Montana and Delaware +1 in 2020?

[Padfoot]

Montana and Delaware both seem to be on track to surpass Rhode Island in population by 2020.  Rhode Island is currently stagnating/ losing population while Montana and Delaware are both growing fairly rapidly (especially Delaware).  Should they pass Rhode Island it is also highly likely that both states will pass the 1 million mark.  If/when this happens will Montana and Delaware also receive a second member of the House or will the US population be so large that 1 million people won't be enough to warrant a second House seat?  Also, does anyone know what the driving force behind the growth in these two states is and will/can it be sustained over the next several years?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Delaware gained a seat, it'd be virtually impossible to not have one super-safe D and one super-safe R district.

[Padfoot]

If Delaware gained a seat, it'd be virtually impossible to not have one super-safe D and one super-safe R district.

I dunno,  I think you'd probably have one D+20 district completely within New Castle county and one neutral to R+10 district in the south.  I'm thinking the southern district would probably be slightly to the left of MD-1 and that district is supposed to be R+10.

[Brittain33]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

[cinyc]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

Of the three states, only Delaware's 2000-2007 growth (10.4%) outpaces US growth (7.2%).  Montana is growing one point more slowly than the national average (6.2%).

I suppose if more people begin to flee California for Montana due to California's economic woes, Montana might have a slightly better chance than Delaware of picking up another seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat.  But that's only because Montana currently has 93,000 more people than Delaware.  Neither is that likely.  Montana needs to pick up about 100,000 people to just equal Rhode Island - let alone surpass it.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

If Delaware gained a seat, it'd be virtually impossible to not have one super-safe D and one super-safe R district.

I dunno,  I think you'd probably have one D+20 district completely within New Castle county and one neutral to R+10 district in the south.  I'm thinking the southern district would probably be slightly to the left of MD-1 and that district is supposed to be R+10.

Either way, DE would have one Democrat and one Republican, although you are right that the former would be more Democratic than the latter Republican. You are also right that the Republican district would be in the south and that the Democratic one would be in New Castle County.

[Padfoot]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

Of the three states, only Delaware's 2000-2007 growth (10.4%) outpaces US growth (7.2%).  Montana is growing one point more slowly than the national average (6.2%).

I suppose if more people begin to flee California for Montana due to California's economic woes, Montana might have a slightly better chance than Delaware of picking up another seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat.  But that's only because Montana currently has 93,000 more people than Delaware.  Neither is that likely.  Montana needs to pick up about 100,000 people to just equal Rhode Island - let alone surpass it.

From 2000-2008 Montana grew by 7.2%, Delaware by 11.4%, and Rhode Island by 0.2%.  The US grew by about 8% over the same period.

From 2007-2008 Montana grew by 1.12% and Delaware by 1.28% (US was 0.91%).  Rhode Island shrunk by 0.22% over the same period.

Looking at the population estimates of the past 8 years you can see that both Montana has been adding about 11,000 people per year since 2004.  Delaware has been adding about 12,000 people per year since 2000.  And finally, Rhode Island has been losing about 5,000 people per year since 2004. 

If these trends continue (and I'm doing my math right) Montana will surpass 1 million people sometime during 2011, it will surpass Rhode Island by 2014, and by 2020 Montana will have nearly 1.1 million people.  Delaware will pass Rhode Island in 2019 and hit 1 million in 2020.  Rhode Island will be under 1 million by 2019 and in 2020 will be slightly larger than Montana is currently.

Obviously none of these states will see a change in apportionment in 2010 unless something extreme happens.  But in 2020 I think its highly likely that Montana and Delaware could be gaining seats and Rhode Island could be going down to one.

[cinyc]

Delaware can't grow enough to get a second seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat. I doubt Montana will, either.

Of the three states, only Delaware's 2000-2007 growth (10.4%) outpaces US growth (7.2%).  Montana is growing one point more slowly than the national average (6.2%).

I suppose if more people begin to flee California for Montana due to California's economic woes, Montana might have a slightly better chance than Delaware of picking up another seat before Rhode Island loses its second seat.  But that's only because Montana currently has 93,000 more people than Delaware.  Neither is that likely.  Montana needs to pick up about 100,000 people to just equal Rhode Island - let alone surpass it.

