The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney is valued just right. I'd be shorting Palin like hell if I was on InTrade if it weren't for the fact it'd likely be two years before a payoff.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's back in the lead, and Gingrich edges out Pawlenty for 4th place:

Romney 24.7
Palin 22.4
Thune 16.5
Gingrich 7.9
Pawlenty 7.5
Paul 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

More Newt-mentum:

Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5

[Yelnoc]

Why would Jeb Bush even be on the charts?

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 23.2
Palin 20.0
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 8.0
Pawlenty 7.1
Jindal 5.0
Huckabee 4.7

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 27.8
Palin 17.5
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 11.1
Pawlenty 7.3
Daniels 6.5
Huckabee 5.7
Paul 4.9

[Beet]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

[milhouse24]

I'm surprised Thune is in 3rd place.  Newt won't run no matter what anyone thinks, he has too many personal issues and used to be known more for being jerkish than an executive leader.  Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney. 

I think there is more appeal for a 2-term Governor like Huckabee in 2008, so Daniels has a chance but he doesn't want to run.  T-Paw is good but very boring.  There are some other 2-term governors and I think they have a likelier chance of beating Romney and Palin (who won't run) for the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

[milhouse24]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

Well it hurt Hillary and Edwards for their lack of experience, Hillary had to rely on the old "co-president" line.  It was very much a celebrity-change inspired election.  But as I said before, the 2-term governors have more valuable executive experience.  Senator Thune is beholden to Presidents Bush and Obama, and will have votes associated with the president at that time.  He is going to have to Spin his votes, instead of touting a leadership position like a Governor.

Is Thune the Republican version of Senator JFK and Senator Obama?  He is young, good-looking, but is he charismatic enough to win over skeptical GOP voters and leaders?

[ComeAndTakeIt53]

What about Paul?

[milhouse24]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

[milhouse24]

Why would Jeb Bush even be on the charts?

I think Jeb is the only person who can decide his own destiny and if he wanted to run, the RNC voters would unanimously vote for Jeb either in 2012 or 2016.

[Bull Moose Base]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

If anything, Thune's weakness is having too much experience, in the form of consistently voting with Bush and for the bailouts.  Bush isn't the albatross he is in a Democratic primary of course or general election, but association with him could maybe even be a negative in the Republican 2012 primary where the party seems eager to distance themselves from his tenure.  It will be interesting to see how the subject of Bush is treated in that primary and whether the media puts Republican candidates on the spot as far as assessing his record.

[California8429]

I'm surprised Thune is in 3rd place.  Newt won't run no matter what anyone thinks, he has too many personal issues and used to be known more for being jerkish than an executive leader.  Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney. 

I think there is more appeal for a 2-term Governor like Huckabee in 2008, so Daniels has a chance but he doesn't want to run.  T-Paw is good but very boring.  There are some other 2-term governors and I think they have a likelier chance of beating Romney and Palin (who won't run) for the nomination.

Newt is running. The campaign is already in the works

[milhouse24]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

If anything, Thune's weakness is having too much experience, in the form of consistently voting with Bush and for the bailouts.  Bush isn't the albatross he is in a Democratic primary of course or general election, but association with him could maybe even be a negative in the Republican 2012 primary where the party seems eager to distance themselves from his tenure.  It will be interesting to see how the subject of Bush is treated in that primary and whether the media puts Republican candidates on the spot as far as assessing his record.

I think they would ignore Bush for the most part.  Each person wants to be seen as his own man.  In 2008, somehow McCain's leading issue tied him to bush, which was McCain's unwavering support for Iraq and the Surge.  Sure the surge ended up working in 2007 as a last gasp by the Bush administration, but by that time most voters were ready to turn the page on Iraq and let them settle the war themselves.  Instead of being his own man, McCain tied himself to Iraq and therefore closer to the Bush administration. 

I think governors like Barbour and Daniels will have more breathing room because they don't have to talk about Bush or the Senate votes.  They can talk about middle-america and our future, not the past. 

Romney is a has-been who is kissing up to the Bush and Conservatives since 2008.  Is he really giving the change people want. 

