Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

One thing I find odd though, Gerlach isn't much more to the right than Specter which brings me to my next question- Would you support Gerlach over Santorum/Toomey in a primary? 

Gerlach is certainly to the right of Specter and of course I'd support Santorum or Toomey (political heroes of mine) over Gerlach but I wouldn't be pissed off with who won anyway.

If Gerlach runs, PA 6 does become a toss up but I like our chances in a midterm. Plus, look at the crop of candidates the Dems are talking about - http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_88/politics/32323-1.html  That's not a strong list (with the exception of Dinniman and he'll still be hesitant to run).

Oh this would be ideal for me. I have always liked Gerlach primarilly for his ability to survive. I suggested in another site back in 2007 that Gerlach would be strong candidate for higher office preferably as Senator.

[Keystone Phil]

I posted this in the other Specter thread but wanted my thoughts on Joe Torsella here as well...



Torsella is a very interesting candidate. As was mentioned, he barely lost to Schwartz in 2004 but that was a race he was supposed to win. He's been somewhat of a force on the local scene but he doesn't have much of a base. If it's Schwartz vs. Torsella vs. Shapiro, Torsella will likely be the Philly machine candidate (but, as I have learned in this city, the insane number of factions and petty feuds that start up within the blink of an eye may change that). He also appeals to Dems in my area (the more populist types though he really isn't a populist) which would get him strong support in NE Philly, South Philly (the Italian thing would be huge down there, too. I'd love to see the results afterwards) and lower Bucks.

If it's just those three, Torsella also runs well out west, in NE PA and in the center of the state. His problem is that that's not where these primaries are won. He'd need insane numbers out of NE Philly and South Philly to compete with Schwartz (who will also have pull in NE Philly especially the Jewish areas and the more progressive areas of the city) and Shapiro (who will basically split Montco and others of the SE with Schwartz).

What Torsella would need to hope for is Schwartz and Shapiro splitting the vote to a great enough extent. There's a chance that they split the same base and still beat Torsella's numbers elsewhere. We'll have to see though. Torsella also really needs to hope that Wagner stays out. It also needs to be mentioned that Torsella is from Flourtown in Montco - an affluent community not far from the city. He, too, will get support from areas that would traditionally go for a Schwartz or Shapiro type candidate.

----

It's also worth mentioning that I really think the forum progressives should look into Shapiro. I know a bit about him for other reasons but simple research would let anyone in on the fact that this guy is basically another Rahm Emanuel and the Democratic Aaron Schock. He's very liberal and would be a real headache for Republicans (one reason why I compared him to Rahm) but he's a stand up guy and a hard worker. I can't say that I'd ever vote for him but I also can't say that I'll ever question his work ethic and campaign skills.

His district is mostly Abington Township in Montco (an area that I have mentioned before) which has been a RINOish area of Montco. He won in 2004, beating former PA 13 Republican Congressman Jon Fox by double digits. He was easily re-elected in 2006 (with 75% of the vote) in a district that still has a GOP registration plurality. In 2008, he ran for both the Democratic and Republican nominations and received both without contest. Like I said, this is a RINOish area (still economically conservative though) but to win the nomination without contest is very impressive.

[Keystone Phil]

Hahaha...the possible 2010 preview - Schwartz vs. Shapiro on FOX News debating Hillary and Obama - http://www.joshshapiro.org/media/Shapiro_FOX_03-30-08_320x240.html

I'd love to see these two be the only Dem candidates for the seat in 2010. That would be a real dog fight.

[Lunar]

Shapiro certainly seems 110% more sane in that video while Schwartz seems really, um, conniving.  Thanks for that video, I'll remember that she seems like an openly disingenuous politician.  Not that that matters.

I spent 2.5 hours today watching a focus group of 13 conducted in the summer of 08 in York, PA, and I have to write a 10 page paper on these cats, one of whom was amusingly predicting mass race riots and others of whom were predicting Obama aggressively advancing the "black agenda." Even though they knew they were being broadcasted live on CSPAN.

