Marketology (TV Markets and Party Primaries)

[RBH]

My theory is that various geographic results in primaries can be linked to the television market.

In Missouri, the TV market map looks like this.

But the 2008 Gubernatorial primary map from Missouri shows us that Hulshof won the  Columbia, Kirksville, and Hannibal markets easily. It also shows a few things that don't match the border lines in the dishuser map.

For one, Saline County which is in the KC market and in Ike Skelton's district, went 70/24 for Hulshof.

Other counties of note not in the three stronghold markets or Hulshof's district are..

The five counties in SW MO won by Hulshof were all in the Joplin media market. Hulshof also did very well in the Cape Girardeau market, including three counties that he has family ties to (he grew up in Scott County).

But Hulshof also won Carroll, Linn, and Pettis Counties, all listed as in the KC market, but bordering Columbia.

Marshall, Missouri (Saline County) is covered by Windjammer for Cable, which carries both KC and Columbia affiliates for the big 4. Sedalia (Pettis County) is covered by Charter Communications which only carries Columbia's ABC affiliate. Carrollton (Carroll County) doesn't appear to have any Columbia TV ties but might get Columbia radio. Brookfield (Linn County) is covered by Suddenlink Communications which has Columbia's NBC affiliate.

So... there are some imperfections in regards to Marketology. Especially since we're not privy to the county-by-county ratings for various television stations.

[cinyc]

Remember that many people in the outlying rural counties are going to get their TV from satellite services, and not every small DMA is available on Dish Network or DirecTV.  For example, Dish Network doesn't appear to carry the Columbia/Jefferson City locals (although DirecTV does).  So Dish Network subscribers in areas with overlapping DMAs might get only the KC locals or even only the national locals (often the NYC and LA locals).

[Nym90]

Very interesting. This primary certainly saw some very sharp sectional differences.

I'm hoping Al will have time to do a national analysis of results by TV markets for 2008 in terms of swings and trends especially. There does seem to be quite a strong correlation in many places.

[bgwah]

There's definitely some noticeable correlation in Washington with the southern counties that are in the Portland market when it comes to referendums and initiatives.

On the other handl Eastern Washington is split very oddly ( http://www.dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/washington.gif ), however I cannot recall seeing any correlations along those lines.

[RI]

There's definitely some noticeable correlation in Washington with the southern counties that are in the Portland market when it comes to referendums and initiatives.

On the other handl Eastern Washington is split very oddly ( http://www.dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/washington.gif ), however I cannot recall seeing any correlations along those lines.

Some correlation:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=1992&f=0&off=3&elect=5
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=1992&f=0&off=5&elect=5

Interestingly enough, at first glance in this year's Republican presidential primary, although McCain won every county, he was strongest in the Seattle media market, Huckabee was strongest in the Portland media market, Romney was strongest in the Yakima media market, and Paul was strongest in the Spokane media market.
See: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=2008&f=0&off=0&elect=2

[bgwah]

^ Eh, those follow candidates' home districts/etc more than markets. Sid Morrison, for example, was 4th District Representative and naturally the areas he did well in correlate with his district--any media market correlation is probably just coincidence. Likewise, Bonker represented the 3rd district in SW Washington.

[RBH]

the lack of partisan primaries may mess with Washington's ability to back up that whole thing.

Partisanship trumps Market.

In partisan primaries, market means a lot