Newt is 67 years old and I really don't think he has any base of voters.  Will Christian conservatives rally around the thrice-divorced former speaker?  He's an intellectual, but he needs to be a crowd-pleaser and Haley is a crowd-pleaser.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 24.1
Palin 16.3
Thune 13.2
Gingrich 12.0
Pawlenty 10.6
Huckabee 4.7
Jeb Bush 4.3
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Jindal 2.2

[Beet]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

[milhouse24]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

I trust Levi Johnson when he says that Palin wanted to get rich off her new found fame. 
Of course, if she sees a higher calling to be president, and give up that money, that could happen.  But she's in a good position now, it can hurt her brand more if she gets into an ugly primary battle with Romney and others.  If you think she sounded dumb in 2008, then prepare for a huge stinkbomb when she goes on those 10 or more primary debates.  Plus, if she gets the nomination and loses to Obama, she would have really wasted a lot of time and income earning.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

[Bo]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

I trust Levi Johnson when he says that Palin wanted to get rich off her new found fame. 
Of course, if she sees a higher calling to be president, and give up that money, that could happen.  But she's in a good position now, it can hurt her brand more if she gets into an ugly primary battle with Romney and others.  If you think she sounded dumb in 2008, then prepare for a huge stinkbomb when she goes on those 10 or more primary debates.  Plus, if she gets the nomination and loses to Obama, she would have really wasted a lot of time and income earning.

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books. Also, people would remember her longer that way and thus her celebrity career afterwards can have much more income-earning potential in the long-run. Most people remember former Presidential nominees much longer than they remember former VP nominees. And also, pretty much everything (including the negative stuff) about Palin's personal life and career has already been uncovered, so there isn't a very high chance that a lot of large new dirt on her would be uncovered. Even if something new and bad about Palin was uncovered, I really don't think it will change people's opinions of her much. Her fans and supporters will still like her a lot, while most Democrats and Independents would still dislike her.

[Yelnoc]

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

I wonder what caused Daniels and Pence to both make a 5 point jump?

[Bo]

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

I wonder what caused Daniels and Pence to both make a 5 point jump?

A lot of buying from wealthy supporters of theirs, probably.

[Mr. Morden]

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books.

I don't think that's right.  There's a certain stigma associate with being a losing presidential candidate, especially if you lose really spectacularly.  Look at what happened with Giuliani.  His failed presidential run hurt his brand and damaged his lucrative consulting business.  As long as Palin doesn't run for prez, she'll continue to be viewed as a leading voice in the party, who speaks for a large segment of the base.  If she runs and disappoints, and loses the nomination, then it would demonstrate that she doesn't speak for as many people in the party as was previously thought, and her brand would be hurt.

This is why Gingrich has teased a possible presidential run for 15 years but never runs.  If he's a potential future candidate, then more people will listen to him.  Whereas if he runs and loses spectacularly, he'd be ignored.  The only reason he might finally run in 2012 is because he's getting so old that he can't plausibly keep playing this game any longer.

[Bo]

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books.

I don't think that's right.  There's a certain stigma associate with being a losing presidential candidate, especially if you lose really spectacularly.  Look at what happened with Giuliani.  His failed presidential run hurt his brand and damaged his lucrative consulting business.  As long as Palin doesn't run for prez, she'll continue to be viewed as a leading voice in the party, who speaks for a large segment of the base.  If she runs and disappoints, and loses the nomination, then it would demonstrate that she doesn't speak for as many people in the party as was previously thought, and her brand would be hurt.

This is why Gingrich has teased a possible presidential run for 15 years but never runs.  If he's a potential future candidate, then more people will listen to him.  Whereas if he runs and loses spectacularly, he'd be ignored.  The only reason he might finally run in 2012 is because he's getting so old that he can't plausibly keep playing this game any longer.

Palin is a unique case, though. A lot of previously hidden dirt on Giuliani came up while he was campaigning. Thus, people's opinions changed because they found out bad stuff about him that they didn't know before. In regards to Palin, most of the dirt on her already came out, so I seriously doubt significant dirt about her would come out in the future. Also, Giuliani always had a much shakier chance at the nomination than Palin because Giuliani was pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control. Many Republicans didn't like those positions and once those positions were publicized, he lost. Palin's positions are almost perfect for the GOP electorate, and there is little on the actual issues that her GOP opponents could criticize her on. I suppose she could damage herself somewhat if she ran for the GOP nomination and lost, but she would still get a lot of extra publicity and possibly more devoted supporters. On the other hand, if she wins the nomination but loses the general election, she would get huge amounts of publicity and when she would lose, at least she would lose fighting for her principles like Goldwater did in 1964. That would ensure that Palin would retain her influence in the GOP for a much longer time than she would have otherwise. And Palin has very good odds at winning the GOP nomination, and I think she knows that. Goldwater was still very relevant in the GOP in the 1980s, 20+ years after he lost. However, former VP nominees who lose (Ferraro, Kemp, Lieberman, Edwards, etc.) typically quickly fade into irrelevancy, and Palin would probably follow in their footsteps and become irrelevant relatively quickly unless she does something to maximize her publicity.