Prediction thread: List of swing voters on economic stimulus
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Author Topic: Prediction thread: List of swing voters on economic stimulus  (Read 2765 times)
Ronnie
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« on: February 06, 2009, 06:46:39 PM »
« edited: February 06, 2009, 07:45:53 PM by Ronnie »
My *tentative* predictions:


Susan Collins - YEA (confirmed)
Olympia Snowe - YEA (confirmed)
Kit Bond - NAY
George Voinovich - NAY
Arlen Specter - YEA (confirmed)
Ben Nelson - YEA (confirmed)
Mark Warner - YEA
Mary Landrieu - YEA
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 06:48:32 PM »
Susan Collins - NAY YEA
Olympia Snowe - NAY YEA
Kit Bond - NAY
George Voinovich - YEA NAY
Arlen Specter - YEA
Ben Nelson - YEA
Mark Warner - YEA
Mary Landrieu - YEA
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2009, 06:52:28 PM »
Susan Collins - NAY YEA NAY
Olympia Snowe - NAY YEA
Kit Bond - NAY
George Voinovich - YEA NAY
Arlen Specter - YEA
Ben Nelson - YEA
Mark Warner - YEA
Mary Landrieu - YEA
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2009, 06:53:00 PM »
I wouldn't be so sure about the Maine senators, Franzl.  They have both said that they would not support the house bill under any circumstance...whether they are content with the scrubbing that Obama has worked on, I am not so sure.

I am getting to the point, however, that there is a greater possibility that Snowe will vote against the bill, and Collins will vote for it.  I'll be cautiously optimistic and say that they will both vote against it.
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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2009, 06:55:58 PM »
How do you figure that Voinovich will vote YEA, Ronnie?

I think both Maine girls are toss-ups, actually, but I tend to think they'll both support it.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 06:58:12 PM »
Aaah, thanks for catching that, Franzl.  I meant to put Voinovich as nay.
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Franzl
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 07:00:04 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on February 06, 2009, 06:58:12 PM
Aaah, thanks for catching that, Franzl.  I meant to put Voinovich as nay.

OK, looked kind of weird to me...thinking that the Maine senators would vote against it while Voinovich was in favor. Smiley
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 07:00:40 PM »
Collins was one of the key voices in the compromise team, she wanted 90 billion eliminated and Rahm did it, I can't see her and Snowe not voting for it.

As of now, Ronnie, your list doesn't have the bill passing since Franken isn't there and Kennedy probably won't be
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 07:02:20 PM »
Eh, I'm not so sure that it will pass, but we'll see.  They should vote very soon.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 07:04:03 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on February 06, 2009, 07:02:20 PM
Eh, I'm not so sure that it will pass, but we'll see.  They should vote very soon.

“We have a deal” said one official, and Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Arlen Specter (R-Penn.), who were central to the negotiations, were expected to speak on the floor Friday night.


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18508.html
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Ronnie
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 07:06:11 PM »
I see...
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Franzl
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 07:09:25 PM »
my full and final prediction:

YEA: 60 (DEMs + Specter, Snowe, Collins)
NAY: 37
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 07:10:19 PM »
Don't Dems just need 59 votes to pass this?
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Lunar
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 07:10:59 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on February 06, 2009, 07:10:19 PM
Don't Dems just need 59 votes to pass this?

No, the 2/3rds thing rounds upwards, they need 60 for the cloture
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2009, 07:13:56 PM »
Lunar, I need more convincing that Snowe will vote for it as well.  She was not directly involved with the negotiations, and seemed reluctant to vote for it the last time I saw her speak on the floor on CSPAN.

I have a feeling that Snowe will change her vote from Nay to Yay throughout the voting...just a gut feeling.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2009, 07:16:29 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on February 06, 2009, 07:13:56 PM
Lunar, I need more convincing that Snowe will vote for it as well.  She was not directly involved with the negotiations, and seemed reluctant to vote for it the last time I saw her speak on the floor on CSPAN.

I have a feeling that Snowe will change her vote from Nay to Yay throughout the voting...just a gut feeling.

Maybe, I can't see her voting to the right of Collins and it's not like McConnell can give her some plum committee spot for being loyal.  I don't know her psychology or anything though, you could be right.

Somebody's gotta change their vote from no to yay if there is in fact a deal (as there seems to be). 

It wouldn't surprise me to see this passing with something like 64 or more votes once it's apparent it's going to pass
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2009, 07:19:15 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on February 06, 2009, 07:16:29 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on February 06, 2009, 07:13:56 PM
Lunar, I need more convincing that Snowe will vote for it as well.  She was not directly involved with the negotiations, and seemed reluctant to vote for it the last time I saw her speak on the floor on CSPAN.

I have a feeling that Snowe will change her vote from Nay to Yay throughout the voting...just a gut feeling.

Maybe, I can't see her voting to the right of Collins and it's not like McConnell can give her some plum committee spot for being loyal.  I don't know her psychology or anything though, you could be right.

Somebody's gotta change their vote from no to yay if there is in fact a deal (as there seems to be). 

It wouldn't surprise me to see this passing with something like 64 or more votes once it's apparent it's going to pass


Specter may vote for it.  The ME sisters will.  Otherwise, the only ones that will vote for it will be retiring, if they do actually vote for it.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2009, 07:21:06 PM »
Who could possibly switch their votes so that it would get to 64 votes?  There's no way people like Kay Bailey Hutchison or Lisa Murkowski will for the bill.  Perhaps Kit Bond or George Voinovich will vote for it if it seems like it will get to 61 votes or something, but it doesn't seem likely to me.
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Lunar
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2009, 07:24:01 PM »
Perhaps I'm exaggerating with that high of a number, especially because I'm not sure if Ted will be there, but I think the votes are there

Too bad Obama couldn't arm-wrestle Gregg to vote on it
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Ronnie
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2009, 07:25:19 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on February 06, 2009, 07:24:01 PM
Perhaps I'm exaggerating with that high of a number, especially because I'm not sure if Ted will be there, but I think the votes are there.

I heard that Ted will vote for it on RCP a little while ago.
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2009, 07:28:39 PM »
Are we even sure that the vote will definitely happen tonight?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2009, 07:29:16 PM »
I hear that it's Collins and Specter.  Kinda surprised about Specter - this is the type of thing that is likely to inspire Republicans to challenge him.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2009, 07:30:47 PM »
Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on February 06, 2009, 07:28:39 PM
Are we even sure that the vote will definitely happen tonight?

I am almost 100% sure, yes.
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Lunar
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« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2009, 07:31:17 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on February 06, 2009, 07:29:16 PM
I hear that it's Collins and Specter.  Kinda surprised about Specter - this is the type of thing that is likely to inspire Republicans to challenge him.

Just them?  Mm, guess it will scrape by after all, my bad.

It shows that Specter is more worried about the general than the primary - and the stimulus is likely relatively popular in Pennsylvania?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2009, 07:32:08 PM »
I knew that Snowe would vote against it. Smiley

Obviously, it was just the opposite of what I expected it to be.

I don't know for sure, though. Sad
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