Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

lol@
http://blog.pennlive.com/politics/2009/04/the_founder_and_former_preside.html

This was posted and discussed days ago. 

[TeePee4Prez]

As to Toomey's electability, I think Phil and I would agree that it completely depends on Obama.  I have a list of freshman senators next Congressional session, and trust me, Sestak is on the list.

Not completely. I don't believe that Obama has to be a total failure for someone like Toomey to beat someone like Schwartz or Shapiro. Now Sestak would be a bit more difficult because he can disguise himself as (is) a moderate.

Now if Obama is looking to have a 2002 type midterm and GOP turnout sucks, yeah, all bets are basically off.

Maybe not total failure, but he has to be in far worse shape than he is now.  As for Sestak, he is a moderate- maybe not in the Ben Nelson mold, but IIRC the National Journal gave him a 65 liberal rating which places him in the moderate wing clearly.  I could not see Sestak losing to Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

I could not see Sestak losing to Toomey.

You don't see anyone losing to Toomey. You know nothing about the dynamics of the race and you're already basically calling a winner. I know you like to jump to gun with this stuff and get a little hysterical in general (see your signature) but, please, calm down.

And Sestak is not a moderate.

[TeePee4Prez]

I could not see Sestak losing to Toomey.

You don't see anyone losing to Toomey. You know nothing about the dynamics of the race and you're already basically calling a winner. I know you like to jump to gun with this stuff and get a little hysterical in general (see your signature) but, please, calm down.

And Sestak is not a moderate.

Before you denounce me as a partisan hack, I just want to say that I will give Toomey a possible victory against Schwartz or Shapiro, but the odds are stacked against him.  This is Pennsylvania, not South Carolina and Toomey is pretty much the equivalent of Jim DeMint (I'll say Toomey's a hair more moderate) and Inez Tenenbaum gave him a run for his money in a far more conservative state.  In most (saner) states, Inez Tenenbaum would have probably demolished Jim DeMint- Pennsylvania included.

[Keystone Phil]

I could not see Sestak losing to Toomey.

You don't see anyone losing to Toomey. You know nothing about the dynamics of the race and you're already basically calling a winner. I know you like to jump to gun with this stuff and get a little hysterical in general (see your signature) but, please, calm down.

And Sestak is not a moderate.

Before you denounce me as a partisan hack, I just want to say that I will give Toomey a possible victory against Schwartz or Shapiro, but the odds are stacked against him.  This is Pennsylvania, not South Carolina and Toomey is pretty much the equivalent of Jim DeMint (I'll say Toomey's a hair more moderate) and Inez Tenenbaum gave him a run for his money in a far more conservative state.  In most (saner) states, Inez Tenenbaum would have probably demolished Jim DeMint- Pennsylvania included.

And Shapiro and Schwartz are left of your standard liberal (Shapiro doesn't really shy away from that while Schwartz plays this "moderate" game).

If you had turnout like 2008, yeah, I'd give the race to someone like Schwartz or Shapiro. You won't though.

[Lunar]

Labor's not giving up on Specter

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/24/unions-see-specter-openin_n_191192.html

[Keystone Phil]

Labor's not giving up on Specter

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/24/unions-see-specter-openin_n_191192.html

And he'll only go for it if he switches, which he won't do now. He'd look far too desperate.

By the way, five years ago today...






The closest call of Specter's career.

[Torie]

Labor's not giving up on Specter

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/24/unions-see-specter-openin_n_191192.html

If Specter switches back to the dark side on card check, he will indeed look like a total unprincipled vote whore. That I think would effect beyond per adventure his  political destruction. He's crossed the Rubicon, and will drown if he tries to swim back.

[Lunar]

http://thehill.com/content/view/81929/70/1/0/

Damn I just skimmed it but it looks like Specter has some damn good friends in Journalism still, this guy at a glance, seems to be trying to cast Toomey as a social libertarian and Specter as the guy who's really willing to listen to conservatives..

[Keystone Phil]

http://thehill.com/content/view/81929/70/1/0/

Damn I just skimmed it but it looks like Specter has some damn good friends in Journalism still, this guy at a glance, seems to be trying to cast Toomey as a social libertarian and Specter as the guy who's really willing to listen to conservatives..

