Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/20090506_John_Baer__Ridge_said_to_be_eyeing_Senate_seat__But__why_.html


The 1991 Special election is a perfect example of someone running who doesn't want it.

Another reason Ridge will probably be scared away - the idea that the GOP will still be in the minority in 2011. He doesn't want it to begin with so I really doubt he'll want to be a minority Senator.

[Lunar]

The bigshot people really don't want Toomey, it's interesting.

Ironically where were these assholes when Ridge was McCain's preference for VP?

[Badger]

Secondly, someone had posted an article here previously detailing Sestak's absolutely atrocious relationship with staffers stemming from his running his office like boot camp 52 weeks a year. Even accounting for his military command background (hardly the only one in Congress) and the pros to a hardcore "my way or the highway" management style, if even half the article was true then Sestak is still in a class all his own.

Competent congressmen are relatively rare. Sestak's management style should be encouraged on the Hill, imo- if those people have to work like the rest of us, maybe they'll start getting things done.

<Keystone Phil also said:>

"I find it hilarious that some people are using Sestak's supposed strict management style as an excuse for their skepticism when Arlen Specter is notoriously one of the biggest pricks in Washington, DC when it comes to dealing with his staff. They had pins made up that said "Arlen Specter yelled at me." "

Here's the article:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/rep.-sestaks-staffers-keep-jumping-ship-2007-09-04.html

Like I said, this goes WAAYYY beyond "hard-driving taskmaster". The article indicates Sestak's management style was even too much for the Navy to put up with. Yes, Specter is a notorious SOB to his staffers, but he's apparently tempered it enough with enough respect and loyalty that, to my knowledge, he hasn't had a problem with rampant turnover.

That said, there are 2 reasons I'm not quite as concerned as before: First the article's older than I remembered (over 18 months). Considering he was reelected in a swing/lean Dem district by almost 20 points, any staff problems Sestak has had apparently haven't much affected his office's functions or constituent services. Perhaps he's since found a workable management style that keeps staff from chronically fleeing.

Secondly, this relatively minor issue is being quickly overtaken by events. What is Specter doing?!? I expected that after a brief period of public showcasing opposition to Obama to reinforce his credentials as an independent moderate, he would start generally supporting his agenda by (e.g.) supported EFCA in a modified form, voting against issues after voting (where it counts) for cloture, and generally being somewhat more progressive in his voting record. It would work, too. If he could become comparable to a pro-choice Casey he'd have no serious challenge to reelection.

Instead Specter has worked overtime to aggressively burn bridges with the base since switching. Some of this isn't even a matter of avoiding charges of flip-flopping on an issue. "I support Coleman"?!? "I regret voting against confirming Jeff Sessions to the federal bench"?!? My God, could the guy go any further out of his way to (key word) needlessly piss off the netsroots?

Like most Democrats, I was willing to give Specter some time to grandstand opposition to Obama and Reid to reinforce his independent bona fides with voters and shift leftwards in his voting later--and still am for now. But his headlong drift rightward since switching and picking fights with the base have drastically worn people's patience within only a single week.

[Keystone Phil]

The bigshot people really don't want Toomey, it's interesting.

Ironically where were these assholes when Ridge was McCain's preference for VP?

Uh...they wanted him as McCain's running mate because they were totally convinced that he'd win the state for McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, Specter is a notorious SOB to his staffers, but he's apparently tempered it enough with enough respect and loyalty that, to my knowledge, he hasn't had a problem with rampant turnover.

Well, he hasn't had rampant turnover because he's Arlen Specter. Even if he's a total asshole, it's still a big deal to work for him.

 

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He just loves pushing buttons. Loves it.

[Lunar]

he does, but usually not when facing competitive primaries


He doesn't usually start shifting liberally on his positions when Toomey shows up, eh?

[Lunar]

The bigshot people really don't want Toomey, it's interesting.

Ironically where were these assholes when Ridge was McCain's preference for VP?

