, Montana might have a slightly better chance than Delaware of picking up another seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat.  But that's only because Montana currently has 93,000 more people than Delaware.  Neither is that likely.  Montana needs to pick up about 100,000 people to just equal Rhode Island - let alone surpass it.

From 2000-2008 Montana grew by 7.2%, Delaware by 11.4%, and Rhode Island by 0.2%.  The US grew by about 8% over the same period.

From 2007-2008 Montana grew by 1.12% and Delaware by 1.28% (US was 0.91%).  Rhode Island shrunk by 0.22% over the same period.

Looking at the population estimates of the past 8 years you can see that both Montana has been adding about 11,000 people per year since 2004.  Delaware has been adding about 12,000 people per year since 2000.  And finally, Rhode Island has been losing about 5,000 people per year since 2004. 

If these trends continue (and I'm doing my math right) Montana will surpass 1 million people sometime during 2011, it will surpass Rhode Island by 2014, and by 2020 Montana will have nearly 1.1 million people.  Delaware will pass Rhode Island in 2019 and hit 1 million in 2020.  Rhode Island will be under 1 million by 2019 and in 2020 will be slightly larger than Montana is currently.

Obviously none of these states will see a change in apportionment in 2010 unless something extreme happens.  But in 2020 I think its highly likely that Montana and Delaware could be gaining seats and Rhode Island could be going down to one.

Assuming current trends continue, Rhode Island could very well be going down to one seat by 2020.  The problem for Montana is that its growth is slightly below the national average.  So whatever seat that otherwise may have gone to it would more likely go to another state - one that is growing faster than the rest of the country.  Similarly, although a state with a population of 1.05 million might have been able to get 2 seats in 2000 or 2010, by 2020, 1.05 million might not be large enough.  The census estimates the 2020 population at 341 million, meaning the average district size will be about 783,000 (assuming 436 seats).

By the way, Delaware has only had 2 House seats for one decade in our history - from 1813 to 1823.  Montana has had 2 House seats more often than not since it became a state - from 1913 to 1993.  Rhode Island has NEVER had fewer than 2 House seats since seats have been apportioned based on Census results in 1793 (it had 1 seat apportioned before the first census and 3 seats from 1913-1933).

[cinyc]

I have to question how much more Delaware can grow. It seems to be doing well on beachfront living, but that has a limit. You can build more condos on the Atlantic Coast of Delaware but you can't create a new Fort Myers or Myrtle Beach with 200,000 more people.

Well, New Castle County is also growing, suggesting that exurban Philadelphia growth may be part of the picture.  There's still room for more growth in Northern New Castle County and along the Delaware 1 corridor.

[cinyc]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

That's not true. As I said in way back in 2009, Delaware had 2 House seats from 1813-23.

[cinyc]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

That's not true. As I said in way back in 2009, Delaware had 2 House seats from 1813-23.

Correction: that's partially correct. Although DE had 2 seats from 1813-1823, it never broke the state into 2 separate geographical districts, as it would have to do now.