Ok so Specter is "good enough" for us because he supported two nominees that were also supported by liberals and he decided to "reach out" to conservative leaders on a personal level. Oh! And Specter threw in some pork for abstinence!

Right. That's grand.

The funny thing is that even I don't support abstinence only education so Specter trying to whore himself out on that issue makes him look even worse. This guy is all over the place and only makes him look worse. He kissed up to conservative groups because he knew this rematch was coming. He's been expecting it since five years ago today. A few leaders of these groups might say some nice things about Specter but the group members won't be getting on the Arlen Express.

Let Specter try to paint Toomey as a social libertarian. Then we'll compare the records and see whose the solid social conservative and whose a pandering whore.

[Lunar]

That article is pretending to be objective, right?  It's not an editorial...?  I didn't see the fact that Specter is pro-choice and Toomey is pro-life mentioned, just a bunch of quotes from pro-Specter conservatives talking about how great Specter is...

and paragraphs that begin and end with unchallenged statements such as "Specter has championed other issues dear to conservatives both social and fiscal. "

[Rowan]

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning.

Specter's decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken is eventually sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota. (Former Sen. Norm Coleman is appealing Franken's victory in the state Supreme Court.)

"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary," said Specter in a statement. "I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/specter-to-switch-parties.html

[Lunar]

lol!  WHAT ABOUT EFCA?
  I guess he'll just support a compromise?


.  Now the Democrats will already have 60 so every Republican incumbent can't faux-claim to be the difference between a blank check and a balance of powers.

[Meeker]

Hahahahhhaha

Love ya Arlen

[Keystone Phil]

That article is pretending to be objective, right?  It's not an editorial...?  I didn't see the fact that Specter is pro-choice and Toomey is pro-life mentioned, just a bunch of quotes from pro-Specter conservatives talking about how great Specter is...

Listen, I couldn't care less if the article is biased. It's not influencing anyone. It's a newspaper written for those in the Beltway/politicos like ourselves.

Toomey's campaign was able to get out its conservative message in 2004 despite the money and big name endorsement disadvantages and just barely lost. He wasn't that well known and had to compete with Bush and Santorum - the two heroes of Pennsylvania conservatives - and their respective organizations every step of the way. I have no doubt that he will easily overcome Arlen this time around. Stuff like this won't mean much of anything.

If Arlen Specter wants to play "Whose more conservative? Whose more respected by conservatives?" he's seriously lost his political mind. It might have made sense to do something like that against a challenger like Gerlach but not Toomey.

[Lunar]

it's irrelevant now!

[Rowan]

I'd love to see a Specter/Toomey head to head right now. I'd gander it'd be pretty damn close.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh so shocking! 

[Lunar]

Advocates of these two issues are pure vote counters.  Labor especially doesn't give a crap who said what when.

[Lunar]

Labor's not giving up on Specter

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/24/unions-see-specter-openin_n_191192.html

And he'll only go for it if he switches, which he won't do now. He'd look far too desperate.

I guess this story was more significant of an indicator than we gave it credit for.  One of the unions leaked the story to build up pressure for him to switch I assume

[Keystone Phil]

Labor's not giving up on Specter

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/24/unions-see-specter-openin_n_191192.html

And he'll only go for it if he switches, which he won't do now. He'd look far too desperate.

I guess this story was more significant of an indicator than we gave it credit for.  One of the unions leaked the story to build up pressure for him to switch I assume

Franzl said he's still refusing to support Card Check! Either way, this is great!

[Lunar]

As I've said before, he can always claim he opposed the bill, as it was.. and support some slightly or moderately compromised version of it.  Hell, even Roland Burris won't say how he stands on the current bill... it's going to emerge modified.


this is 5% noble too
[quote]
Upon request, I will return campaign contributions contributed during this cycle.

[Keystone Phil]

And he'll still be seen as a spineless flip flopper.

[Lunar]

And he'll still be seen as a spineless flip flopper.

Not by labor and anti-labor interests, they only count votes at this point, not ideology... and they're the people who care the most about the issue.

[Keystone Phil]

And he'll still be seen as a spineless flip flopper.

Not by labor and anti-labor interests, they only count votes at this point, not ideology... and they're the people who care the most about the issue.

It's an issue that can be used to win over undecided voters in the General.