Uh...they wanted him as McCain's running mate because they were totally convinced that he'd win the state for McCain.

Not the national establishment, hah.

[Purple State]

Realistically, if Arlen keeps this up until a year before the primary, and then suddenly flips, will it matter? Would he lose the primary?

[Keystone Phil]

The bigshot people really don't want Toomey, it's interesting.

Ironically where were these assholes when Ridge was McCain's preference for VP?

Uh...they wanted him as McCain's running mate because they were totally convinced that he'd win the state for McCain.

Not the national establishment, hah.

Oh, I thought you were talking about the PA establishment.

Realistically, if Arlen keeps this up until a year before the primary, and then suddenly flips, will it matter? Would he lose the primary?

Flips to what? Republican?

The man wouldn't get more than 20%. I'm serious.

[Lunar]

If he starts polling 15% behind Sestak, would he try Indie?

[Keystone Phil]

If he starts polling 15% behind Sestak, would he try Indie?

LOL

Sure, why not?

[Badger]

BREAKING:

Democrats strip Arlen of his seniority until 2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/05/AR2009050504344.html?hpid=topnews



I guess they don't like his antics

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At the risk of sounding like Chicken Little, that's big. I have little doubt the promise was indeed made for Specter to keep his seniority. Riddle me this Atlasians: How much of Reid's apparent backstab was his folding to pressure (as Reid is wont to do) from the Democratic caucus who resented losing chairmanships/seniority to a party switcher, and how much of this was a shot across Arlen's bow resulting from Specter's (mis)conduct since switching? If the latter, is it possible Reid would've taken this step without privately making an ultimatum to Specter first? I don't see how not. And if we assume that, does this mean Specter refused comitting support to Reid's satisfaction?

If the former, it's just rubber-spine Reid being Reid. To the extent it's the latter, that's indicative that Arlen's snubbing the Democrats has not just teed off the netroots, but now the party leadership as well. If that happens, Specter is in serious risk of politically isolating himself and being out of a job next year.

Or am I just reading too much into this?

[Badger]

Yes, Specter is a notorious SOB to his staffers, but he's apparently tempered it enough with enough respect and loyalty that, to my knowledge, he hasn't had a problem with rampant turnover.

Well, he hasn't had rampant turnover because he's Arlen Specter. Even if he's a total asshole, it's still a big deal to work for him.

More so than it is to work for any the other 99 senators? I'm genuinely asking as you're more connected with PA politics than I am.

[Purple State]

Realistically, if Arlen keeps this up until a year before the primary, and then suddenly flips, will it matter? Would he lose the primary?

Flips to what? Republican?

The man wouldn't get more than 20%. I'm serious.

No flips to actually supporting Democratic initiatives. How long can he continue to piss the Dem base off without losing the primary?

[Keystone Phil]

Yes, Specter is a notorious SOB to his staffers, but he's apparently tempered it enough with enough respect and loyalty that, to my knowledge, he hasn't had a problem with rampant turnover.

Well, he hasn't had rampant turnover because he's Arlen Specter. Even if he's a total asshole, it's still a big deal to work for him.

More so than it is to work for any the other 99 senators? I'm genuinely asking as you're more connected with PA politics than I am.

It's Arlen Specter. He's one of the biggest deals in the Senate. You can't tell me that working for someone like Kay Hagan means as much as working for Specter or Kennedy or Byrd or McConnell...

[Keystone Phil]

Realistically, if Arlen keeps this up until a year before the primary, and then suddenly flips, will it matter? Would he lose the primary?

Flips to what? Republican?

The man wouldn't get more than 20%. I'm serious.

No flips to actually supporting Democratic initiatives. How long can he continue to piss the Dem base off without losing the primary?

I think he's already seriously pissing them off. We'll have to wait and see but it's not looking good.

[Brittain33]

I've got it. Specter's strategy is to look like such a loser that Schwartz, Torsella, and a bunch of other Dems also get into the primary, splitting the anyone-but-Arlen vote so that he coasts to the finish line with his cash and party support.

