Venezuelan Dictatorship Referendum, 15 February

[Hash]

They rigged it, as expected.

They didn't rig it, the "Yes" was leading by 7% in polls conducted before the referendum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE51D28Z20090214?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Nontheless, a disturbing result ...

Polls were all over the place. Top of that, all exit polls indicated a NO victory.

[Franzl]

They rigged it, as expected.

They didn't rig it, the "Yes" was leading by 7% in polls conducted before the referendum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE51D28Z20090214?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Nontheless, a disturbing result ...

Polls were all over the place. Top of that, all exit polls indicated a NO victory.

Exit polls don't really say much...look at how terrible they've performed in Israel and the U.S.

That said...I don't trust Venezuelan "democracy" at all...but I think it's probably legitimate here.

[Hash]

They rigged it, as expected.

They didn't rig it, the "Yes" was leading by 7% in polls conducted before the referendum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE51D28Z20090214?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Nontheless, a disturbing result ...

Polls were all over the place. Top of that, all exit polls indicated a NO victory.

Exit polls don't really say much...look at how terrible they've performed in Israel and the U.S.

That said...I don't trust Venezuelan "democracy" at all...but I think it's probably legitimate here.

I have strong doubts about the legitimacy.

[minionofmidas]

They rigged it, as expected.

They didn't rig it, the "Yes" was leading by 7% in polls conducted before the referendum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE51D28Z20090214?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Nontheless, a disturbing result ...

Polls were all over the place. Top of that, all exit polls indicated a NO victory.

Exit polls don't really say much...look at how terrible they've performed in Israel and the U.S.

That said...I don't trust Venezuelan "democracy" at all...but I think it's probably legitimate here.

I have strong doubts about the legitimacy.

Why?

[Hash]

They rigged it, as expected.

They didn't rig it, the "Yes" was leading by 7% in polls conducted before the referendum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE51D28Z20090214?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Nontheless, a disturbing result ...

Polls were all over the place. Top of that, all exit polls indicated a NO victory.

Exit polls don't really say much...look at how terrible they've performed in Israel and the U.S.

That said...I don't trust Venezuelan "democracy" at all...but I think it's probably legitimate here.

I have strong doubts about the legitimacy.

Why?

I don't know. I just don't trust Chavez and his PSUV.

[Franzl]

To be fair...aren't we always sceptical of any result that favors Chavez?

[minionofmidas]

No government that forges election results loses votes as narrowly as Chavez lost the 2007 referendum. (Not saying irregularities at the local level are impossible, o/c)

[minionofmidas]

Btw, can someone who knows what he's talking about (looking at our Mexican correspondent here ) give me a breakdown of the differences between 07 and 09 that might explain the differences of outcome (details of proposals perhaps - there seems no real reason for the public mood to swing towards Chavez)?

[Hash]

Btw, can someone who knows what he's talking about (looking at our Mexican correspondent here ) give me a breakdown of the differences between 07 and 09 that might explain the differences of outcome (details of proposals perhaps - there seems no real reason for the public mood to swing towards Chavez)?

This new thing just removed term limits on the President, National Assembly, regional legislators, and Governors. I believe the 2007 constitution also removed term limits in addition to Chavista proposals such as a 36-hour workweek, voting age at 16, ending the central bank's autonomy, administrative reorganization, seven-year presidential term, and so forth.

[Tender Branson]

No government that forges election results loses votes as narrowly as Chavez lost the 2007 referendum. (Not saying irregularities at the local level are impossible, o/c)

Uhhh, just look at 2000. Gore and the Clinton-regime nearly won a third term.

[Eraserhead]

The results are probably legit, sorry to say.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The results are probably legit, sorry to say.

Probably legit?

They are more legit than the final result of the 2000 United States Presidential Election.

(EDIT from your FRIENDLY NEIGHBOURHOOD DESPOT!!!!... yeah, you're right. But COOL IT. Please. Diolch).

[Keystone Phil]

Well, this ought to occupy my Democratization class tomorrow. Such a terrible result. I can't wait to see this pig gone. Looks like I might have to wait awhile for that...

PS I wouldn't call him a "pig". His intentions, are, actually, good, I believe - that's why he is rushing at high speed to Hell.

Uh...?

His intentions are good, but, like the saying says, ''The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions''.

That is what I understand of ag.

Well, ok, I should have picked up on the old saying but to say that this guy has totally good intentions is really naive.

Depending on how you define good intentions He is clearly not very interested in personal luxury - might be a consideration, but it is minor. He hates his opponents - but he does not visibly enjoy doing nasty things to them. He is clearly motivated by a desire to transform an unequal society and help the poor - nothing bad in itself, except the path he has chosen does not lead where he thinks it does. He clearly thinks of himself as the only one capable of seeing it through - lack of humility and a fatal error, to be sure, but not everybody views it as a sin, and, clearly, he is among those who don't. He is willing to use nasty means to get to the worthy goals (though, truth be told, so far, he has abstained from the worst excess) - but, surely, he only does it when he views the goals as worthy.

Don't get me wrong: I do believe, he is the worst thing that happened to Venezuela in a long, long time. It's going to be Hell, and he is going to be responsible. But a pig he is not.

I'm wondering where expression of freedom of speech fits into the "worthy goals" category.

[Daniel Adams]

I'm not sure how legitimate this result is considering Chávez controls virtually all media outlets, Chávez's supporters' illegal last minute campaigning, and the tendentious phrasing of the question on the ballot.

[ag]

Btw, can someone who knows what he's talking about (looking at our Mexican correspondent here ) give me a breakdown of the differences between 07 and 09 that might explain the differences of outcome (details of proposals perhaps - there seems no real reason for the public mood to swing towards Chavez)?

