The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Simfan34]

Whoa! Huntsman lost 3.5. Why?

[Bull Moose Base]

Herman Cain really made a quiet exit from this party didn't he?

[Joe Republic]

Herman Cain has really made a quiet exit from this party didn't he?

It's more a case of the anti-Romney voters having a severe case of ADD.  Cain's still out there saying the usual ridiculous nonsense that's required to be a mainstream Republican presidential candidate, but his supporters have already moved on to the latest shiny new idiot.

[Mr. Morden]

Whoa! Huntsman lost 3.5. Why?

Since the last update, he lost 1.4, not 3.5.  (Went from 8.0 to 6.6.)

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the July 4th, 2007 early odds on individual primaries.......the CW at that point turned out to be completely wrong on quite a few of these:

IA
Clinton 35
Obama 30.5
Edwards 30

Romney 40.5
Thompson 37.3

NV
Clinton 75
Obama 15

Thompson 60
Giuliani 20

NH
Clinton 55.5
Obama 26.5

Romney 40.5
Thompson 25
Giuliani 24

SC
Obama 50
Clinton 35

Thompson 60
Giuliani 25

FL
Clinton 75
Obama 15

Thompson 40
Giuliani 40

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Whoa! Huntsman lost 3.5. Why?

Because he doesn't have any popular support whatsoever and it is becoming rapidly evident that he doesn't have the policies that will let him do anything except bring Romney down with him.

Cain has also managed to end his own fad, to be replaced by Bachmann. She might do marginally better, but I suspect she will destroy herself as well, and damned if I know who will replace HER.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How are Christie, Giuliani and Gingrich all tied? While the latter's campaign may have been a massive load of epic fail and has essentially collapsed, at least he's running like the former two, of which one has made more denials of running than probably any other candidate in recent history except perhaps Gore.

[Bull Moose Base]

2 days after being almost tied, Bachmann is 5 up on Perry.  Someone have inside info that Perry's not running?

[RogueBeaver]

You don't need inside info to know that Perry is likely staying out.

[TheGlobalizer]

Because he doesn't have any popular support whatsoever and it is becoming rapidly evident that he doesn't have the policies that will let him do anything except bring Romney down with him.

I'd say it differently:

Huntsman has yet to catch fire and that has reduced the number of messianic buyers.  He'll ride out the Bachmann fad until her inevitable next failure, and look forward to making an impact in the debates, as a mature alternative centrist voice to the right-wing nutjobbery.

I don't see how he breaks out without trashing Romney, tho.

I'm a minor fanboy but I don't think Huntsman's results at the moment are the least bit unexpected.  He's playing for the long haul, and frankly, looking at a McCain path to the nomination (waiting for the goofballs to eliminate themselves).

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Bachmann, Huntsman
Down: Perry, Palin

GOP nomination

Romney 33.5
Bachmann 17.5
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.7
Palin 6.0
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.6
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.5
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.6

Winning individual

Obama 58.5
Romney 15.5
Bachmann 6.3
Perry 5.0
Huntsman 3.7
Pawlenty 3.6
Palin 2.7
Paul 1.9
Cain 1.4
Clinton 0.9
Gingrich 0.9
Biden 0.6
Trump 0.6

[Mr. Morden]

Perry has rallied back into a tie with Bachmann for 2nd place.

Up: Perry
Down: Bachmann

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 15.0
Perry 15.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.8
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

Will the following people run?

Perry 67.5
Palin 25.2
Giuliani 16.0
Pataki 13.0
Bolton 8.0
Trump 7.4
Bloomberg 7.0
Christie 5.3
DeMint 5.1

EDIT: If Perry were to announce tomorrow that he's running, what do you think the GOP nomination prices would look like?  Likewise, if Perry announces tomorrow that he's not running, what do the prices look like?

[Yelnoc]

If he announces, Perry Jumps into the mid-high twenties to Romney's detriment and Bachmann's demise.  If he passes, Bachmann surges and Pawlenty and Huntsman both recover.

[King]

I like how Clinton and Biden are more likely to win the election than Gingrich.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Perry
Down: Bachmann

Romney 34.6
Perry 18.2
Bachmann 13.3
Huntsman 8.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Palin 6.1
Paul 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Cain 1.4
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Perry's recent comments about feeling a "calling" to run have caused his share price to surge, while Bachmann sinks.

Up: Perry
Down: Bachmann, Pawlenty, Palin

Romney 34.0
Perry 23.0
Bachmann 9.3
Huntsman 7.3
Pawlenty 6.9
Palin 5.0
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Cain 1.6
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 0.6
Santorum 0.5

[TheGlobalizer]

Perry's calling has eliminated me as a potential supporter.  I'd rather have Obama and a GOP congress.

[Vosem]

Has Romney ever not held the #1 slot?

[tmthforu94]

Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2

[Bull Moose Base]

Palin has moved into the lead, ending Romney's long run in the #1 spot:

Palin 26.5
Romney 25.2
Pawlenty 22.5
Huckabee 14.2
Thune 14.0
Gingrich 10.2

Kind of amazing that Pawlenty was so close to the top back then before the full extent of Palin's (and Gingrich's) unraveling would be seen and before Huckabee (and Thune) would pass on a run, and yet now he's so far back though he's 1 of 4 remaining who can realistically win the nomination.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Perry closing in on Romney. 33.0% to 27.8% now.

[Bull Moose Base]

Perry closing in on Romney. 33.0% to 27.8% now.

He's up 20 on Bachmann who is now lower than Huntsman.  Bachmann on the day she leads a national GOP poll and leads Romney head-to-head is lower than a guy who has more than once gotten zero people voting for him in a statewide poll.  You could argue that early polls have no value.  But you could also argue intrade has even less.

[Middle-aged Europe]

PERRY-HYPE-UM!

Perry takes the lead on Intrade (Perry 31.7%, Romney 30.3%).

[Mr. Morden]

Perry takes the lead in the GOP nomination market, and also passes Romney in winning individual:

Up: Perry
Down: Romney

GOP nomination

Perry 31.7
Romney 30.3
Bachmann 9.3
Huntsman 7.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Palin 5.2
Paul 2.2
Christie 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Gingrich 0.9
Cain 0.8
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Ryan 0.4

Winning individual

Obama 56.2
Perry 14.2
Romney 14.0
Bachmann 3.5
Huntsman 3.0
Palin 2.7
Pawlenty 2.1
Paul 1.6
Clinton 0.7
Biden 0.6
Gingrich 0.6
Trump 0.6

[Yelnoc]

Talk about bandwagon....