[Lunar]

I've got it. Specter's strategy is to look like such a loser that Schwartz, Torsella, and a bunch of other Dems also get into the primary, splitting the anyone-but-Arlen vote so that he coasts to the finish line with his cash and party support.

don't forget to piss off Obama and the rest of the establishment to the extent they don't actively campaign for him

[Lunar]

as I told Phil, I think Arlen should just STOP doing interviews.    He already has maximum name recognition, all he's going to do is answer questions about his party switch and positional flip-flopping, while making the occasional gaffes, giving ad fodder to his enemies and driving down his popularity worse.

What's the point? 

DING DING DING, I'm the winner best campaign strategist ever and someone on Specter's campaign reads my posts

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0509/Specter_scraps_Larry_King_appearance.html

[HappyWarrior]

By the way, did anyone hear about this?  If its already been posted I appologize.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22180.html

Apparently the party has stripped him of his senority, the sole reason he had to win the primary in my mind.

[HappyWarrior]

quoted at the top of this page

Sorry, my bad

[TeePee4Prez]

By the way, did anyone hear about this?  If its already been posted I appologize.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22180.html

Apparently the party has stripped him of his senority, the sole reason he had to win the primary in my mind.

That said, why the hell doesn't he announce his retirement?  He should just do us all and the state of Pennsylvania a favor and bow out so he can spend time with his grandkids.  All he's doing in the political realm is pissing off both parties and digging a deeper hole for himself.  Yes, I originally thought switching was his best move.  He should have come clean and said "Look, I voted against cloture for EFCA under pressure from the far right of the party", taken it like a man and came clean.  I would have forgave him.  Instead, he's pussyfooting around trying to sell us a bill of goods like he did the GOP.

[HappyWarrior]

By the way, did anyone hear about this?  If its already been posted I appologize.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22180.html

Apparently the party has stripped him of his senority, the sole reason he had to win the primary in my mind.

That said, why the hell doesn't he announce his retirement?  He should just do us all and the state of Pennsylvania a favor and bow out so he can spend time with his grandkids.  All he's doing in the political realm is pissing off both parties and digging a deeper hole for himself.  Yes, I originally thought switching was his best move.  He should have come clean and said "Look, I voted against cloture for EFCA under pressure from the far right of the party", taken it like a man and came clean.  I would have forgave him.  Instead, he's pussyfooting around trying to sell us a bill of goods like he did the GOP.

I am in total agreement.  I am personally supporting Sestak.  I think making a deal was stupid and we need to secure the votes for EFCA.

[TeePee4Prez]

By the way, did anyone hear about this?  If its already been posted I appologize.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22180.html

Apparently the party has stripped him of his senority, the sole reason he had to win the primary in my mind.

That said, why the hell doesn't he announce his retirement?  He should just do us all and the state of Pennsylvania a favor and bow out so he can spend time with his grandkids.  All he's doing in the political realm is pissing off both parties and digging a deeper hole for himself.  Yes, I originally thought switching was his best move.  He should have come clean and said "Look, I voted against cloture for EFCA under pressure from the far right of the party", taken it like a man and came clean.  I would have forgave him.  Instead, he's pussyfooting around trying to sell us a bill of goods like he did the GOP.

I am in total agreement.  I am personally supporting Sestak.  I think making a deal was stupid and we need to secure the votes for EFCA.

And I think the field should be cleared for Sestak, not Specter.  Allyson Schwartz, while a great Congresswoman and fundraiser would likely struggle outside of SEPA.  Pat Murphy while impressive in Congress and young is just that- too young and inexperienced plus Bucks County was McCain's best suburban county with a still deep local GOP bench while then Dems are shallow there.  In PA 7, Bryan Lentz, who is very similar to Sestak, would likely hold the seat for the Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm sure you guys have seen it...

www.SpecterForTheCure.com


And the contributions to the site...go to his campaign.

The man is scum. I really can't say anything else.