Venezuelan Dictatorship Referendum, 15 February

[Bono]

So, there'll be this referendum on whether to grant Chavez de facto dictatorial powers this Sunday. 

Discuss here.

[rob in cal]

The referendum will be on whether to do away with presidential term limits.  It will be funny to see if long term US congressional office holders like Dingel, Waxman, Mccain, Pelosi, Hoyer, Kennedy and others find it a terrible idea inasmuch as they run on and on and on.

[Phony Moderate]

When will we find out the results?

[Hash]

When will we find out the results?

When the cemeteries have finished voting.

[Franzl]

When will we find out the results?

When the cemeteries have finished voting.

I imagine that Chavez enjoys a pretty high approval among cemetery voters

[Hash]

When will we find out the results?

When the cemeteries have finished voting.

I imagine that Chavez enjoys a pretty high approval among cemetery voters

100%


On a serious note, some early exit polls leak give the NO a 3-5% vote lead. I think Venezuelan exit polls massively underestimate the cemetery and dead demographic.

[ag]

The referendum will be on whether to do away with presidential term limits.  It will be funny to see if long term US congressional office holders like Dingel, Waxman, Mccain, Pelosi, Hoyer, Kennedy and others find it a terrible idea inasmuch as they run on and on and on.

There is a big difference between presidential term limits and the legislative ones. Myself, I believe the presidential term limits to be indispensible, while I would fight tooth-and-nail against the legislative term limits: no contradiction whatsoever.

[ag]

In 4 minutes (6 PM local time) the entrance to the polling stations will close (all those in lines at that moment will still be allowed to vote).

[Daniel Adams]

Alí Rodríguez, Minister of Finances and member of the United Socialist Party leadership, has stated the "Yes" option has an "irreversible" lead, citing exit polls.

[ag]

This time there are some exit polls, though who knows what they are.

Here they are reporting the lead for "no"

http://alexismarrero.blogspot.com/

[ag]

Alí Rodríguez, Minister of Finances and member of the United Socialist Party leadership, has stated the "Yes" option has an "irreversible" lead, citing exit polls.

BTW, why do you have an old Georgian flag on (and not, say, the current version)?

[MaxQue]

So, Yes people publish exit polls than favors them and No people publish exit polls than favors them.

I'm not surprised.

[ag]

Just for comparison, here are the pre-voting polls. Quite a bit of divergence in opinion there as well:

http://eriksez.wordpress.com/2009/02/13/enmienda-2009-proyecciones-finales-de-encuestadoras-y-otros-15f/

[ag]

Both sides seem to be claiming exit poll victory, but, so far, it seems it is chavistas who start celebrating in the streets.

[ag]

If I am to believe this picture:

http://150209no.com/

For much of the day the No voters dominated the exit poll, but towards the end the Yes came up (given that the missing jungle areas are chavista, that particular result would seem to indicate Yes winning).

[ag]

W/ 40% of the Zulia state (not quite sure in which metric) reporting, the NO has 63.23% and the YES has 36.77%. Zulia, of course, is the hotbed of the opposition (though the NO is getting a slightly higher vote then the opposition governor at the last election). Still, I would guess the opposition would need more from Zulia to win.

[Kushahontas]

is there anywhere where i can get realtime results on this?

[ag]

is there anywhere where i can get realtime results on this?

Not really: only reports of "interested parties". The electoral commission (CNE) is, so far, silent.

BTW, I've goofed up in my previous post: Zulia only gave 57% to no in the 2007 referendum - so, if it is really 63% this time, it's a good sign for NO.

[ag]

As before, no oficial news, but the pro-government crowds (on cars) have shown up in Caracas, celebrating victory.

[Kushahontas]

may i ask where you're getting these figures? link plz?

[Daniel Adams]

Alí Rodríguez, Minister of Finances and member of the United Socialist Party leadership, has stated the "Yes" option has an "irreversible" lead, citing exit polls.

BTW, why do you have an old Georgian flag on (and not, say, the current version)?

This site, unfortunately, doesn't have the current Georgian flag.

[ag]

may i ask where you're getting these figures? link plz?

The 2007 results I am getting from the oficial web page of the CNE

http://www.cne.gov.ve/divulgacion_referendo_reforma/

There is nothing there (yet?) about today's result. Everything else is, as I have made clear, close to hearsay, taken from various blogs. The thing about 63% from Zulia comes from here:

http://alexismarrero.blogspot.com/

[Kushahontas]

thank you! apologies for redundancy

[Hash]

With 25% counted (I believe. or 35%), the NO leads 53.03-46.97.

I sincerely hope the NO prevails.

[MaxQue]

I sincerely hope the NO prevails.

Any sane person agree with you.