From 2000-2008 Montana grew by 7.2%, Delaware by 11.4%, and Rhode Island by 0.2%.  The US grew by about 8% over the same period.

From 2007-2008 Montana grew by 1.12% and Delaware by 1.28% (US was 0.91%).  Rhode Island shrunk by 0.22% over the same period.

Looking at the population estimates of the past 8 years you can see that both Montana has been adding about 11,000 people per year since 2004.  Delaware has been adding about 12,000 people per year since 2000.  And finally, Rhode Island has been losing about 5,000 people per year since 2004. 

If these trends continue (and I'm doing my math right) Montana will surpass 1 million people sometime during 2011, it will surpass Rhode Island by 2014, and by 2020 Montana will have nearly 1.1 million people.  Delaware will pass Rhode Island in 2019 and hit 1 million in 2020.  Rhode Island will be under 1 million by 2019 and in 2020 will be slightly larger than Montana is currently.

Obviously none of these states will see a change in apportionment in 2010 unless something extreme happens.  But in 2020 I think its highly likely that Montana and Delaware could be gaining seats and Rhode Island could be going down to one.

Assuming current trends continue, Rhode Island could very well be going down to one seat by 2020.  The problem for Montana is that its growth is slightly below the national average.  So whatever seat that otherwise may have gone to it would more likely go to another state - one that is growing faster than the rest of the country.  Similarly, although a state with a population of 1.05 million might have been able to get 2 seats in 2000 or 2010, by 2020, 1.05 million might not be large enough.  The census estimates the 2020 population at 341 million, meaning the average district size will be about 783,000 (assuming 436 seats).

By the way, Delaware has only had 2 House seats for one decade in our history - from 1813 to 1823.  Montana has had 2 House seats more often than not since it became a state - from 1913 to 1993.  Rhode Island has NEVER had fewer than 2 House seats since seats have been apportioned based on Census results in 1793 (it had 1 seat apportioned before the first census and 3 seats from 1913-1933).

[minionofmidas]

If Delaware gained a seat, it'd be virtually impossible to not have one super-safe D and one super-safe R district.

I dunno,  I think you'd probably have one D+20 district completely within New Castle county and one neutral to R+10 district in the south.  I'm thinking the southern district would probably be slightly to the left of MD-1 and that district is supposed to be R+10.

Either way, DE would have one Democrat and one Republican, although you are right that the former would be more Democratic than the latter Republican. You are also right that the Republican district would be in the south and that the Democratic one would be in New Castle County.

Actually, it'd take some creative mapping to create a southern Delaware district that Obama didn't win.
McCain won Sussex and Kent combined by a whisper. The CD would also have to include a fifth of New Castle County. A fairly drawn open southern district would certainly be winnable for Republicans... but the odds are below 50%.

[muon2]

MT and DE will likely pass RI in 2020. However, that doesn't mean they'll get extra seats, rather RI will likely lose one in 2020. Currently MT is growing at less than the national average, so they won't be on track to pick up a seat unless they speed up on the nation slows down. DE is growing faster than average, but they start this decade further behind, so it isn't clear that they will overtake MT by 2020.

[Brittain33]

I have to question how much more Delaware can grow. It seems to be doing well on beachfront living, but that has a limit. You can build more condos on the Atlantic Coast of Delaware but you can't create a new Fort Myers or Myrtle Beach with 200,000 more people.

[Padfoot]

MT and DE will likely pass RI in 2020. However, that doesn't mean they'll get extra seats, rather RI will likely lose one in 2020. Currently MT is growing at less than the national average, so they won't be on track to pick up a seat unless they speed up on the nation slows down. DE is growing faster than average, but they start this decade further behind, so it isn't clear that they will overtake MT by 2020.

I was wondering when I'd rope you into this one muon. 

It seems that the consensus is that Rhode Island is more likely to lose a seat than Montana and Delaware are to gain one.  However, the question still remains: what is driving the rapid growth in Delaware right now?

[cinyc]

I have to question how much more Delaware can grow. It seems to be doing well on beachfront living, but that has a limit. You can build more condos on the Atlantic Coast of Delaware but you can't create a new Fort Myers or Myrtle Beach with 200,000 more people.