I of course came back to this forum about this time starting a thread about why Hillary had already lost the nomination but Obama couldn't admit it, Hillary wouldn't admit it, and the media didn't want to admit it for financial gain.  But these people were hilarious.  nervously: "Obama claims he's a Christian and I have to take him as his word"

[Keystone Phil]

The PA GOP Chairman (a Specter ally) is openly entertaining the idea that the State Committee might not even back Specter, reminding us that it's up to the committee members - http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/02/steele-rnc-open-to-limiting-support-to-specter.html


This is the way it's been but for Gleason to openly comment like this means that Specter has probably hit his dead end. Good riddance. Without State Committee, Specter has a 1% chance at winning. Yes, 1%. That's his only benefit in a 2010 primary.

[Keystone Phil]

81% of PA GOP primary voters oppose Card Check - http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/EFCA_poll_2_2009.pdf

Starting to really feel the pressure, Arlen?

[Keystone Phil]

The one candidate we all thought was a sure thing is very hesitant - http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20090226_John_Baer__A_Senate_run_for_Allyson_Schwartz__Don_t_think_so.html


Irey approached to take on Specter - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/papoliticsblog/show_comments.php?entry_id=4026

Irey would be amazing. She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections), is from the "right" area of the state and she attends the woman factor into a GOP primary. I'd love for her to run. She'd be top tier, by the way.

[Brittain33]

She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections),

I'm curious how you judge the success of her race in 2006. I didn't see anything firsthand--only the Free Republican reaction and promotion. I don't fault her too much for getting crushed by Murtha, obviously he was impossible to beat that year.

[Keystone Phil]

She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections),

I'm curious how you judge the success of her race in 2006. I didn't see anything firsthand--only the Free Republican reaction and promotion. I don't fault her too much for getting crushed by Murtha, obviously he was impossible to beat that year.

I think she hit 40%. That's good for us there (against Murtha) especially in 2006.

She built herself a nice network. It would be close to perfect for a statewide race.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So is Specter going down?

[Keystone Phil]

     So is Specter going down?

If Irey runs? Yeah, pretty much.

[TeePee4Prez]

She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections),

I'm curious how you judge the success of her race in 2006. I didn't see anything firsthand--only the Free Republican reaction and promotion. I don't fault her too much for getting crushed by Murtha, obviously he was impossible to beat that year.

I think she hit 40%. That's good for us there (against Murtha) especially in 2006.

She built herself a nice network. It would be close to perfect for a statewide race.

Well, she would get a few free points with her looks.

[Lunar]

     So is Specter going down?

If Irey runs? Yeah, pretty much.

You seem eerily confident of Specter being successfully primaried for all of your posts about uncertainty in the 2012 board

[Keystone Phil]

     So is Specter going down?

If Irey runs? Yeah, pretty much.

You seem eerily confident of Specter being successfully primaried for all of your posts about uncertainty in the 2012 board

Apples and oranges, my friend, and you know it.

Sure, there is a chance that Specter doesn't get a top tier opponent and people see him as our only chance at keeping the seat. However, things clearly aren't in his favor (party registration numbers, the two people that saved him not being around anymore, extreme anger from the base on top of the reasons that they already can't stand him), this race isn't prone to drastic swings like a Presidential race, etc.

[Keystone Phil]

Give him a big kiss next time, Arlen.

[TeePee4Prez]

Give him a big kiss next time, Arlen.

Biden's got a MILF.. pushing GILF of a wife.  I think he might turn Arlen down.

[Tender Branson]

Is Specter toast ?

HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.

The numbers might reflect Specter's vote as one of three Republican senators who enabled passage of President Obama's $787 billion federal stimulus package, said James Lee, president of Harrisburg-based Susquehanna polling. But they reflect long-standing dissatisfaction among Republican conservatives with Specter's record, he said.

If the election were held today, "in a two-person race, Specter is toast" if his challenger is a credible candidate, Lee said. A race with more candidates likely would improve Specter's chances of winning.

"The senator never comments on polls," said Specter spokeswoman Kate Kelly. "There is only one that counts."

The poll surveyed 700 registered voters from Monday through Thursday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_613850.html

[TeePee4Prez]

Is Specter toast ?

HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.

The numbers might reflect Specter's vote as one of three Republican senators who enabled passage of President Obama's $787 billion federal stimulus package, said James Lee, president of Harrisburg-based Susquehanna polling. But they reflect long-standing dissatisfaction among Republican conservatives with Specter's record, he said.