This guy does it:

http://www.caracaschronicles.com

Basically, a lot more people voted No then in 2007. But this time chavistas were ready and mobilized their own.

It seems, there was a surge in the "yes" vote towards the end of the day - I am not saying they've stuffed it, but they did do a lot of "GOTV"-type activity, most likely.

[ag]

I'm not sure how legitimate this result is considering Chávez controls virtually all media outlets, Chávez's supporters' illegal last minute campaigning, and the tendentious phrasing of the question on the ballot.

Former president Zedillo of Mexico (the last PRI guy to hold the office) put it most succinctly about his own election: "it was legitimate, but it wasn't fair"

Paradoxically, this election shows exactly why term limits are necessary: incumbents do not loose.

[ag]

The results are probably legit, sorry to say.

Legit, in the sense they didn't stuff the ballots - yes. Legit, in the sense that more people voted "yes" then "no".

They were legyt - they were not fair. That's the problem w/ presidential systems in Latin America: a loosing incumbent is a very rare beast indeed. That's why term limits are necessary: without term limits, presidents in the region would not be observationally distinguishable from the Pope: once elected they would leave the palace to go to the cemetery (or to exile - in case they manage to flee a coup alive).

Mind it: when and if Uribe tries to abolish the term limits, I will say the same.

[ag]

The results are probably legit, sorry to say.

Probably legit?

They are more legit than the final result of the 2000 United States Presidential Election.

No, they are not. Both candidates in the US functioned within a constitutional framework they were not attempting to change. This changes the constitutional framework radically, for the benefit of the incumbent. Paradoxically, I am not even sure it increases Chavez's expected time in office (it does create a substantial probability he stays for another 30 years, but it also sharply increases probability he won't even finish this term). To sum up: the 2000 election did not endanger the US. This referendum does endanger Venezuela.

 

[Lief 🗽]

Oh no, he passed a referendum doing away with Presidential term limits! DEMOCRACY IS DEAD.

And if this vote is illegitimate because exit polls were off by a bit, the past three United States presidential elections were also illegitimate. Chavez is hardly a saint, but he's not some of authoritarian despot.

[platypeanArchcow]

Oh no, he passed a referendum doing away with Presidential term limits! DEMOCRACY IS DEAD.

And if this vote is illegitimate because exit polls were off by a bit, the past three United States presidential elections were also illegitimate. Chavez is hardly a saint, but he's not some of authoritarian despot.

No one's arguing that the vote wasn't legitimate.  People are, however, arguing that the vote isn't fair.  The way you win votes in pseudo-dictatorships like Venezuela or Russia is by controlling the media.  Venezuela is somewhat less blatant about this than Russia is, but it's still pretty bad.

And yes, the fact that this passed is a symptom of Venezuela being an illiberal democracy and is likely to cause it to remain so for a while.

[minionofmidas]

The way you win votes in pseudo-dictatorships like Venezuela or Russia is by controlling the media.

Infinitely less important in a highly polarized polity like Venezuela than a fractured one like Russia (where it's the key to everything, really)  though. Also, note that Chavez, Morales, etc all won their (first, in Chavez' case) victory in the face of overwhelming meeja hostility.

[ag]

Oh no, he passed a referendum doing away with Presidential term limits! DEMOCRACY IS DEAD.

And if this vote is illegitimate because exit polls were off by a bit, the past three United States presidential elections were also illegitimate. Chavez is hardly a saint, but he's not some of authoritarian despot.

The exit polls were not really off - the one credible exit poll showed roughly what happened. It's not illegit, in that sense. It is, nevertherless awful: he severely undermined the stability of the Venezuelan state and sharply increased the probability of a very bloody civil war. Otherwise, everything is ok.

[ag]

Oh no, he passed a referendum doing away with Presidential term limits! DEMOCRACY IS DEAD.

And if this vote is illegitimate because exit polls were off by a bit, the past three United States presidential elections were also illegitimate. Chavez is hardly a saint, but he's not some of authoritarian despot.

No one's arguing that the vote wasn't legitimate.  People are, however, arguing that the vote isn't fair.  The way you win votes in pseudo-dictatorships like Venezuela or Russia is by controlling the media.  Venezuela is somewhat less blatant about this than Russia is, but it's still pretty bad.

And yes, the fact that this passed is a symptom of Venezuela being an illiberal democracy and is likely to cause it to remain so for a while.

Actually, there is a difference between Russia and Venezuela. Chavez is an SOB, but he is not a paranoid SOB. He doesn't do more than is necessary. There is still viable and powerful opposition that comes close to winning (and in many places wins outright). Elections are not outright faked - though, of course, enough pressure is applied for the authorities to win the most important stuff. Venezuela is still a democracy of sorts - just not a liberal democracy and not a stable democracy. I don't believe the current arrangement is stable - it will likely either degenerate into a dictatorship, or into an open and possibly bloody conflict.  But, so far, it is still a democracy.

In Russia they are paranoid. It's not enough that they win: opposition has to be annihilated. It's not enough that 60% of the voters voluntarily vote for them: results have to be faked outright (if your district comes last in the vote for United Russia, you, as a local authority will suffer - if everybody gets 65%, you can't afford producing 60%). Media are under a much more severe clampdown. Opposition is near non-existant (and, with partial exception of the Commies, is not even trying to record electoral violations). Unlike Venezuela Russia is not a democracy under any definition of the term. It is, to be sure, a popular autoritarian regime - it would have won real elections, if it held them. It just doesn't.

Consequently, there is another important distinction. In Venezuela the political spectrum is well-defined. The fault lines are visible and publically observed. We can predict what is likely to happen - and, perhaps, the political actors might try to avoid the worst. In Russia we really don't know sh**t. It will explode, eventually. But where, when, and why - who the hell knows.