Well, New Castle County is also growing, suggesting that exurban Philadelphia growth may be part of the picture.  There's still room for more growth in Northern New Castle County and along the Delaware 1 corridor.

[Verily]

Talking about a second district in Delaware, it wouldn't be all that Republican. New Castle County is currently about two-thirds of the state's population, so it would be a pretty big chunk of the district.

The area in the new district would be less Democratic than the county as a whole, maybe 60% for Obama as opposed to 69%. Kent County forms just under a third of the remainder of the district while Sussex County is just over a third, but these balance out as  the two counties combined gave a net of only 1,200 votes to McCain. Overall, this would mean a net of about 16,000 votes for Obama in the new district with a current vote-pool of about 241,000, or about a margin of 6.6%. So the district would have been R+0.6 in 2008. The other seat would have been around 75% for Obama, or about D+18.

Obviously this doesn't take into account future growth, Biden as VP candidate, and shifting voting patterns in the state during the years or decades needed to acquire a second seat.

[Lunar]

Besides, it's not like gerrymandering can't simply split the state vertically or something instead of horizontally.

[jimrtex]

You can think of the 1st number as a non-integer apportionment.  If it is below 1.5 the state would get 1 representative.  The second number is the projected change from 2000-2010.  You could use this as crude projection for 2010 to 2020.  The 5th is the increase/decrease in population needed to get one more/fewer seats in 2010.

Delaware is slowly gaining on the 2nd seat, but it could be another 30 years or so before it gains the seat that Thomas Jefferson denied it.  It increased at 4% faster than the USA at large, but would need 12% more to get a 2nd seat.

Montana very narrowly lost its 2nd seat in 1990.  Early in the 1990s it appeared that it would gain it back, but its growth tailed off toward the end of the decade.  It is growing very slightly slower than the USA as whole.  If it could grow 2% faster than the country as a whole, it could gain back the 2nd seat.  Or it could continue on for a very long time as the most populous CD in the country (at least following the census).

Rhode Island is quite in line to lose its 2nd seat in 2020.  It really isn't a case of Delaware and Montana catching Rhode Island, as Rhode Island falling back towards them.

Alaska                1.102    0.013   1   11.6%  43.0%
Delaware              1.350    0.042   1   14.0%  12.0%
Hawaii                1.899   -0.036   2    7.7% -23.4%
Idaho                 2.270    0.212   2   21.9%   9.9%
Maine                 1.926   -0.103   2    4.0% -24.5%
Montana               1.466   -0.013   1    8.8%   1.9%
New Hampshire         1.937   -0.033   2    7.9% -25.0%
North Dakota          1.030   -0.080   1   -0.1%  56.0%
Rhode Island          1.558   -0.135   2    0.3%  -4.9%
South Dakota          1.248   -0.019   1    8.0%  22.8%
Vermont               1.008   -0.055   1    2.5%  60.4%
Wyoming               0.909   -0.002   1    9.6%  84.9%

[_.]

It looks like Montana will get it's second representative the way things stand currently, while Delaware won't.

Interesting how things play out sometimes.

[Cokeland Saxton]

This thread aged like milk lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

[Sol]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

But then that's one more state to redistrict!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

Only because they didn't district during the decade they had 2 Representatives. Having only three counties probably explains why. They'd have had to either spilt Kent County or join it with one of the other two in an overlarge district.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

Only because they didn't district during the decade they had 2 Representatives. Having only three counties probably explains why. They'd have had to either spilt Kent County or join it with one of the other two in an overlarge district.

Sadly they can’t do that again

[TML]

If Delaware gained a congressional seat my heart would break. DE-At-Large has existed since the congress.

Only because they didn't district during the decade they had 2 Representatives. Having only three counties probably explains why. They'd have had to either spilt Kent County or join it with one of the other two in an overlarge district.

Sadly they can’t do that again

That’s right. Under current conditions, the most compact way to split DE into two districts with roughly equal population would be to have northern New Castle County (including Wilmington) in one district while taking the rest of New Castle County along with the other two counties in the other district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could see Dems try to give the more southerly CD part of Wilmington.

[ottermax]

I don't know Delaware much at all having only driven through it, but this was my attempt at a fairly solid Democratic set of two seats.