If the election were held today, "in a two-person race, Specter is toast" if his challenger is a credible candidate, Lee said. A race with more candidates likely would improve Specter's chances of winning.

"The senator never comments on polls," said Specter spokeswoman Kate Kelly. "There is only one that counts."

The poll surveyed 700 registered voters from Monday through Thursday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_613850.html

I keep telling some Republicans.  This is why they should renominate Specter.  His voting record isn't all that liberal.  Most of us know another Republican won't get anywhere near 49 percent of Democrats supporting them.  Pick Santorum that number will be single digits, low teens at best amongst Democrats, 80-85 percent Republicans, and 35 percent Indies.. maybe.    Still not enough to win the state as a whole.  Pat Toomey.. ehh, a little bit higher.

[Keystone Phil]

Is Specter toast ?

HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

LOL

Bye!

[Ronnie]

I'm certainly not rooting for Specter anymore, especially since he voted for the Stimulus.  If he had not voted for it, the Democrats would be inclined to cut huge amounts of waste that's hiding in the bill to attract his vote.

Who can we nominate, though?  Charlie Dent would be a good candidate, but I don't want us to lose another house seat.

[Lunar]

I'm looking forward to this.  Primarying moderates in centrist/lean-the-other-way electorates has such a proven track record.  Part of the reason why Specter is in danger is because of the dwindling number of registered Republicans in the state.  After that, I think it's the Independents that like it the most when a more extreme politician primaries their Senator. I like how the Independents don't vote for the other party in this scenario.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm looking forward to this.  Primarying moderates in centrist/lean-the-other-way electorates has such a proven track record.

Except the moderate Republicans aren't even thrilled with him anymore.

[Keystone Phil]

So I was at a meeting tonight with some people. One of the guys there is someone "on the inside" with the party. Here's what he told me...

Apparently, Specter and Toomey made a deal. Toomey would run for Governor with Arlen's backing to keep him out of the Senate race.

This is crazy for two reasons: 1) Toomey getting Specter's backing (even if not publicly) is an anchor. 2) This would mean Specter would be endorsing Toomey over one of his former employees, Pat Meehan.

Now here's whay it's possibly true...

As we know, Arlen is all about Arlen. It's not too crazy to think that he'd stick it to someone that used to be close to him in order to save himself. It's also possibly true because the person I heard it from heard it from someone in the story that really has no reason to lie about this. Of course, as it passed through the grapevine, the "deal" could have gotten blown out of proportion.

I just don't know that Toomey would ever want Specter's backing in a primary. If it's true, it's about as much proof as you can get that Specter is all about himself.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So I was at a meeting tonight with some people. One of the guys there is someone "on the inside" with the party. Here's what he told me...

Apparently, Specter and Toomey made a deal. Toomey would run for Governor with Arlen's backing to keep him out of the Senate race.

This is crazy for two reasons: 1) Toomey getting Specter's backing (even if not publicly) is an anchor. 2) This would mean Specter would be endorsing Toomey over one of his former employees, Pat Meehan.

Now here's whay it's possibly true...

As we know, Arlen is all about Arlen. It's not too crazy to think that he'd stick it to someone that used to be close to him in order to save himself. It's also possibly true because the person I heard it from heard it from someone in the story that really has no reason to lie about this. Of course, as it passed through the grapevine, the "deal" could have gotten blown out of proportion.

I just don't know that Toomey would ever want Specter's backing in a primary. If it's true, it's about as much proof as you can get that Specter is all about himself.

What I don't get is why would Toomey except such a deal? His chances in either race are the same in the general and he has a better shot in the primary of taking down Specter then he does taking on Corbett and the West as whole, while the rest of the state is split.

[Keystone Phil]

What I don't get is why would Toomey except such a deal? His chances in either race are the same in the general and he has a better shot in the primary of taking down Specter then he does taking on Corbett and the West as whole, while the rest of the state is split.

Like I said, there is a lot in this "deal" that doesn't make sense but don't just look at it in terms of his chances in either race (though his chances in a General for Governor are probably better than his chances in a Senate race). There have been other things that I've heard from other people (people closer to Toomey on a personal level).

Luckily, these same people are saying that we ought to bet on Pat running for the Senate now.    That's awesome for the obvious reasons but it also means that I can support the other Pat as my first choice for Governor now. 

Toomey - Meehan for Pennsylvania in 2010!