Mexican state and local elections 2009

[ag]

Very intesresting ! Your last paragraph is very laughable !

It's, actually, a sad commentary, coming from a free-marketeer that I am

[big bad fab]

Very intesresting ! Your last paragraph is very laughable !

It's, actually, a sad commentary, coming from a free-marketeer that I am

Oh, from a strict "political show" viewpoint, it's laughable.

I agree with you on the heart of the question: only different forms of paternalisms and sort-of-corporatisms as political offer, it's a bit sad.

But it's so interesting and fascinating from a study viewpoint, as Peronism through the ages is absolutely wonderful to study... but I'm not at all a Peronist, far from it !

[ag]

Just before the deadline for publishing polls (I believe, it started yesterday), there were a few interesting local polls in Reforma. To make the long story short, most of it (with the exception of Nuevo Leon governorship) is boring:

1. In Mexico City PRD leads everywhere, except Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo (where PAN is ahead). If anything, ther surprize is, how much like 2006 results these are. In Iztapalapa, the cite of the traveling circus I've talked about, PRD and PT are too close to call - that will be fun

2. In Nuevo Leon, PRI is still ahead in towns it governs, and PAN is ahead where it governs (including Monterrey City). However, there is something new: while the panista leads have been stable and narrowish, the similar PRI leads have, over the last month, grown sharply: from, roughly, the 50:45 to 60:35 ratios. As a result, in the gobernatorial contest, which has been a consistent statistical tie since before the campaign, the PRI candidate has now opened a lead: he has 50%, against the 44% for the panista. Recovering NL could have been the one panista success - and it seems to be harder and harder to achieve.

[ag]

I believed we were outside the poll publishing time, but here is a congressional poll from today's Milenio:

All voters:

PRI 35%
PAN 26.1%
PRD 14.1%
PVEM 4.3%
PT 3.1%
Panal 2.3%
Convergencia 1.3%
PSD 0.9%
Don't know/no answer 12.9%

Likely voters (expected turnout 38%)
PRI 39%
PAN 31%
PRD 15%
PVEM 5%
PT 4%
Panal 3%
Convergencia 2%
PSD 1%

Projected seat distribution (constituency FPTP seats + PR seats = Total)

PRI 172+65=237
PAN 77+71=148
PRD 47+34=81
PVEM 4+11=15
PT 0+9=9
Panal 0+5=5
Convergencia 0+5=5
PSD 0+0=0

If this happens, PRI+PVEM=simple majority!

[ag]

Voting starts in about 7 hours. I believe the voting hours are 8 AM to 8 PM, but, given that Mexico has 3 time zones, the official reports on the federal elections should start after 10 PM CST. Most state-level polls will be done by 8 PM CST, so the reports should start then.

[ag]

Voted today around 10 AM CST. At first glance, it seemed there were quite a few people at the polling station, but at closer inspection most of these were poll workers (there are 2 polling booths each at my precinct for the federal and city elections, each booth has 4 official workers and 3 more in reserve - a total of 28 poll workers for the 4 booths, and that's not counting the observers). In fact, while we were there, besides myself and my wife no more then 2 or 3 other people voted. A neighbor, who has been drafted as a poll worker told us we were early birds (2 hours after the polls opened). 38% turnout that the pollsters have forecast seems right to me.

[ag]

Though the voting is still going on, some polls started getting out. El Universal has the following poll numbers by Mitofsky for the Nuevo Leon governorship:

Medina (PRI) 50%
Elizondo (PAN) 45%
(PRD third at 3%)

[ag]

Same source, governorhips in some other states:

Campeche
PRI 50%
PAN 44%
PRD 2%

Colima
PRI 53%
PAN 42%

All three states would be PRI holds

[ag]

Apparently, state polls in NL close at 7 PM? Not clear on this.

PANistas claim preliminary exit polls show their victory.

[ag]

Preliminary exit polls seem to show PAN holding its only 2 (out of 16) borroughs in Mexico City

[ag]

Monterrey's El Norte says exit polls show the governoship too close to call. PAN holds the city of Monterrey.

[ag]

In Reforma PANistas claim they hold Queretaro and San Luis Potosi (that's, probably, fairly safe - if they don't they are cooked).

[ag]

Milenio has the following numbers as exit polls results (by GCE) on its front page:

Nuevo Leon governosrhip
PRI 51% (hold)
PAN 43%

Monterrey mayoralty - too close to call

Miguel Hidalgo borrough of Mexico City
PAN 43%
PRD 37%
(this was interesting, because, though the area is PAN-controlled, as it contains, together with some poorer areas, some of the richest neighborhoods in the city, PRD tried hard, running Mexico's most famous athlete, Ana Guevara, for mayoralty (delegado) and Guadalupe Loaeza, a popular left-wing columnist in the main right-wing newspaper (Reforma) for congress.

Benitor Juarez borrough (this is Mexico's middleclass heartland, PAN-controlled and safe)
PAN 42%
PRD 32%

[Kushahontas]

I love San Luis Potosi.

[ag]

En El Mural PRI claims winning the Guadalajara mayoralty! That would be big!

They also report a "defeatist ambience" in the panista headquarters in the city.

[ag]

For some unclear reason, the small rural municipality of Tuxcueca in Jalisco is done voting and counting! I don't know, whether it's an error, or what, but, if I am believe the preliminary results from the official site, PAN wins the mayoralty. But what a strange victory:

PAN 29.64%
PRI/PANAL 26.17%
PVEM 21.32%
PT 11.12%
PRD 10.55%

Overall, though, seems PAN is doing miserably in its Jalisco stronghold. Besides, apparently, loosing Guadalajara to PRI, PRD now claims to be picking-up Tlajomulco

[ag]

PRI claims to be 9% ahead of PAN in the exit polls (not yet formally out)

[ag]

PRI's Medina has declared himself the winner in NL - not even waiting for the polls to close.

[ag]

PAN claims victory in SLP

PAN claims to pick up the Cuajimalpa borrough from PRD in Mexico City (this is the city's outer fringe, which recently has seen some "rich" construction; there have been clashes there during the day)

[ag]

I must have been wrong: the polls must be closing earlier then 8 PM, but the main results will indeed start coming up in 15 minutes.

Seems like PAN is indeed loosing Guadalajara - they've ruled there since 1995. PRI also claims to be ahead in Tlaquepaque. This is a disaster for PAN in Jalisco!!

PAN is ahead in the suburb of Zapopan, though.

[ag]

First official results from Nuevo Leon. Just a couple of hundred votes so far. The only reason I put them up is because this is, probably, the only time during the night that PAN is ahead.

NL governorship
PAN 67%
PR 28.2%
PRD 1.8%
invalid votes 2.2%

Won't last

[Hash]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

[Kushahontas]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

[ag]

Couple more precincts in NL (still very early - PRI, probably, will be in the lead by the time they are done w/ 1% of the vote)

NL governorship
PAN 51.8%
PRI 39.5%
PRD 3.5%
invalid 3%

[ag]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

Since getting the citizenship, I'v voted twice (2006 and now). In total, there were 9 ballots between the two elections. I voted PRI on one of the nine