Australia, Queensland - 21 March 2009

[Franzl]

Correct me if I'm wrong....but it looks like a pretty secure Labor win here.

[Franzl]

Landslide Labor win:

with 39.1% of the vote counted, ABC is projecting:

Labor: 50 seats
Liberal-National: 32 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

62.3% in...

Labor 43.3%, 51 seats
LibNat 40.8%, 31 seats
Greens 8.2%, 0 seats
Others 7.7%, 4 seats

Three seats not called yet; Labor lead in all of them.

[Franzl]

LNP gains 6 seats: Aspley, Chatsworth, Coomera, Hervey Bay, Indooroopilly, Mudgeeraba

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The four uncalled seats are:

Chatsworth: Labor lead (50.2). 73 or so counted. Southern Brisbane.
Cleveland: LNP now lead (50.5). 68% or so counted. Eastern Brisbane 'burbs.
Gaven: Labor lead (50.7). 35% or so counted. Fast growing area just west of the Gold Coast proper.
Redlands: Labor lead (50.4). 71% or so counted. More eastern Brisbane 'burbs; actually borders Cleveland, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aspley: 54.4 with 71 in. Northern Brisbane; a traditional Liberal seat.
Burdekin: 52.4 with 72 in. Northern Queensland; a technical gain as the Labor majority was purely a creation of redistricting (which be odd; the swing looks to be relatively small).
Clayfield: 56.0 with 69 in. Another technical gain. Inner Northern Brisbane.
Cleveland (mentioned earlier).
Coomera: 51.7 with 69 in. Gold Coast. Double digit swing.
Hervey Bay: 71.4 (your eyesight is fine) with 57 in. Covers, er, Hervey Bay. Massive swing; over 20%.
Indooroopilly: 55.8 with 69 in. Western Brisbane 'burbs. Was held by that guy who defected from Labor to the Greens. Doesn't seem certain whether Lee has outpolled his old party or not.
Mudgeeraba: 54.2 with 70 in. More edge-of-Gold Coast.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LNP pull ahead in Gaven

[Franzl]

Indooroopilly: 55.8 with 69 in. Western Brisbane 'burbs. Was held by that guy who defected from Labor to the Greens. Doesn't seem certain whether Lee has outpolled his old party or not.

And it looks like Greens could get second place there.

[Hash]

Great results.

Indooroopilly: 55.8 with 69 in. Western Brisbane 'burbs. Was held by that guy who defected from Labor to the Greens. Doesn't seem certain whether Lee has outpolled his old party or not.

And it looks like Greens could get second place there.

Labor is directing prefs to the Greenies. But they won't win it.

[Hash]

Looks like One Neuron has lost its last MP.

Dalrymple is 52.3% LNP on 2PP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Hervey Bay figures now look sane; LNP on 55.4 rather than seventy-something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With 70% counted...

Labor 42.7, 53 seats (ABC projection)
LNP    41.1, 32 seats '' ''
Greens 8.2%
Others 8.0%, '' ''

[Hash]

My prediction is 86.52% correct, based on current results. If the LNP wins in Chatsworth and Gaven, it jumps to 88.76%.

On a side note, why the  did I call Whitsunday for the LibNats? That seat actually had a swing to the ALP.

[Smid]

On a side note, why the  did I call Whitsunday for the LibNats? That seat actually had a swing to the ALP.

No idea - there was an airport issue, but I think that should have favoured the LNP.

[minionofmidas]

Oh. Not what I expected.

[minionofmidas]

I like the Qld electoral commishe's phrasing for "independent or Green among top two" on the 2pp table - "Incorrect Candidate Selected". Damn voters, selecting incorrect candidates!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I like the Qld electoral commishe's phrasing for "independent or Green among top two" on the 2pp table - "Incorrect Candidate Selected". Damn voters, selecting incorrect candidates!